No. Will she have a tough reelection race? Absolutely. Will she lose? Maybe.
Comparisons to Mike Flanagan who held the 5th CD seat between Rosty and the Blagorgeous are rather poor though. To start with Flanagan wasn’t even running a serious campaign before the last coupe weeks when some polling turned up an opportunity. Bean ran in a targeted race for a second time putting down some serious effort to get to know the residents and the institutions of the 8th CD. Flanagan started with nothing, but a protest vote of Rosty, Bean starts with two grassroots campaigns and a ton of voter contact.
Further demographics are different. Bean faces a Republican district, but not one that is overwhelmingly so. I don’t have the 2004 numbers yet for the CDs, but for 2000, the Gore Bush numbers in the current 5th were 66-34 Gore. In the 8th the numbers for Gore Bush were 56-42 and I think that area trended just a tad more Democratic meaning probably around 55-45. A five point swing isn’t easy, but it’s also not a 2-1 disadvantage as Flanagan faced.
It’ll be a top tier race by both the DCCC and the RNCC too, but a President in the second term in the off year is weakest and the amazing level of evangelical voters are unlikely to appear while Dems are still highly motivated and angry.
On top of that, Bean will be able to raise much more money and the Republicans will likely have a divisive primary. Why? Because that’s what Republicans do in Illinois these days.
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