Springfield Dem argued that Hynes organizational strength was vastly overrated last week.
He was right, he says this tonight:
Last week, you ran my post where I stated that people were vastly over-stating the Hynes organizational strength. Thanks.
Now we have proof — just look at the 19th Ward numbers — Tom Hynes’ ward — in the Senate race.
Dad’s home ward organization delivered the home ward for only a 2,000 vote plurality — Hynes barely broke 50% in his own “machine ward.
Madigan and Daley produced huge margins for Hynes.
Mark my words — this will be the inside talk of the entire Chicago Democrat community over the coming days. The 19th ward performance for Hynes is a political catastrophe for both father and son.
Obama took 41 % of the vote in the 19th compared to 51% for Hynes. Hynes only got a plurality in 5 of the 50 wards. Four of those with a majority.
Update: Springfield Dem did a bit more digging:
For what its worth — Obama took 29 of 66 precincts in the 19th Ward.
Vote Plurality by Ward for Hynes:
13 (Madigan) +5,269
11 (Daley) +4,581
23 (Lipinski) +3,457
19 (Hynes) +1,846Hard to put a good spin on that.
Yeah. Now I don’t think this kills Hynes’ career, but it does mean he needs to loosen up and really try and connect with voters. He’s been a great comptroller and I expect great things in the future, but his campaign was uninspired. I know his brother was manager, and perhaps that is part of the problem. Family members tend not to be good at delivering things a candidate needs to hear.
For what its worth — Obama took 29 of 66 precincts in the 19th Ward.
Vote Plurality by Ward for Hynes:
13 (Madigan) +5,269
11 (Daley) +4,581
23 (Lipinski) +3,457
19 (Hynes) +1,846
Hard to put a good spin on that.
“I should have known Hynes was weak when our Libertarian candidate got 144,000 votes against him.” – me
19th Ward Analysis:
“The Death of a Committeeman”
The 19th Ward has been slipping out of Tom Hynes’ control for a few years now. His aldermanic candidate, Ginger Rugai, got a big scare last year, he barely carried Lisa Madigan in the ’02 primary, and, of course, last night was an unmitigated disaster. Here’s why:
Age — Hynes’ core precinct captains are all near or at retirement age. They got involved in politics in the early and mid-’70s with Hynes. Several have taken the City’s early buy-out plan. Many of them have a short-timers’ mindset, i.e., “I’m gone in a few months anyway, why should I waste my Saturday knocking on doors.”
Changing demographics — The ward is more racially, economically and politically diverse than it was 20 years ago. There are about 4,000 black votes in the 19th. Obviously, they voted for Obama. But Barack got almost as many white votes in the ward, (probably close to 3,700.) Homes in the Bevery and Morgan Park neighborhoods routinely sell for a half-million dollars or more — they’re not being bought by Streets and San workers who owe their jobs to the 19th Ward organization. Hundreds of affluent, liberal-leaning lawyers, doctors and stock brokers have moved into the 19th. They voted against Rugai for alderman and for Obama yesterday.
Vallas — Tom Hynes stayed nuetral in the ’02 gubernatorial primary, refusing to endorse his 19th Ward neighbor Paul Vallas, who was extremely popular throughout the neighborhood, (Without Hynes’ support, Vallas still got 2,000 more votes in the ’02 primary than Danny got yesterday in the 19th.) Some 19th Warders blame Hynes for Vallas’ narrow defeat, arguing that if Hynes got behind Vallas early he could of raised a more money and softened Blagojevich’s labor support — the key to Blago’s victory. Always cautious, Hynes didn’t want to choose sides and make any enemies for Dan. In the end, he made some enemies in his own back yard by not supporting Vallas. A lot of Vallas die-hards got their revenge yesterday.
Dart — Hynes was always quick to put a brick on the career of former State Rep. Tom Dart, worrying that Dart would get in the way of Danny’s ascent. This stirred deep resentment among Dart and a loyal group of his followers. Dart ran Obama’s 19th Ward and suburban operations during his unsuccessful run against Bobby Rush for Congress in 2000 — Hynes backed Rush. Dart has not been active in ward politics since his statewide defeat for Treasurer in ’02, but his backers have long memories — they voted for Obama.
Tom Hynes had a great run. He quietly became one of the most powerful men in Illinois politics, cleaned up a traditionally corrupt Cook County office, (Assessor,) and built a great ward organization. Yesterday proved his time has come and gone.
“Cleaned up a traditionally corrupt office” by ensuring that that corruption no longer flowed directly to the various assistants in field positions, and instead flowed directly into campaign coffers.
I was in the county building the day that Burke no-show patronage scandal broke. A friend of mine held a summer position in Hynes office, and she dropped by and told me that there was no place to sit — all the no-show guys on the payroll in the Assessor’s office had come in that day because they were a little nervous, and there simply wasn’t room for everyone.
Great public servant?? Whatever.