Presidential Race

Make It Stop…..

ArchPundit November 20, 2007 3 Comments

The Hillary Clinton Campaign reminds me of everything wrong with the Gore and Kerry campaign (I remember how shitty the Gore campaign was, not the revisionist history version of Al Gore being all that is good):

Step Six: Swarm the Clinton staffer. “Can you bring her out?” Lynn Sweet, who usually covers Barack Obama for the Chicago Sun-Times, will ask. See the Clinton staffer chuckle. Chuckle nervously yourself. “I’m serious,” Sweet will say. “Can we have a press availability?” The Clinton staffer will agree to check on that. When she leaves, do not hold your breath. “Anybody with a pad and pen is dangerous,” one veteran reporter will say. “Camera, good. Pen, bad.” “The last time HRC acknowledged our existence was, like, last Sunday in Waterloo, Iowa at 4:00 p.m.,” another will add. Act shocked when the Clinton staffer returns with your answer: “Nope, sorry, not today.”

That’s Lynn Sweet, third from the right. The rest of the press is in its holding pen

Were there actual fences holding the rest of you in?

More from Strategic Vision

ArchPundit September 29, 2007 No Comments

Their Wisconsin poll shows the general population wanting a rapid withdrawal as well:

6. Would you like to see the United States withdraw all troops from Iraq within six months?
Yes 65%
No 26%
Undecided 9%

Roughly that is pretty similar to what the Iowa raw numbers would be.

Below are the results of a three-day poll of likely voters in the state of Wisconsin. Results are based on telephone interviews with 800 likely voters in Wisconsin, aged 18+, and conducted September 14-16, 2007. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

1. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush’s overall job performance?
Approve 23%
Disapprove 70%
Undecided 7%

2. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush’s handling of the economy?
Approve 22%
Disapprove 69%
Undecided 9%

3. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq?
Approve 19%
Disapprove 74%
Undecided 7%

4. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush’s handling of the war on terrorism?
Approve 49%
Disapprove 43%
Undecided 8%

It strikes me that the Midwest looks to be very hostile to Republicans this cycle given these overall numbers.

Fascinating Polling from Iowa

ArchPundit September 29, 2007 3 Comments

Strategic Vision (R) did a poll of likely caucus voters in Iowa and it’s fascinating

4. Do you favor a withdrawal of all United States military from Iraq within the next six months? (Republicans Only)
Yes 53%
No 37%
Undecided 10%

I don’t support a six month withdrawal because it wouldn’t be safe for our troops, but that is how widely unpopular the war is with many Republicans.

I’m only starting to take state polls seriously since people are only beginning to pay attention–Iowa looks to be a three way race.

5. If the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus were held today between, Joeseph Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote? (Democrats Only; Names Rotated)
Hillary Clinton 24%
John Edwards 22%
Barack Obama 21%
Bill Richardson 13%
Joseph Biden 4%
Chris Dodd 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Undecided 14%

6. Do you favor a withdrawal of all United States military from Iraq within the next six months? (Democrats Only)
Yes 84%
No 7%
Undecided 9%

The top three don’t actually propose a six month time frame so this is a fascinating finding.

Giuliani Falling In Polls and One Guy Caught It Early

ArchPundit September 12, 2007 No Comments

Many predicted it, but Charles Franklom actually suggested the polling evidence was there:

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Will Giuliani be the next McCain?

Last week I looked at the collapse of the McCain campaign. Not the collapse of money and staff, but the loss of public support that is at the root of the campaign’s failure. Judging by the trend we’ve seen in McCain’s support since November that failure has been clearly coming for some time.

But what about the Republican “front runner”, Rudy Giuliani? While he has consistently remained ahead in polls of Republican voters, and his campaign is in infinitely better financial shape than McCain’s, Giuliani’s trend in support is eerily similar to McCain’s downward trajectory.

Since early March, Giuliani’s support has fallen by an estimated 8 percentage points. McCain’s fell by 10 points since January. And the rate of decline has been a bit steeper for Giuliani than for McCain. The saving grace for Giuliani has been that he started his decline from a higher point, around 33%, while McCain’s slump started down from 25%.

Giuliani’s national slide is also mirrored in the early primary states, as is the case with McCain.

Read the whole thing. Giuliani’s campaign responded, but the continuing problems Giuliani faces in the polls suggests Charles was correct.