Call It A Comeback
Oh my….Kristen McQueary has the scoop on what could be the worst outcome since Ashcroft becoming Attorney General. If Bean were to knock him off, then it falls to Hyde–another reason to vote for Cegelis as well–unless you want the next US Attorney to be primarily concerned with ignoring abortion rights.
Donate!
Obama to the right.
Bean to the left
Renner here until I get the ad back up!
Give if you can. Every dollar to Obama increases available funds for Florida, South Carolina, Colorado, North Carolina, etc.
Bean is in a tough race and has so far stayed even with long-time incumbent, Phil Crane. She’s fiscally responsible and socially moderate, a perfect fit for that District versus a right-wing ideologue.
Tari Renner is running against a big money conservative in a district that is winnable (profile to come later in the week).
How do all the conservative Christians at the Leader feel about his ties to a cult leader who declared himself the Messiah? I know I’d be voting for whatever gadfly is running against Danny Davis if I was in his District.
Quote of the article
Oh, yes. . . I have always viewed Democrats as potentially salvageable
No comment.
Phil does take a stab at whole language instruction, but unfortunately for him, his ideas are about 40 years out of date–most research today suggests whole language and phonics are both successful depending on the student. (education policy snark).
Maybe tomorrow’s edition will tell us of something he’s actually done!
I’m guessing there is a good shot at two with a third running as an outside shot. The first of four posts takes a look at two seats I think are hot for takeover, one that is coming up, and the others seats with challengers. The series is motivated by Dan Johnson-Weinbergers challenge that none of these seats are winnable and so we should redistrict mid-decade–an idea I hate, but that is for another day.
First, is Melissa Bean, the hottest race in Illinois.
Bean took on Crane in what seemed like a hopeless race two years ago with a limited budget and a lot of hard work. She came in at 43% to his 57% while spending $500,000 less on the campaign. That was his lowest percentage since 1992.
The District leans Republican with Bush getting 56% of the vote in 2000–that is in the new District’s boundaries for 2002–National Journal reports all districts as such. Gore/Other got 44%.
Off-hand this doesn’t seem to be the easiest target, but for several reasons the District is considered a high profile race by pundits and the party. As mentioned below, Hastert has called on other Republicans to help Crane.
An important thing to understand about the power of incumbency is the impact of name recognition and years of getting that name out there as well as opportunities through constituent service to make contact.
The problem is that in a District that straddles Lake and McHenry and is experiencing rapid population growth and many of those people don’t know Crane. In addition, he gets a part of Northwestern Cook he didn’t have before including Hoffman Estates, Schaumburg and the Cook portion of Elgin. That area is part of Steve Rauschenbergers State Senate District with that specific area being the area he had the toughest job with in 2002. He did well in the Kane are of Elgin, but the Hoffman Estates area was more Democratic. Crane only got the more Democratic area.
On a personal note, my sister, the conservative Republican Willow-Creek going, small business owner was impressed with Melissa Bean when they met. Of course, she doesn’t often vote.
So while the District is Republican, it is relatively new to Crane and the many residents are new to the area period in the Lake and McHenry areas.
But to make it more attractive, Lake County is one of the Counties highlighted in The Emerging Democratic Majority by John Judis and Ruy Teixiera. Lake in 1988: Bush 64 Dukakis 36
Lake in 2000: Bush 50 Gore 48
To now, we know that Bean ran a credible challenge 2 years ago with far less money, the traditional name recognition advantage is largely neutralized in a new district that is rapidly growing, and the overall composition is becoming close to a toss up.
Demographically, the District is not a slam dunk. Certainly, a liberal Democrat isn’t going to take that District. One thing to note is that the District is nearly as safe as they could make it, but it still isn’t that safe.
But a moderate Democrat against a wingnut fossil is a different story. Crane isn’t just your run of the mill Republican, he is first generation wingnut who cut his teeth on the Goldwater campaign and never looked back.
Rankings 2002
American Conservative Union 100
National Tax Limitation Committee 100
Christian Coalition 100
Chamber of Commerce 94
And you can look down a few posts for the high esteem he is held by the Gun Owners of America which is to the right of the NRA.
He did pull of 13 % rating from the LCV, but I’m sure he regrets it.
Does he fit his District? No, No, and No. A moderate to a moderate conservative Republican would probably tough to take out in the District. Mark Kirk would probably be perfect in fact, if he wouldn’t be knocked out in the primary.
To give some examples of his extremism, he doesn’t believe in instant background checks on gun sales. He doesn’t seem to think that felons should be prohibited from owning firearms.
And in one of the oddest rulings, he supported drilling in Lake Michigan where much of the District gets its water. On Superfund, he has voted against the principle of polluter pays–while Superfund needs reform, that isn’t the kind of reform it needs.
Those are saleable issues in a moderately Republican District.
Making matters worse, Crane has been AWOL in the District. I pointed out some recent examples–especially LaHood’s comments. A key reason for incumbent strength is constituent service and Crane hasn’t done much of it. So bad, that a more moderate Republican challenger got 31% of the vote–most challenges to incumbents come from the extreme of a party, not from the center. Something about moderation being, well, moderate.
And the final weakness comes in a set of symbolic issues he has positioned himself on.
First, he gets most of his money from PACs. While PACs have been off the radar recently, they still are an effective target for a challenger.
Second, he has been there for years. Everyone hates the Congressman who has been there, but hasn’t made contact personally.
Third, Medicare rantings. Never make the old people who vote mad, even if you are one. Ask Rosty.
Fourth, 5 FEC disavowel notices. Five. Did I say five. With 18 terms don’t you think someone could get the paperwork right?
Fifth, he misrepresented several newspaper endorsements.
The amateur campaign guy in me already has the commercials running in my mind to run against the guy–and the direct mail…..oooooooohhhhh.
On the other side of the equation, Bean has several things going for her. A compelling story that fits her District–a successful professional woman with a family who is bright and has done something in the private sector in the last 30 years. She has name recognition from her first race. She is moderate being fiscally responsible and socially moderate–a good mix for the professional class moving into the district. And she has party support. Just today she was a featured race in the DTripC e-mail (okay, so they extensively quoted me and stroked my ego, but she was going to be featured anyway).
So yeah, this is a winnable District. The incumbent has an advantage, but they always do. Bean has already outraised what she spent last time–actually she did that by the primary. Crane is in fundraising trouble. As it is clear that he is on the downward end of his career and he will never be Ways and Means Chair–a slight that is telling of his low esteem amongst his colleagues, he isn’t getting as much from PACs and he has no small donor base. He doesn’t have the extensive nationwide mailing campaign set to go for him and an entire younger generation of wingnuts are the big names in mailing.
Bean is perfectly suited to challenge Phil Crane (R-Fossil). And she just might beat the guy with energy, moderation and ideas. So go help her out with either money or time (hint upper left).
Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) is asking Illinois Republicans to do everything possible to help Rep. Phil Crane (R-Ill.) beat back a strong challenge from Democrat Melissa Bean, Rep. Ray LaHood (R-Ill.) said late last week.
But that isn’t all, Ray LaHood gives a great quote about the problem:
?It?s a race to watch,? LaHood said. ?Every year there?s the November surprise, and a lot of people are worried that the November surprise could be Phil Crane. The problem is he just has not really worked [his district] that well, and he hasn?t paid attention to it.?
Crane is a relic and a right wing nutter of a relic at that. And the GOP is worried. Hastert is doing a fundraiser for him on 6/27. Apparently Crane can’t raise money other than from PACs that owe him for years of service, so for those that can–look up to the left hand corner and donate to Melissa Bean to ensure the Speaker can’t beat her.
Why? Well the sharks are in the water after the LaHood quote and it has me thinking about it. Who says piling on is bad..
I wrote not long ago that Crane was interesting in that he appears to be well to the right of the NRA on guns. He doesn’t believe in former felons being restricted from gun ownership nor does he believe in background checks. Both positions the NRA is comfortable with.
However, one group is right in line with Crane and that is the Gun Owners of America. Set up by wingnut extraordinaire Larry Pratt. They are against essentially any restriction on firearm ownership. How do the rate Phil Crane? A. Top of the Illinois class, congratulations Phil! Way to go. Closest to him? Manzullo at A and Rural MoC Shimkus at A-.
Hyde C-
Biggert C-
Weller C-
Kirk F
Johnson B
LaHood B-
Hastert C-
Closest too him–Kirk F, Hastert C-, Hyde C-
How bad are Crane’s problems? Well, in 1969 they weren’t so bad, but today is 2004.
Though I’ll say that Melissa Bean isn’t that liberal. She’s fiscally responsible and moderate on social issues–a good fit in that evolving district.
The Leader is reporting that Bill Lipinski is stepping down and working to hand the seat over to Dan Lipinski, a PhD from Duke who teaches at University of Tennessee (a university much maligned for its rather moronic law school faculty that blogs). I’ve heard Dan is a nice guy and bright who is a stellar teacher and researcher, though I can’t be too excited about handing over a seat to a son.
I believe there is only one other PhD in political science currently serving in Congress though Jeff Smith running in the 3rd essentially is editing his dissertation down so that he might well be a PhD by the time he takes office.
Generally, a PhD in Political Science means one is likely to have a five sided discussion with oneself and thus is a disqualifier for public office.
Dan Johnson-Weinberger challenges the notion that any of the current Republican Seats can be picked up by Dems this cycle.
But first Dan, the first rule of speeding on 55 is get behind the Lege plates and draft them–they’ll think you are together and not even think about pulling you over.
But back to the point–four of the Districts are competitive in general for Dems and three in particular this cycle with decent challengers. My rankings of the likelihood of those upsets are
1) Bean
2) Renner
3) Cegelis
I’ll cover the details in the next couple days, but all three have a reasonable shot and Bean has the extra factor of being especially well suited to the district. When you look at the Gore-Bush numbers in 2000 (adjusted for new districts) all three are possible pickups.
In terms of asking DeLay–rumors are Mr. DeLay will be having his attorney doing most of the speaking for a while….
From the Tari Renner newsletter:
On June 10, the group Democratic Leadership for the Twenty-First Century will be holding an event to benefit Renner for Congress in Chicago. The event will take place at Leona’s restaurant in Chicago. Tickets for this event are $30 or $100 to become a sponsor of the event. If you would like more information about this upcoming event please call us at (309) 829-VOTE.
I’d rank Renner second in the chance for an Illinois pick-up in the US House this election behind Bean and just ahead of Cegelis. Renner’s fundraising is doing well, but Jerry Weller is known for raising lots of cash. So help him out if you can. Click the ad to the bottom right for more info.
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