2004

But What’s the Point?

Rich Miller’s weekly column addresses Pat Quinn’s disappearance and points out the most egregious of sell outs by the Blagojevich administration–the delaying of regulatory review of coal powered sources. The sound from Quinn–silence. What good is it to be reelected if you are a political eunich.

But getting back to the Blagojevich administration’s decision, it could be worse, but it’s hard to say how. The reasoning is that because the feds are putting in new rules eventually, Illinois should wait. The argument goes that putting new regulations on Illinois would lead, under a deregulated energy market in Illinois, to power plants being built in other states leaving Illinois with fewer sources of power and less ability to regulate those who ship power to Illinois.

The irony of the above is that a deregulated industry is actually not causing fits of laughter as they try and encourage deregulation while saying it could lead to an inability to regulate power if we enforce current clean air laws. But why doesn’t that matter in Illinois? No ones paying attention.

Of course, what this misses is that power production is not highly relocatable. Certainly you can build some over the borders and you can transmit it, but economically it still doesn’t make sense to send it to far or the loss in the wires makes the costs too high. It’s a bogus threat to say you’ll relocate to other states at this point. The technology isn’t that good yet.

That said, the cost factor of only looking at what it costs Illinoisans in the short term avoids the point that eventually the EPA will have to address these problems. If Illinois is ahead of the curve, it can actually create an environment where utilities are geared up to deal with stricter standards and set it so the incentive system to get there is the least disruptive.

But The Blagorgeous won’t make that argument–instead he decided to look around and go, “Everyone else is doing it.”

The Polls

The two polls I took down were unclear on the timeline of when they occurred. I shouldn’t have put them up at all until I clarified the situation, but being in a hurry, I thought they’d be interesting. Given the issues I’m going to leave them down. The Coulson poll below is an early poll (I believe) which I should have picked up on by looking at it closer. The mistake was my own for not taking the time to get what I was putting up straight. Berkowitz has a bit on some of it.

2 Polls Taken Down

Some issues came up that I don’t trust the numbers I had posted. As of right now, it appears to be a communication error between who I received them from–for some background go to the newly redesigned Capitol Fax site. I’m trying to verify what the situation with the Coulson poll is. When I can address it, I will as I did with the Gephardt is the VP nominee screw up.

For some on the issue of blog reliability see Zorn. My answer to many critics is–well, yes, many blogs are simply partisan rants. Sometimes mine is, but I do try and take accuracy seriously and be fair (different than unbiased).

Suburban Polling

From the 17th House District–Northeastern Cook County. Coulson is the moderate to liberal Republican Incumbent. Capitol Fax reported she was running away from Keyes early on. It would appear to be working.

WHen you vote, will you be voting for
Dem 49%
GOP 25%
Split 14%

Bush
Favorable 36%
Unfavorable 57%

Kerry
Favorable 55%
Unfavorable 32%

Blagojevich
Favorable 57%
Unfavorable 23%

Coulson (R) Incumbent
Favorable 51%
Unfavorable 4%

Bromberg (D) Challenger
Favorable 7%
Unfavorable 4%

Obama
Favorable 73%
Unfavorable 14%

Keyes
Favorable 20%
Unfavorable 58%

What other challenger has ever had unfavorable ratings that bad?

Baar Topinka
Favorable 52%
Unfavorable 20%

Apparently a lack of ideological purity isn’t so bad in some areas.

Kirk (R-10)
Favorable 45%
Unfavorable 10%

Head to Head
Bush 33%
Kerry 58%

Coulson 44%
Bromberg 11%

Kirk 47%
Goodman 26%

Goodman’s a good guy, but off the radar. Kirk’s moderation is a huge benefit to him.

Keyes 16%
Obama 70%

Political Philosophy
Liberal 47%
Conser 36%
Moderate 15%

Coulson looks relatively safe, though with unclear turnout who knows given she is under 50. I like Coulson’s record in general so I have no problems in this race. Coulson is a moderate Republican who Russ Steward said is the only Republican who could hold the District. Stewart predicted a loss, which seems unlikely unless the Keyes disaster hits down ballot very hard.

The Worst Campaign Commercial of the Cycle

Is so far Nancy Farmer’s running for US Senate in Missouri.

She’s running against Kit Bond who is at least entertaining and brings in an incredible string of pork. At one point earlier in the year I could point to about 30 days worth straight of press releases from his office for projects grants he brought in being announced daily.

Nominate other bad ads you can find–not for content, but humorous quality.

Survey USA Obama Keyes

Given the last poll had Obama at 64 this is a slight increase in Obama’s lead though right at the MoE

10/7/2004
Obama (D) 68%
Keyes (R) 23%
Other/Undecided 10%
Data Collected 10/4/04 – 10/6/04
Geography State of Illinois
Sample Population 636 Likely Voters
Margin of Error 4.0%
Client WBBM-TV Chicago
KSDK-TV St. Louis

Unless undecideds break at better than 4-1, Obama looks to break 70. Keyes seems unlikely to break 30, I’d put him between 20-25 for the final–his likely explosions at the debates will create a new wave of bad press if his 2000 and 1996 Presidential runs are any indicator.