Raised: 396828.11
Spent: 379213.93
COH: 121957.52
For the cycle that puts her at $517747.12
Before everyone starts the screaming (not if, but when) a half million bucks in a hotly contested primary isn’t much. She may hit $600,000, but that’s still not above expectations in many such races. Hell, McSweeney and Salvi are spending that much of their own money.
Any reasonable grass roots campaign would have planned to go toe to toe with an establishment candidate who was going to spend that much or more. There are only two things that are unusual. First, that the DCCC is this involved (Lapp sent in $250–I’m not thrilled about that, but it’s also to be expected and not nearly as much as Matsui sent to Carnahan in 2004) and how quickly Tammy has raised the cash.
The only other odd thing is how much of it can towards the media portion–because candidates who run over many months have some set costs, a higher proportion goes to those–in this case Duckworth is able to push it into more media. Her direct mail costs just aren’t that high for this sort of race.
More in a bit.
Some Cegelis-Duckworth comparisons (doesn’t include 48-hour filings which are even more lopsided):
Only 18% of Duckworth contributions were below $200;
49% – nearly half – of Cegelis contributions were under $200;
1.5% of Duckworth itemized individual dollars were from District residents
Nearly 40% of Duckworth Itemized dollars from Chicago & North Shore Residents
64% of Cegelis Itemized individual dollars came from District residents
Duckworth raised less than $4,500 Itemized from only 8 residents of the
district.
Cegelis raised over $25,000 Itemized from 85 residents of the district.
Cegelis Total period receipts: $90,374
COH: $74,540
61% Period Burn rate
Duckworth total period receipts: $396,828
COH $121,957
96% Period Burn rate
(This shows that Duckworth isn’t raising money to take on Roskam, but throwing it all at Cegelis).
Donations (PAC & Individual) through DCCC conduit total: $46,800
DCCC in-kind for fundraising: $6.91 (?Huh?)
===Cegelis Total period receipts: $90,374
COH: $74,540
61% Period Burn rate
===Duckworth total period receipts: $396,828
COH $121,957
96% Period Burn rate
(This shows that Duckworth isn’t raising money to take on Roskam, but throwing it all at Cegelis).
Ummm..now is when you are supposed to have a high burn rate.
Duckworth (I*-IL)
I=interloper
“Tammy” is good at raising money?
Or big-name Dems are good at raising money for Tammy using Tammy’s bio?
Seriously, I could raise tens of thousands of dollars for my next build-a-bear project if I had letters going out from Obama, Kerry, and Pelosi. Does that make me “good” at raising money? Does that make me good at building bears??
No because Obama, Kerry, and Pelosi wouldn’t waste their time with your build-a-bear project.
I know everyone feels like they are the victims, but the reason Tammy was recruited by Durbin, Obama and Rahm is because they think she is a good candidate. It’s fine to disagree, but this isn’t because they sat around and thought, gee let’s make up a candidate. It’s because they saw a good candidate and pursued her. That her appeal worked with them doesn’t mean it doesn’t work for others as well. Treating her as some sort of tool of these folks drastically underestimates her abilities.
Larger donors and those who seek out larger donors say the difference is night and day between the reaction to the two candidates when they meet potential donors.
Duckworth is getting cash from all the big Dems: Pelosi, Hoyer, Emanuel and Reid; So much for a neutral establishment:
http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/03/il_6_duckworth_will_be_test_ca.html
Again, Archpundit is mistaking the effect for the cause.
Money coming in nationally for Duckworth is because she has used the free media to make her candidacy for IL-06 a national one.
Stories about Duckworth in the NYT, Washington Post, CBS Evening News, ABC, all made her profile visible to contributors from all over the country. Unlike Cegelis who has just strategically focused on keeping it local. Much to Cegelis ‘s detriment.
If Duckworth can raise $500,000 in three months, imagine what she can do from April to November.
Duckworth will be able to make this race competitive right through the electon in November. This is what the DCCC saw as a serious weakness in Cegelis. She wins the primary and she is toast.
“f Duckworth can raise $500,000 in three months, imagine what she can do from April to November.
Duckworth will be able to make this race competitive right through the electon in November. This is what the DCCC saw as a serious weakness in Cegelis. She wins the primary and she is toast.”
One problem with this: Duckworth raised this money with the help of every major Dem tapping large donors who have largely maxed out their contributions. If Duckworth succeeds in buying the election, she will have to build not only her donor base all over again, but her ground game from scratch as well.
Duckworth will have spent all her money taking out a Democrat – a great use of $500,000 – then she will be essentially starting over from the ground up. Roskam has his ground operation in place AND is sitting on a pile of cash. So while Duckworth continues to raise money, Roskam’s ground game – actually in the district – defines her with the local population who vote, and she plays catch up all the way to November.
Duckworth/Roskam is a terrible match up, and a sure loss for Democrats.
===One problem with this: Duckworth raised this money with the help of every major Dem tapping large donors who have largely maxed out their contributions. If Duckworth succeeds in buying the election, she will have to build not only her donor base all over again, but her ground game from scratch as well.
No, primary donations don’t count against general election limits. She can, and all candidates do, go right back to those who max out to a candidate once the primary is over.
Really, this whole thing about how much she’s spending–it’s not that much in a contested primary. Who wouldn’t expect a contested primary to have at least one budget of $600,000? Really–where has there been an open targeted district with a contested primary and at least one candidate didn’t have that much?
That no one seems to have expected it is perhaps the greatest sign to me that people had no idea how to run a strong campaign.
===Again, Archpundit is mistaking the effect for the cause.
Would you care to explain how I’m doing that?
The entire argument that the establishment ignored a good candidate is quickly becoming absurd as there is no money budgeted to use any media for the primary.