I’m kind of cheating given the polls are open, but I was busy yesterday:
Obama 48%
Clinton 22%
Edwards 23%
Richardson 7%
I thought about being cute and saying 53%, but I can’t make the numbers work out for the others.
Call It A Comeback
I’m kind of cheating given the polls are open, but I was busy yesterday:
Obama 48%
Clinton 22%
Edwards 23%
Richardson 7%
I thought about being cute and saying 53%, but I can’t make the numbers work out for the others.
I’ve got 44o-28c-21e-6r-1 other. I don’t see how edwards gets that much of the undecided vote. Nor how Clinton falls that far.
Knowing some of the turnout, I’m cheating. Turnout appears to be through the roof so Edwards should get a bit of that and given likely voters are the most likely for Clinton she won’t fair as well once the other voters are out there.
Of course, it’s just a guess so who knows.
Yeah, but on what kind of turnout? 😉 Sounds like it’s going to be a huge day for the Dems. Wonder how much play that will get amongst the talking heads.
Clinton wins.
Uh, it is Monday morning quarterbacking…..but don’t independents when they get in the privacy of a voting machine tend to not vote for minorities around 3-5% (or more) than they said they would. Can that and Hillary’s stronger ground game than Iowa be the reason?
Michael Whouley strikes again !!!
In Illinois racial slippage doesn’t happen. In fact, black candidates tend to do better on election day than the polls predict. Of course, we are talking about New Hampshire, but I tend to think that Northern Democratic primaries that doesn’t happen much.
We’ll have to wait on more exit polling information, but my guess is that there was a media backlash.
Never underestimate the power of a good urban political GOTV machine. From the sounds of it, Clinton did very well in Manchester and Obama did well in less urban areas.
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BS asks, “don’t independents when they get in the privacy of a voting machine tend to not vote for minorities around 3-5% (or more) than they said they would”
That’s called the “Wilder Effect” and it didn’t happen in Iowa and likely didn’t happen in New Hampshire either.
Also, as ‘analysts’ are discussing, many of the independents who leaned to Obama may have thought he had it in the bag thanks to influence of pre-primary polling and thus may have crossed over to McCain.
When the difference between Clinton and Obama is only a few thousand votes in a relatively small voter pool … even a few independents crossing over to McCain would impact the result.