There is a Conspiracy
ArchPundit
To Keep Me Talking About Hurricanes.
Charles Kuffner is a daily read of mine and he’s blogging his preparations (probably to leave). One link is to the….Worst Case Scenario for Houston
September 2005
Because I can’t Help Myself
Kudos to Thad Allen for knocking some sense into Nagin to evacuate New Orleans for Rita.
If not good enough
Discuss if Rita makes a direct hit on Port Arthur and the relative impact on the environment there versus Katrina’s hit on New Orleans.
Yeah, Yeah, Yeah
Back a bit later today–lots of issues including a relatively big storm on Monday night have kept me from posting.
Check out the hurricane porn in the mean time or join Tucker and I discussing the TV themes that should have been offered up at the Emmy’s instead of the crap they pulled out.
Barack at Resources For The Future
He gave an address on securing energy resources at the RFF conference
Obama is also podcasting at his site–currently two Katrina related podcasts
Another area we could use some adult supervision
Environmental Policy
Jack Darin at the Illinois Sierra Club points us towards Al Gore’s speech concerning the environment in the wake of Katrina
There are scientific warnings now of another onrushing catastrophe. We were warned of an imminent attack by Al Qaeda; we didn’t respond. We were warned the levees would break in New Orleans; we didn’t respond. Now, the scientific community is warning us that the average hurricane will continue to get stronger because of global warming. A scientist at MIT has published a study well before this tragedy showing that since the 1970s, hurricanes in both the Atlantic and the Pacific have increased in duration, and in intensity, by about 50 %. The newscasters told us after Hurricane Katrina went over the southern tip of Florida that there was a particular danger for the Gulf Coast of the hurricanes becoming much stronger because it was passing over unusually warm waters in the gulf. The waters in the gulf have been unusually warm. The oceans generally have been getting warmer. And the pattern is exactly consistent with what scientists have predicted for twenty years. Two thousand scientists, in a hundred countries, engaged in the most elaborate, well organized scientific collaboration in the history of humankind, have produced long-since a consensus that we will face a string of terrible catastrophes unless we act to prepare ourselves and deal with the underlying causes of global warming. [applause] It is important to learn the lessons of what happens when scientific evidence and clear authoritative warnings are ignored in order to induce our leaders not to do it again and not to ignore the scientists again and not to leave us unprotected in the face of those threats that are facing us right now. [applause]
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The scientists are telling us that what the science tells them is that this – unless we act quickly and dramatically – that Tucson tied its all-time record for consecutive days above 100 degrees. this, in Churchill’s phrase, is only the first sip of a bitter cup which will be proffered to us year by year until there is a supreme recover of moral health. We have to rise with this occasion. We have to connect the dots. When the Superfund sites aren’t cleaned up, we get a toxic gumbo in a flood. When there is not adequate public transportation for the poor, it is difficult to evacuate a city. When there is no ability to give medical care to poor people, its difficult to get hospital to take refugees in the middle of a crisis. When the wetlands are turned over to the developers then the storm surges from the ocean threaten the coastal cities more. When there is no effort to restrain the global warming pollution gasses then global warming gets worse, with all of the consequences that the scientific community has warned us about.
Tie that in to this peach where the federal government appears ready to try and use evidence of particular levee opposition to environmentalists and you get some perfect examples of what is wrong with the Bush Administration. What is perhaps most ironic in this is that opposition to levees usually occurs because of a lack of wetlands–something that in the Gulf Coast region is especially problematic because barrier islands tend to slow hurricanes before they make landfall on the mainland.
Adult Supervision
A few of the significant others of my friends view me as adult supervision because I haven’t gotten so drunk since about college that I throw up. A few of my friends despite being in their mid-thirties haven’t quite got that balance down.
In a not dissimilar use of the phrase adult supervision, Barack suggests
Obama: This I think is where the problem comes in. You can’t fight a war in Iraq that’s costing upwards of 200 billion dollars and rebuild Katrina-rebuild N.O. and respond to the aftermath of Katrina-and try to deal with all the other domestic needs that we have, and- then cut taxes for the wealthiest 1% of Americana. I mean there was talk right-immediately after the hurricane that the republicans in the senate were still going to push forward with the repeal the estate tax which is mind boggling I think. We need some adult supervision of the budget process…
Posting at Daily Kos on Brown’s NYT Interview
Please go recommend it if you find it worthwhile
Short bit is that Brown contradicts several other sources on the ground at the time he is talking about.
Confusion on the Buses
Despite many news articles that demonstrate the use of RTA and school buses wasn’t practical or planned for the general population the meme continues.
The problem is that no one is looking at the actual language used in the New Orleans Comprehensive Hurricane Plan
The use of travel-trailers, campers, motorcycles, bicycles, etc., during the evacuation will be allowed so long as the situation permits it. Public information broadcasts will include any prohibitions on their use. Transportation will be provided to those persons requiring public transportation from the area. (See Special Needs Transportation, ESF-1). An orderly return to the evacuated areas will be provided after the Mayor determines the threat to be terminated. Transportation back to the evacuated area after threat termination will be provided as available.
ESF-1 is Emergency Support Function 1 which is nationally used to desginate the function of transportation in emergency planning. In this case it is referring to those who are physically limited.
Looking at the Special Needs Shelter
City of New Orleans Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan
I. PURPOSE
The shelter is intended for individuals who have no other resources and who need assistance that cannot be guaranteed in a regular shelter, i.e. medication that requires refrigeration, oxygen equipment, etc.The Special Needs Shelter (SNS) will only be activated by the Mayor of New Orleans or his designee.Entrance into the SNS does not relieve any individual of the responsibility for their own care.Admission into the Shelter is NOT TO BE INTERPRETED AS A GUARANTEE OF SAFETY, and the City of New Orleans is not assuring anyone protection from harm within the facilities that are being offered or opened for this purpose.
It is critical that everyone understands that this shelter will not be able to substitute for the comforts of the individuals’ homes, and that all equipment and special furniture, which are normally used, may not be able to accompany them.It is recommended that all persons with special medical needs and/or their responsible family members develop a viable plan for transportation out of the community to a community that will be able to give long term assistance.The potential exists that New Orleans could be without sufficient supplies to meet the needs of persons with special considerations, and there is significant risk being taken by those individuals who decide to remain in these refuges of last resort.The plan is intended to identify the mechanics of establishing a SNS and when it shall be activated.
And it’s fairly restrictive on who can go to them:
The population for the shelters established in the New Orleans area will be considered those individuals without the resources to evacuate.Persons who will be entering the SNS shall meet the following criteria:
1.Are able to provide their own basic care but have a chronic, debilitating medical condition requiring intermittent or occasional assistance.
2.Are dependent on intermittent electricity / generator power for necessary medical treatments or maintenance of medication, such as respiratory treatments, pump feedings etc.Note:This does not include continuous electrical needs such as ventilators.
3.Are not acutely ill.
4.Have been triaged by Shelter Staff to assure that the individual does meet the criteria and is a candidate for services which can be provided and assisted in this area, and sign a form acknowledging that there cannot be any guarantee of safety.
5.Are not in the third trimester of a high-risk pregnancy.
It is not appropriate to admit individuals to this shelter who require constant care or who require constant electricity to support machines necessary to maintain their life.Dialysis will not be available.Persons who are acutely ill will be evaluated and referred to local hospitals for definitive care.On a daily basis, every person with a chronic medical problem should have a viable plan that has been discussed with their primary physician so that when a disaster occurs, they will have an action plan established which can be put into effect.
To make this very clear the point is to provide transportation to those with mobility concerns. The State plan suggest using school and municipal buses as well, but from articles during planning that is clearly contingent upon finding drivers. Regardless, for years it’s been known that many people would never be able to get out because there isn’t the infrastructure nor the ability to pull people out of their homes early enough to pull that off. The entire line of attack on the local officials ignores the document itself as well as the actual reporting on the plan done in the past.
In fact, a 1994 Times-Picayune story said this:
Mr. Sheets cautions, “There’s no way you’re going to get the great majority of people out of New Orleans in the amount of warning time we will be providing.” He says it can take 72 hours to evacuate the metropolitan area, and forecasters cannot predict a hurricane’s landfall that far in advance. “There are 100,000 people in New Orleans who don’t even have vehicles,” he added, “so you’d have to provide the means to get them out as well.”
In this case, there was about 71 hours and the in the City itself, between 70 and 80% did get out.
It’s Like The Daily Show Saw it coming
March of the Penguins is being lauded by conservatives for promoting family values, unfortunately for them, the Daily Show already did an ‘expose’ on gay penguins. If you haven’t seen the Daily Show bit, watch it.