Can Dems Take A House Seat in Illinois?

I’m guessing there is a good shot at two with a third running as an outside shot. The first of four posts takes a look at two seats I think are hot for takeover, one that is coming up, and the others seats with challengers. The series is motivated by Dan Johnson-Weinbergers challenge that none of these seats are winnable and so we should redistrict mid-decade–an idea I hate, but that is for another day.

First, is Melissa Bean, the hottest race in Illinois.

Bean took on Crane in what seemed like a hopeless race two years ago with a limited budget and a lot of hard work. She came in at 43% to his 57% while spending $500,000 less on the campaign. That was his lowest percentage since 1992.

The District leans Republican with Bush getting 56% of the vote in 2000–that is in the new District’s boundaries for 2002–National Journal reports all districts as such. Gore/Other got 44%.

Off-hand this doesn’t seem to be the easiest target, but for several reasons the District is considered a high profile race by pundits and the party. As mentioned below, Hastert has called on other Republicans to help Crane.

An important thing to understand about the power of incumbency is the impact of name recognition and years of getting that name out there as well as opportunities through constituent service to make contact.

The problem is that in a District that straddles Lake and McHenry and is experiencing rapid population growth and many of those people don’t know Crane. In addition, he gets a part of Northwestern Cook he didn’t have before including Hoffman Estates, Schaumburg and the Cook portion of Elgin. That area is part of Steve Rauschenbergers State Senate District with that specific area being the area he had the toughest job with in 2002. He did well in the Kane are of Elgin, but the Hoffman Estates area was more Democratic. Crane only got the more Democratic area.

On a personal note, my sister, the conservative Republican Willow-Creek going, small business owner was impressed with Melissa Bean when they met. Of course, she doesn’t often vote.

So while the District is Republican, it is relatively new to Crane and the many residents are new to the area period in the Lake and McHenry areas.

But to make it more attractive, Lake County is one of the Counties highlighted in The Emerging Democratic Majority by John Judis and Ruy Teixiera. Lake in 1988: Bush 64 Dukakis 36
Lake in 2000: Bush 50 Gore 48

To now, we know that Bean ran a credible challenge 2 years ago with far less money, the traditional name recognition advantage is largely neutralized in a new district that is rapidly growing, and the overall composition is becoming close to a toss up.

Demographically, the District is not a slam dunk. Certainly, a liberal Democrat isn’t going to take that District. One thing to note is that the District is nearly as safe as they could make it, but it still isn’t that safe.

But a moderate Democrat against a wingnut fossil is a different story. Crane isn’t just your run of the mill Republican, he is first generation wingnut who cut his teeth on the Goldwater campaign and never looked back.

Rankings 2002
American Conservative Union 100
National Tax Limitation Committee 100
Christian Coalition 100
Chamber of Commerce 94

And you can look down a few posts for the high esteem he is held by the Gun Owners of America which is to the right of the NRA.

He did pull of 13 % rating from the LCV, but I’m sure he regrets it.

Does he fit his District? No, No, and No. A moderate to a moderate conservative Republican would probably tough to take out in the District. Mark Kirk would probably be perfect in fact, if he wouldn’t be knocked out in the primary.

To give some examples of his extremism, he doesn’t believe in instant background checks on gun sales. He doesn’t seem to think that felons should be prohibited from owning firearms.

And in one of the oddest rulings, he supported drilling in Lake Michigan where much of the District gets its water. On Superfund, he has voted against the principle of polluter pays–while Superfund needs reform, that isn’t the kind of reform it needs.

Those are saleable issues in a moderately Republican District.

Making matters worse, Crane has been AWOL in the District. I pointed out some recent examples–especially LaHood’s comments. A key reason for incumbent strength is constituent service and Crane hasn’t done much of it. So bad, that a more moderate Republican challenger got 31% of the vote–most challenges to incumbents come from the extreme of a party, not from the center. Something about moderation being, well, moderate.

And the final weakness comes in a set of symbolic issues he has positioned himself on.

First, he gets most of his money from PACs. While PACs have been off the radar recently, they still are an effective target for a challenger.

Second, he has been there for years. Everyone hates the Congressman who has been there, but hasn’t made contact personally.

Third, Medicare rantings. Never make the old people who vote mad, even if you are one. Ask Rosty.

Fourth, 5 FEC disavowel notices. Five. Did I say five. With 18 terms don’t you think someone could get the paperwork right?

Fifth, he misrepresented several newspaper endorsements.

The amateur campaign guy in me already has the commercials running in my mind to run against the guy–and the direct mail…..oooooooohhhhh.

On the other side of the equation, Bean has several things going for her. A compelling story that fits her District–a successful professional woman with a family who is bright and has done something in the private sector in the last 30 years. She has name recognition from her first race. She is moderate being fiscally responsible and socially moderate–a good mix for the professional class moving into the district. And she has party support. Just today she was a featured race in the DTripC e-mail (okay, so they extensively quoted me and stroked my ego, but she was going to be featured anyway).

So yeah, this is a winnable District. The incumbent has an advantage, but they always do. Bean has already outraised what she spent last time–actually she did that by the primary. Crane is in fundraising trouble. As it is clear that he is on the downward end of his career and he will never be Ways and Means Chair–a slight that is telling of his low esteem amongst his colleagues, he isn’t getting as much from PACs and he has no small donor base. He doesn’t have the extensive nationwide mailing campaign set to go for him and an entire younger generation of wingnuts are the big names in mailing.

Bean is perfectly suited to challenge Phil Crane (R-Fossil). And she just might beat the guy with energy, moderation and ideas. So go help her out with either money or time (hint upper left).