2004

The Stakeholder On Bean’s Victory

Melissa Bean’s victory is covered over at the DCCC’s Blog the Stakeholder

In fact, Bean is already a hardened campaigner, having won an impressive 43% against Crane in 2002 – with limited resources! Bean’s campaign is already thriving. She has raised over $150,000 – five times the amount she raised at this point last cycle.

Not only is she a great candidate in a very winnable race (CQ has moved it into the “competative” category), but she is getting a lot of love online.

Hence why I’ll be mentioning her a lot!

The Divorce

Like it or not, that file will be public before the first Tuesday in November. Controlling its release is far better than letting it hit on someone elses timing.

That’s the last I say about it until it hits. I figure Republicans don’t want my advice so I’m going to sit back and watch the show. Let’s maintain a low profile on the issue in comments please.

Other Races

The bad news is Cook County’s Tireless Public Guardian went down to defeat in his judicial race.

In the great news category, Bill Kunkle, the man who prosecuted the DuPage 7, has won with 52 percent of the vote against a candidate heavily supported by the man who can admit no mistakes and holder of the most bitter concession in 2002, Joe Birkett.

What Happened to the 19th?

Springfield Dem argued that Hynes organizational strength was vastly overrated last week.

He was right, he says this tonight:

Last week, you ran my post where I stated that people were vastly over-stating the Hynes organizational strength. Thanks.

Now we have proof — just look at the 19th Ward numbers — Tom Hynes’ ward — in the Senate race.

Dad’s home ward organization delivered the home ward for only a 2,000 vote plurality — Hynes barely broke 50% in his own “machine ward.

Madigan and Daley produced huge margins for Hynes.

Mark my words — this will be the inside talk of the entire Chicago Democrat community over the coming days. The 19th ward performance for Hynes is a political catastrophe for both father and son.

Obama took 41 % of the vote in the 19th compared to 51% for Hynes. Hynes only got a plurality in 5 of the 50 wards. Four of those with a majority.

Update: Springfield Dem did a bit more digging:

For what its worth — Obama took 29 of 66 precincts in the 19th Ward.

Vote Plurality by Ward for Hynes:

13 (Madigan) +5,269
11 (Daley) +4,581
23 (Lipinski) +3,457
19 (Hynes) +1,846

Hard to put a good spin on that.

Yeah. Now I don’t think this kills Hynes’ career, but it does mean he needs to loosen up and really try and connect with voters. He’s been a great comptroller and I expect great things in the future, but his campaign was uninspired. I know his brother was manager, and perhaps that is part of the problem. Family members tend not to be good at delivering things a candidate needs to hear.

Crane held under 70

While that is a pretty healthy victory, consider this is a primary for a long established Member of Congress—so well established that the last person to hold that seat was Don Rumsfeld.

I believe that is a sign of weakness, especially given Phelps ran to Crane’s left. There are some dissatisified Republicans for Melissa Bean to pick up!

Davis walked away with his race as did David Gill in the 15th.

Tari Renner is another good candidate in the 11th, but didn’t face a primary challenge

and neither did Tim Bagwell in the 19th.

Unfortunately, Costello walloped his competition.

Visit and help out the folks above. Bean is probably the one with the best shot, but all three face opponents with problems, especially Renner. Even if they don’t win, set the table so the next go around we can take another shot at Crane, Shimkus, Weller and Johnson.