Presidential Race

Huge Turnout

Via Rich

Turnout Very High

Illinois board of elections officials were more willing to talk today about the weather than the voting, saying it’s too soon to get a strong bead on statewide turnout. But press them, and they say there’s little chance a light rain, mid-30s temps, and a possible freeze toward evening will keep the state from breaking a 15-year turnout record today.In Cook County, which encompasses most close-in Chicago suburbs, early ballots cast by suburban voters were, at 60,000, nearly double the county’s previous record of 32,000 cast in the 2006 gubernatorial election. The numbers featured a spike in young voter ballots and college absentee votes, said County Clerk David Orr. That bodes well for Obama, who polls indicate holds a double-digit lead over Hillary Clinton in his true-blue home state.

Cook County voter registration broke records as well, Orr said in a statement, with 1.35 million suburban Cook voters having registered before the deadline.

Turnout in Sangamon County, home of the capital city of Springfield, was also far exceeding turnout in previous years, election officials there said.

Illinois voters don’t typically turn out in huge numbers for primaries, Orr said — in the 2004 primary, barely 29% of registered voters cast ballots. But Orr predicted turnout to bust the 40 percent record set in the state in the 1992 primary, when Bill Clinton won.

High turnout helps Obama and it’ll help downballot with races like IL-3 where Mark Pera is running to beat Dan Lipinski.

Planned Parenthood Responds to Illlinois Now’s criticism of Obama

Via Rich

Planned Parenthood’s Blog 

A letter from Planned Parenthood/Chicago Area President and CEO, Steve Trombley:

I’m here to set the record straight about Barack Obama’s record on reproductive choice. Barack Obama has always been committed to a woman’s right to choose. He has a 100% pro-choice voting record both in the U.S. Senate and the Illinois Senate.

Barack Obama has NEVER wavered.

You wouldn’t know this from Illinois NOW’s recent statements on Obama’s record. The fact is that it is NOT Obama who has wavered, Illinois NOW is the one who’s changed its mind.

When Obama was an Illinois state senator he worked with Planned Parenthood to develop a strategy combating a series of extreme anti-choice measures designed to paint pro-choice legislators into a corner. Obama and numerous other state senators voted “present” on these bills in order to protest the politicization of the health and safety of Illinois women. Illinois is one of the few states that allows legislators to voice their objections to legislation through a “present” vote. These “present” votes are counted in the official roll call of the bill, and they DO affect the outcome. For all intents and purposes, they are a vote against the bill. As a matter of fact, Senator Obama wanted to vote “no” on these bills. But, he stood with his colleagues in protest against the anti-choice extremists who controlled the Illinois Senate at the time.

During his time as a state senator, no major pro-choice organization questioned Obama’s present votes. Instead, Obama received endorsements from Personal PAC, NARAL of Illinois PAC, the Illinois Planned Parenthood Council, and, YES, EVEN Illinois NOW.

That’s right! Illinois NOW endorsed Barack Obama in his elections in 1998 and 2002 AFTER he voted “present” on several bills. As Illinois NOW officials have stated, they were aware of the “present” vote strategy, and they still endorsed him. They also endorsed several other prominent Illinois politicians who voted the same way.

It is only after years have past that Illinois NOW has changed its mind. Apparently, these days they don’t agree with the strategy that they originally endorsed. Why didn’t they think that in 1998 or 2002?

I don’t know why Illinois NOW has changed its opinion of Barack Obama since his record has remained the same and since his time as a state senator, he has only demonstrated a full and steady commitment to choice.

I don’t take issue with Illinois NOW having a preference for a woman candidate for President. However, I do take issue with their distortion of Obama’s record.

My organization has not made an endorsement yet because we have two solidly 100% pro-choice candidates running for President. However, we feel it is important to defend Senator Obama (or any candidate) who has stood with us to protect our precious reproductive freedoms.

If we don’t defend people who stand with us, how can we ever expect them to be there when the going gets tough?

Amen.

Super Tuesday Illinois Democratic Presidential Primary

Obama is going to win, the question is by how much. There were concerns down south of Springfield for a while with Hillary polling well, but that appears to no longer be a problem.  Obama won’t do as well down there as in Chicago, but he apparently has a healthy lead.

Survey USA listed the numbers today at 66 30 and that seems about right to me–the only question was they had African-Americans making up 22% of the voting group, yet in 2004, they were higher than that.  The Survey USA poll that was closest to Obama’s final tally (and the only poll that close) had the percentage at 25%.
In fact, if you look at the Survey USA polls released across the board today, there’s a fairly significant drop in the percentage of African Americans included in the samples in all states with significant African-American populations. Most seem to be 3-5 points of African-Americans as a percentage of the population.

There are a few possible reasons for this. One is that African-Americans are less likely to vote come Tuesday.  Given Obama is on the ballot that is unlikely and counter to everything we’ve seen this cycle.

Or it could mean that samples are having a hard time being polled over the last few days and they are undercounted. If that’s the case, it could be a good day for Obama.

Super Tuesday Illinois Republican Presidential Primary

Illinois is made for a guy like McCain so he should take it walking away. Huckabee will get some of the Family Taxpayers Network crowd, but that’s not even close to a plurality in the Illinois GOP.

Romney is in the bizarre position of being hated by just about everyone including Porno Pete who is having a jihad against him for not hating gay people enough.

With Giuliani out, almost all of that support went to McCain and what little power is left will pull in a good victory for McCain.

The Illinois GOP is terrified of an Obama candidacy because he’ll wipe the floor with whatever guy is on the Republican side and McCain probably does the best in pulling out the base–which isn’t saying much.

The problem for the GOP is that if Obama is the nonimee, there will be an automatic bump in turnout for Democrats without having to work for it.  On the other hand a depressed Republican state party with no real candidate for US Senate is then stuck trying to defend state legislative seats with no one at the top of the ticket with any drawing power or any desire to even bother with Illinois and at least 3 Congressional races that could flip to Democratic with IL-14, IL-11, and IL-10.  Add to that, reasonably good candidates for Dems in IL-16, IL-6 and IL-18 and that’s a hell of a task for them to try and stem the bleeding. Oh, and an outside chance in IL-19.  The only truly safe seats for Republicans look to be IL-15 and IL-13 in such a situation. While some of the seats I identifiedd are very unlikely to flip other than the first three, those others will need resources–resources the national Republican Party doesn’t have nor does the Illinois State Republican Party.

Romney’s a Moron

He’s getting his ass kicked with the moderate GOP or at least what’s left of it and so he lumps McCain in with Obama. The thing is–Obama’s approval ratings with Republicans aren’t all that bad.  The last crosstab I can find had him at 41% approval by Republicans back in 2006 and I don’t think his overall rating has changed very much.

So Romney may do well with conservatives with that tactic, but he already is–he needs to capture the less ideological Republicans who generally find Obama to be a decent guy.

Illinois NOW Tries to Lie It’s Way Out

Here’s Gay Bruhn’s claim about the present votes:

Sorry — That’s not record for the bills we are questioning. Look up SB1094, SB1095, and SB1096 also known as the born alive bills.

This is quite funny given Illinois NOW had this up on their web site.:

Obama Was Present, But He Was Not There On Issues That Mattered to Illinois Women

In celebration of Women’s History Month, March 28, 2007, the National Organization for Women Political Action Committee, NOW PAC, announced its endorsement of Hillary Clinton for President (see article below).

Illinois NOW PAC supported the endorsement of Senator Clinton. “She is, after all, our native sister,” said Bonnie Grabenhofer, president of Illinois NOW. “We know from her record and in her heart she will be there for us.”

Senator Clinton has a long history of support for women’s empowerment, and her public record is a testimony to her leadership on issues important to women in the U.S. and around the globe. She has eloquently articulated the need for full economic, political and social equality for women in every institution of society, taking action throughout her career — as a lawyer, community leader, First Lady, Senator and candidate for the presidency — to advance the civil and human rights of women and girls.

After looking at his record, Grabenhofer does not feel the same way about Illinois Senator Barack Obama.

During Senator Obamas 2004 senate campaign, the Illinois NOW PAC did not recommend the endorsement of Obama for U.S. Senate because he refused to stand up for a woman’s right to choose and repeatedly voted ‘present’ on important legislation.

As a State Senator, Barack Obama voted ‘present’ on seven abortion bills, including a ban on ‘partial birth abortion,’ two parental notification laws and three ‘born alive’ bills. In each case, the right vote was clear, but Senator Obama chose political cover over standing and fighting for his convictions.

“When we needed someone to take a stand, Senator Obama took a pass,” said Grabenhofer. “He wasn’t there for us then and we don’t expect him to be now.”

For more information on the endorsement go to www.nowpac.org ++

So Bruhn identified three Born Alive Protection Act votes, but didn’t mention the two parental notification bills and 2 late term abortion bills. Perhaps she’d like to explain what the parental notification bills Illinois NOW identified in the press release are different from SB 562 in which Lisa Madigan voted present as well.

Of course, the entire response did not respond to Lisa Madigan who agreed the strategy was used and supported it.

It also ignores that Obama refused to even call the Born Alive Protection Act while he was Committee Chair after 2002 and so effectively killed the bill by himself.

Seriously, you have tried this canard for 4 years. And you still cannot get the story straight.

Illinois NOW Needs Some Help Finding Their Asses with Two Hands

Below Gay Bruhn argues that Obama abandoned the pro-choice community by voting present. I then asked her why the endorsed Lisa Madigan:

ArchPundit Says:

February 2nd, 2008 e

===By reacting so emotionally you missed the real message: that when the time came to vote Obama took a pass. He did not vote as he promised us he would. That’s it. We needed him — he wasn’t there.

So why did you endorse Lisa Madigan?

gbruhn Says:

She didn’t use this strategy on these bills.

gbruhn Says:

Attorney General Madigan voted no on the bills in question. To my knowledge she has never used this strategy.

ArchPundit Says:

The New York Times

December 20, 2007 Thursday
Correction Appended
Late Edition – Final

It’s Not Just ‘Ayes’ and ‘Nays’: Obama’s Votes in Illinois Echo

Lisa Madigan, the Illinois attorney general who was in the Illinois Senate with Mr. Obama from 1998 through 2002, said she and Mr. Obama voted present on the anti-abortion bills.

‘’It’s just plain wrong to imply that voting present reflected a lack of leadership,’’ Ms. Madigan said. ‘’In fact, it was the exact opposite.’’

ArchPundit Says:
The Associated Press State & Local Wire

April 6, 2001, Friday, BC cycle

BYLINE: By The Associated Press

SECTION: State and Regional

LENGTH: 269 words

The Illinois Senate voted 39-7 Friday for SB562, a measure requiring parental notification before minors obtain abortions. Voting “yes” were 30 Republicans and 9 Democrats. Voting “no” were 7 Democrats. Voting “present” were 1 Republican and 10 Democrats.
REPUBLICANS VOTING YES

Bomke (Springfield); Burzynski (Sycamore); Cronin (Elmhurst); Dillard (Hinsdale); Donahue (Quincy); Dudycz (Chicago); Geo-Karis (Zion); Hawkinson (Galesburg); Wendell Jones (Palatine); Karpiel (Carol Stream); Klemm (Crystal Lake); Lauzen (Aurora); Luechtefeld (Okawville); Robert Madigan (Lincoln); Mahar (Orland Park); Noland (Blue Mound); O’Malley (Palos Park); Parker (Northbrook); Peterson (Long Grove); Petka (Plainfield); Philip (Wood Dale); Radogno (LaGrange); Rauschenberger (Elgin); Roskam (Glen Ellyn); Sieben (Geneseo); Sullivan (Park Ridge); Syverson (Rockford); Thomas Walsh (LaGrange Park); Watson (Greenville); Weaver (Urbana)

DEMOCRATS VOTING YES

Clayborne (East St. Louis); DeLeo (Chicago); Demuzio (Carlinville); Munoz (Chicago); O’Daniel (Mount Vernon); Shadid (Edwards); Viverito (Burbank); Lawrence Walsh (Elwood); Woolard (Carterville)

DEMOCRATS VOTING NO

Cullerton (Chicago); Halvorson (Crete); Lightford (Chicago); Ronen (Chicago); Shaw (Chicago); Silverstein (Chicago); Trotter (Chicago)

REPUBLICANS VOTING PRESENT

Myers (Danville)

DEMOCRATS VOTING PRESENT

Bowles (Edwardsville); del Valle (Chicago); Hendon (Chicago); Jacobs (East Moline); Emil Jones (Chicago); Link (Highwood); Lisa Madigan (Chicago); Molaro (Chicago); Obama (Chicago); Welch (Peru)

PERSON: LAWRENCE E WALSH (54%);

COUNTRY: UNITED STATES (92%);

STATE: ILLINOIS, USA (92%);

CITY: CHICAGO, IL, USA (91%);

SUBJECT: VOTERS & VOTING (90%); ABORTION (78%); Abortion Notification-Senate Roll

LOAD-DATE: April 7, 2001

LANGUAGE: ENGLISH

Don’t bring junk in here…