January 2008

No Evidence of Racial Slippage

One thing that everyone is overlooking in the New Hampshire polls is that they were largely correct--No really:

Pollster.com is run by two academic pollsters with Charles Franklin creating estimates of the polling based on aggregating the different polls.

Obama estimate 36.7% from Pollster.com
Obama actual vote:  36%

Edwards estimate: 18.4%
Edwards actual vote:  17%

There are several reasons to think racial slippage didn't happen in New Hampshire. That the polls nailed the two other major candidates should tell us that what happened wasn't strange in terms of the polling, but what happened after the polling was complete.  We had a significant event after most of the polling was done with the Hillary moment that was covered on all the national media including the top three national newscasts on the networks.

There are rules of thumbs about how undecideds break and while those rules of thumbs were not accurate this time, there's a very good reason that may be the case--a flurry of coverage over Clinton that was unsympathetic, but at the same time created a sympathetic backlash.

On top of that, we are talking about a Northern State in a Democratic Primary where the effect is the least likely to be observed.   And it is far from a universal effect with the opposite generally being observed in Illinois even during general elections. Obama and Moseley Braun have done better in primaries than the final polls demonstrate and I believe Jesse White has as well, but I don’t have the numbers handy.

Then again, the national media is still howling about the polling being so off by talking about the gap between Clinton and Obama when the support for Obama was dead on.

Please Stop Whining About the Polls

They were fine, the assumptions people (including me) made about the undecideds were wrong.

Obama

Pollster Standard Estimate in NH  36.7%
Sensitive 39%
Last 5 38.4%

Edwards

SE:  18.4%
Sensitive:  18.6%
Last 5 18.2 %

Final Tally NH
Clinton 39%
Obama 36%
Edwards 17%The Republican numbers were very close to with McCain picking up 5 points.

It’s the undecideds, not something wrong with the polls.

Fine Moments in Votes of Confidence

From Roll Call

In 2004, while running to replace retiring Sen. Peter Fitzgerald (R-
Ill.), Oberweis aired a controversial television ad in which he flew a
helicopter above Soldier Field to show how many immigrants without the
right documentation enter the country through legal channels every
week -- roughly 65,000.

He now admits it probably wasn't the best idea.

"The commercial did not communicate our position well enough,"
Oberweis said. "The tone was harsh and the American public was not
ready for the message four years ago. "

But timing, again, appears to be in Oberweis' favor. With parochial
anger in the GOP base running red-hot, his identification with the
issue may tilt the race in his favor.
Let's remember that commercial here:
[kml_flashembed movie="http://youtube.com/v/Nst-aXvdrR4" width="425" height="350" wmode="transparent" /]
============================================
A Republican source close to Hastert said Oberweis was "ahead of his
time" on the immigration issue but failed to understand that few
voters cared in the immediate aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001,
terrorist attacks.

Oberweis' shortsightedness, the source suggested, has been a liability
for the sometimes undisciplined candidate.

"[Oberweis] has a tin ear and doesn't know how to use issues
appropriately," the source said.

The Hastert confidant also suggested that the former Speaker was less
than pleased with having to make a choice between either Oberweis or
Lauzen, a longtime political rival. But ultimately "Denny does care
about what happens after he's gone."

The source said the former Speaker picked the more even-handed
Oberweis, who "has better temperament, better judgment and a better
ability to work and get things done for the district."

"Unfortunately the field is one of these two idiots," the source said.
"If you just look at these two, Oberweis is the more practical choice
in that he certainly has a good chance in winning and he's someone
that'll try to work to get some things done and bring people together,
than be a lightning rod all the time."

What’s great about this is Oberweis has his moments of craziness too such as his description of pro-life advocates as the American Taliban. He then turned his entire Gubernatorial race over to Jack Roeser and the crack staff surrounding the Family Taxpayer Network including Matt Barber and Joe Weigand who has a claim to fame of dressing as a chicken to criticize former Gubernatorial candidate and genuinely decent person Jim Ryan.

On the other side we have the thin skinned wonder of Aurora in State Senator Chris Lauzen who most recently went off on the Tribune

State Sen. Chris Lauzen (R-Aurora), who is running for Congress, said he’d planned to go to the Rose Bowl with his wife and family, including one son who is a freshman at USC. But Lauzen said he would call this morning to cancel his order for six tickets.

“I should cancel it, and I’ll take that away from my family too,” Lauzen said.

Lauzen said he did not use a connection to get the tickets, but did call the university president’s office to ask how to go through the process.

“Sure, where else am I going to call?” Lauzen said.

But Lauzen called it “horrible” that “you would judge that there is anything inappropriate.”

“If you’re asking a question, it becomes a story,” Lauzen said.

Lauzen said he made a mistake running for office 16 years ago, saying politics is a “crappy business” that has cost his family millions of dollars.

“So I’ll, I don’t want any more trouble for me or my family,” Lauzen said. “This is really a horrible, horrible business. This is horrible.”

Lauzen also referred to his Republican opponent, Jim Oberweis of Sugar Grove, in the race to succeed former U.S. House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) in the 14th Congressional District.

“Just think what Oberweis will do with this,” Lauzen said.

Saying he was a “little bit sensitive,” Lauzen provided his home phone number to a reporter who asked how to reached him with any follow-up questions.

“Why don’t you call me at home and then maybe you can talk to one of my family members who won’t be going?” Lauzen said.

Lauzen is the genius who after fighting in a primary over his credentials with another candidate sued the man for defamation and attempted to change his name to Chris Lauzen CPA

His wife wrote a very odd letter on his behalf earlier this cycle

Lauzen, himself, wrote one of the most bizarre open letters to Hastert to encourage him to not endorse anyone in the 14th race.

You have demonstrated through your recent action of early resignation that you wish to set aside the public duty to which we elected you. At first, I was very concerned that your health was failing somehow, and I sympathized with you and your family. But, you have assured us repeatedly that there is no health problem and we are relieved on your behalf.

Many folks express their wonder to me about the apparent necessity to spend $1 Million of taxpayer funds that could better be spent on national security, healthcare, or education, on the March 8, 2008 Special Election. Now that you are stepping away from your official duties, I believe that citizens and voters would be distressed if you reassert yourself and use your considerable clout to influence the outcome of an impending primary.

So really whomever wins the Republican primary, the big winners are the bloggers who get to have fun with these freaks.

Freak Show Jones

Fun stuff over at Art Jones campaign website:

Do you want a Third World slum made out of the United States?
Do you want the American land built by the sweat and blood of our European ancestors desecrated?

For those wondering if he was a white supremacist, I think we have our answer.

Adding to that, one of his listed endorsements is the Veterans of Jewish Wars.  I’m not familiar with it, but I have a feeling it’s not good.  Jim Tobin of the National Taxpayers United Illinois group might want to revoke the groups endorsement given this guys views.  I’m no fan of NTUI, but they aren’t in the business of supporting people like Art Jones.

ABC NextGen

Lame Title, but nice project with a bunch of candidates for Congress, President, and Cook County States Attorney Submitting videos.

Mark Pera and Bennett both offered up videos for IL-3, but while those are good solid videos about their candidacies, there’s nothing like Art Jones who is, to say the least, off the rails crazy man! With Poetry!   Go check him out and check out the serious ones. Missing-Little Lip.
Let me explain to candidates that if you have a black background, don’t wear a black or dark blue suit–you look like a floating head.  Footlik, Scheurer, and Stein are especially noticeable in this regard.  Also, a guy who owns a lighting company should probably have a properly lit video Bill Foster.

Small thing for ABC–if you want to really make it a good resource, make it so people can put them on other sites like YouTube–I’d post almost all of them if they did so.