Campaigns with lots of small donors brag about it to cover up disappointing results.
Plouffe brings up the the basic points about polling this far out. He forgot one example though from 2004.
September 2003–5 1/2 months from election day
Hynes 10
Hull 9
Obama 8
Chico 7
Pappas not included
January 2004 2 months out
Hynes 14
Obama 14
Pappas 14
Hull 10
Survey USA January
Hynes 20
Obama 19
Hull 19
Pappas 18
Survey USA February
Hull 29
Hynes 19
Obama 19
Pappas 14
I was wrong on two counts during that race. First, I thought it would be a turnout race on election day. It wasn’t. Obama blew the field away. Second, I argued that Hull would be in a close race with Hynes and Obama at the end. With the shape of this primary season, money is going to be vital for Florida and then February 5th–more than in any other year. The ability to ramp up fundraising for those without a lot of money early on is going to be a real problem for those contests. Obama and Clinton clearly will have the resources, but not only will Edwards or any other candidate have to do well, they’ll have to run the table to get the free media they will need to compete while getting their fundraising in gear.
Few are paying attention right now. As we get into the fall and October and November, Obama will need to be increasing his numbers then, but for now, the fight is over organization and dollars–something he has put together before.