Obama

No Evidence of Racial Slippage

One thing that everyone is overlooking in the New Hampshire polls is that they were largely correct--No really:

Pollster.com is run by two academic pollsters with Charles Franklin creating estimates of the polling based on aggregating the different polls.

Obama estimate 36.7% from Pollster.com
Obama actual vote:  36%

Edwards estimate: 18.4%
Edwards actual vote:  17%

There are several reasons to think racial slippage didn't happen in New Hampshire. That the polls nailed the two other major candidates should tell us that what happened wasn't strange in terms of the polling, but what happened after the polling was complete.  We had a significant event after most of the polling was done with the Hillary moment that was covered on all the national media including the top three national newscasts on the networks.

There are rules of thumbs about how undecideds break and while those rules of thumbs were not accurate this time, there's a very good reason that may be the case--a flurry of coverage over Clinton that was unsympathetic, but at the same time created a sympathetic backlash.

On top of that, we are talking about a Northern State in a Democratic Primary where the effect is the least likely to be observed.   And it is far from a universal effect with the opposite generally being observed in Illinois even during general elections. Obama and Moseley Braun have done better in primaries than the final polls demonstrate and I believe Jesse White has as well, but I don’t have the numbers handy.

Then again, the national media is still howling about the polling being so off by talking about the gap between Clinton and Obama when the support for Obama was dead on.

Blair Hull Enters the New Hampshire Race

TPM Election Central has a new mailer put out by the Hull for Senate Campaign errr…Clinton campaign:

The Obama campaign replied with Rich, Zorn, and I largely recycling the 2004 material.

The vapidness of the argument is explained when Rich quoted me on his post–essentially these same bills that he voted present on (as did Emil Jones and Lisa Madigan once she was in the Illinois Senate) are the ones that he killed singlehandedly as Committee Chair once the Dems took the Illinois Senate.  It’s a bit bizarre to claim he’s ducking those votes when once he had the chance, he took the entire heat on the bills.

One theory is that Assistant Clinton Campaign Manager Mike Henry is having PTSD flashbacks  to his role as Campaign Manger for Blair Hull as Clinton numbers implode in New Hampshire.
Though I think most of us can understand if she hit Bill at sometime in the past.

Left Wing Intellectuals in Hyde Park

Watch out for those folks at Harold’s Chicken Shack—Clinton thinks it makes Barack unelectable:

Hillary’s aides point to Obama’s extremely progressive record as a community organizer, state senator and candidate for Congress, his alliances with “left-wing” intellectuals in Chicago’s Hyde Park community, and his liberal voting record on criminal defendants’ rights as subjects for examination.

So he is progressive (I forget because the argument changes every day), he is an intellectual, and he believes in the Constitution.

The horror, the horror.

Peters on Obama

I’ve probably discussed this several times, but Charles Peters takes a look at Obama’s passage of the bill to videotape confessions to murders.

This seemed likely to stop the beatings, but the bill itself aroused immediate opposition. There were Republicans who were automatically tough on crime and Democrats who feared being thought soft on crime. There were death penalty abolitionists, some of whom worried that Obama’s bill, by preventing the execution of innocents, would deprive them of their best argument. Vigorous opposition came from the police, too many of whom had become accustomed to using muscle to “solve” crimes. And the incoming governor, Rod Blagojevich, announced that he was against it.

Obama had his work cut out for him.

He responded with an all-out campaign of cajolery. It had not been easy for a Harvard man to become a regular guy to his colleagues. Obama had managed to do so by playing basketball and poker with them and, most of all, by listening to their concerns. Even Republicans came to respect him. One Republican state senator, Kirk Dillard, has said that “Barack had a way both intellectually and in demeanor that defused skeptics.”

The police proved to be Obama’s toughest opponent. Legislators tend to quail when cops say things like, “This means we won’t be able to protect your children.” The police tried to limit the videotaping to confessions, but Obama, knowing that the beatings were most likely to occur during questioning, fought — successfully — to keep interrogations included in the required videotaping.

By showing officers that he shared many of their concerns, even going so far as to help pass other legislation they wanted, he was able to quiet the fears of many.

Obama proved persuasive enough that the bill passed both houses of the legislature, the Senate by an incredible 35 to 0. Then he talked Blagojevich into signing the bill, making Illinois the first state to require such videotaping.

And he proved me wrong.  The longest, most indepth post I wrote on this is lost in the archives of Political State Report, but I pretty much announced that after Ryan commuted all of the death sentences any chance for reform were dead because of the outrage that would follow.
I was wrong–very, very wrong and while other people like Tom Cross were positive forces for death penalty reform, Obama really put the reforms together and moved them forward.  It was an amazing feat and one that really caught my attention as I observed it.  I didn’t think it was possible and everytime a snag was hit, I thought it proved I was right and that while I am against the death penalty, the commutations were counter productive.

Obama pulled it off pulling along important constituencies and working hard.  I had always been impressed with him before then, but it is what really sold me on him by the time the 2004 Senate race picked up.

There are a couple interesting takes on this with Kevin Drum quoting me and Atrios thinking maybe Obama does have more of a plan than most bloggers thought.

My point isn’t that he’s perfect, but that he’s a lot more talented than appears on the surface. That probably can be said about other candidates as well, but there’s this weirdly effective Zen that surrounds Obama that most reminds me of Phil Jackson of all the odd comparisons I can make.

The race for the nomination has a long ways to go and I don’t think it should be assumed he has a free ride in anyway, shape, or form.  However, watching opponents either be co-opted or fall apart as the challenge him (other than Bobby Rush) there’s something about the way he leads and campaigns that involves a level of understated effectiveness that is very rare.

I can’t explain it, I can only offer the stages that I’ve observed over and over again as commmenter Tucker McElroy defined some time ago:

We’ve seen the stages before because we’re from here, but it’s fun to watch the national press go through it all over again.

1. Holy shit, you’ve got to hear this guy speak.
2. Holy shit, this guy was the first African American editor of the Harvard Law Review. Everyone we talk to says he’s really smart.
3. Holy shit, in his book he talks about doing blow, this could hurt him big time.
4. Holy shit, the right is going bonkers (He’s not really black because he wasn’t decendant from slaves – Keyes, His middle name is Hussein – tv right, Holy shit he’s in our church – religious political right, He’s a false messiah and the anti-Christ – nutjob right)
5. Holy shit, everywhere you look people are wild about Barack Obama. Don’t they know he did blow and HIS MIDDLE NAME IS HUSSEIN?
6. Holy shit, he won huge.
7. Holy shit, I can’t believe I lost like that. But at the end of the day I can’t really be too upset about it because I like the guy. (Dan Hynes 2004, Hillary Clinton 2008)