Pre-Primary: Bean D-IL-08
ArchPundit
Raised:$222977.67
Spent:$115531.98
COH: $1500266.65
Wow.
Pre-Primary: Stover D-IL-19
Gotta like the guy simply because he’s running against Shimkus.
First report so not much to say:
Raised:15940.22
Spent:10143.81
COH: 16796.41
Self Loans: 11,000
Pre-Primary: Pavich D-IL-11
Since he’s unopposed this isn’t a high impact report.
He gave back $6500 which is the only oddity–refunds of donations that were too large. It’s not that uncommon, but still unusual.
Raised:11145.18
Spent: 27117.03
COH:174939.53
Things that bring a smile to my face–$5000 each from UAW and SEIU. His fundraising is probably centered on March more than anything so this isn’t a very important report–the Union money is key and it’s primary money so he can go back to the well on March 22nd.
Pre-Primary: Lipinski D-IL-03
Raised: $41395.00
Spent: $36165.88
COH: $181590.69
This is just pitiful. Obviously I’m a Sullivan fan, but Lipinski should have been able to raise a half-million without much effort. He obviously isn’t making calls of any significant amount. Just more evidence of why he’s a hack.
The only reason Sullivan has a shot is because Lipinski is a horrid, horrid candidate.
A Comparison of A Grassroots Campaigns
Jeff Smith in 2004 was also an original Dean’s Dozen candidate in Missouri-03
For a total Jeff raised $437,519.86 which underperformed his target of $500,000, but he had enough to do most of what he wanted.
TV Ad Buys/production for the Cycle
$85,620
Radio Ad/Production Buys for the Cycle
$41,500
Direct Mail
$105,080
DVD/VHS Production
$12,000
$242,000 in media of different types. He also ran an incredibly effective ground operation.
My point is, complaining about the spending from Duckworth doesn’t hold any water with me. It should have been expected and it’s not extreme in any sense. Campaigns make choices and in the case of the Cegelis campaign they made a choice where their resources were going to go. Christine insisted to me, she was being very effective with the dollars in running the ground operation. That’s fine, but that’s a choice.
Duckworth’s media buys to date
TV (AKP)
$129,500
Direct Mail
$122,600
Total so far
$252,100
That’ll increase between the first of the month and the 21st, but the dollars so far aren’t something out of the ordinary other than the speed in which the money was raised.
One commenter said that Christine has sent out at least one piece now–and that makes sense, but she doesn’t have that much left to spend on it.
Media Retainer/Consultant/Legal/Accounting (Adelstein-Liston)
$23500
That’s a strategic choice and while I’m sure there will be some general mailings now, that’s a choice that the campaign has to live with and it has nothing to do with anything external.
I doubt it can be done–a strong field organization works with a savvy cost effective media strategy and in this case, the media strategy isn’t there. Now, if I’m wrong, Christina will win on the 21st, but either way the outcome that day will be due to strategic choices she made, not because of someone else in the race.
Biting the Heads off Chickens
Rich has a classic up in his first monthly Sun-Times column. Funniest damn thing I’ve read in a long time.
In Oberweis’ defense, he’s not Alan Keyes. However, he’s good enough to give me stuff for the next six months or so.
Handicapping this race in any normal environment, I have to give the advantage to Judy and Joe as a team. That said, given the ability of the Republican Party to have spasms of insanity, I’ll say the race is about even. That’s good for me, but bad for the state. The Governor needs a tough race. It’ll hold his feet to the fire at a minimum and he and his administration need that sort of pressure to force them to get their act together.
What if Oberweis is the nominee? Blagojevich is going to Disneyland.
And I’m getting good material.
UPDATE: As Rich points out, that’s biting the heads of kittens not chickens. I must have Ozzy on the brain.
Pre-Primary: Duckworth D-IL-06
Raised: 396828.11
Spent: 379213.93
COH: 121957.52
For the cycle that puts her at $517747.12
Before everyone starts the screaming (not if, but when) a half million bucks in a hotly contested primary isn’t much. She may hit $600,000, but that’s still not above expectations in many such races. Hell, McSweeney and Salvi are spending that much of their own money.
Any reasonable grass roots campaign would have planned to go toe to toe with an establishment candidate who was going to spend that much or more. There are only two things that are unusual. First, that the DCCC is this involved (Lapp sent in $250–I’m not thrilled about that, but it’s also to be expected and not nearly as much as Matsui sent to Carnahan in 2004) and how quickly Tammy has raised the cash.
The only other odd thing is how much of it can towards the media portion–because candidates who run over many months have some set costs, a higher proportion goes to those–in this case Duckworth is able to push it into more media. Her direct mail costs just aren’t that high for this sort of race.
More in a bit.
Pre-Primary Bizarre Report Winner John Kelly
He ‘raised’ $49,000, but didn’t disburse any money?
There appear to be three corporate donations which are illegal in federal elections.
His self loan is dislcosed in receipts, but no loan report is present.
Signs are reported as in-kind, but over $2100
A $15,000 in kind mailing from a printing company?
It could be incompetence or this clown is about to have a longer relationship with the FEC than his campaign has lasted.
His campaign wages are listed as in-kind?
I assume this is all just jumbled together crap, but this is beyond the typical incompetence for new campaigns.
Someone else is going to have to unravel the relationships between his donors and Lipinski, but this is a friggen disaster. If this guy isn’t a plant, he’s a clown.
Pre-Primary: Cegelis D-IL-06
Raised: $90317.44
Spent: $55197.62
COH: $74540.64
Decent raised amount, spending not so important now, but no general mailings to the public. None.
Koufax Awards
Actually several local blogs are nominated including Soap Box Chicago, though I’m still going with old school Off the Kuff