WTF is with Ginsberg and Buchanan on MSNBC
ArchPundit
Simply being allowed to give lame talking points….
October 2004
2 Polls Taken Down
Some issues came up that I don’t trust the numbers I had posted. As of right now, it appears to be a communication error between who I received them from–for some background go to the newly redesigned Capitol Fax site. I’m trying to verify what the situation with the Coulson poll is. When I can address it, I will as I did with the Gephardt is the VP nominee screw up.
For some on the issue of blog reliability see Zorn. My answer to many critics is–well, yes, many blogs are simply partisan rants. Sometimes mine is, but I do try and take accuracy seriously and be fair (different than unbiased).
Warning Note on polls
Obviously, I wasn’t able to get all of the information regarding sample size and specific questions so use them with appropriate caution.
Suburban Polling
From the 17th House District–Northeastern Cook County. Coulson is the moderate to liberal Republican Incumbent. Capitol Fax reported she was running away from Keyes early on. It would appear to be working.
WHen you vote, will you be voting for
Dem 49%
GOP 25%
Split 14%
Bush
Favorable 36%
Unfavorable 57%
Kerry
Favorable 55%
Unfavorable 32%
Blagojevich
Favorable 57%
Unfavorable 23%
Coulson (R) Incumbent
Favorable 51%
Unfavorable 4%
Bromberg (D) Challenger
Favorable 7%
Unfavorable 4%
Obama
Favorable 73%
Unfavorable 14%
Keyes
Favorable 20%
Unfavorable 58%
What other challenger has ever had unfavorable ratings that bad?
Baar Topinka
Favorable 52%
Unfavorable 20%
Apparently a lack of ideological purity isn’t so bad in some areas.
Kirk (R-10)
Favorable 45%
Unfavorable 10%
Head to Head
Bush 33%
Kerry 58%
Coulson 44%
Bromberg 11%
Kirk 47%
Goodman 26%
Goodman’s a good guy, but off the radar. Kirk’s moderation is a huge benefit to him.
Keyes 16%
Obama 70%
Political Philosophy
Liberal 47%
Conser 36%
Moderate 15%
Coulson looks relatively safe, though with unclear turnout who knows given she is under 50. I like Coulson’s record in general so I have no problems in this race. Coulson is a moderate Republican who Russ Steward said is the only Republican who could hold the District. Stewart predicted a loss, which seems unlikely unless the Keyes disaster hits down ballot very hard.
The Worst Campaign Commercial of the Cycle
Is so far Nancy Farmer’s running for US Senate in Missouri.
She’s running against Kit Bond who is at least entertaining and brings in an incredible string of pork. At one point earlier in the year I could point to about 30 days worth straight of press releases from his office for projects grants he brought in being announced daily.
Nominate other bad ads you can find–not for content, but humorous quality.
Survey USA Obama Keyes
Given the last poll had Obama at 64 this is a slight increase in Obama’s lead though right at the MoE
10/7/2004
Obama (D) 68%
Keyes (R) 23%
Other/Undecided 10%
Data Collected 10/4/04 – 10/6/04
Geography State of Illinois
Sample Population 636 Likely Voters
Margin of Error 4.0%
Client WBBM-TV Chicago
KSDK-TV St. Louis
Unless undecideds break at better than 4-1, Obama looks to break 70. Keyes seems unlikely to break 30, I’d put him between 20-25 for the final–his likely explosions at the debates will create a new wave of bad press if his 2000 and 1996 Presidential runs are any indicator.
It’s Raining Polls….
Survey USA Illinois for Presidency
10/7/2004
Kerry (D) 55%
Bush (R) 39%
Other/Undecided 6%
Data Collected 10/4/04 – 10/6/04
Sample Population 644 Likely Voters
Margin of Error 4.0%
Client WBBM-TV Chicago
KSDK-TV St. Louis
I’ll assume this won’t make it’s way to the GOP website.
SurveyUSA uses computerized polling which most people are still skeptical of the reliability of the effects of such methodology on samples.
Rude, Rude, Rude
Advice to John Kerry from the Rude Pundit.
And when I say Rude, I mean Rude, so if you are at all able to be offended, he will offend you.
Lots of Datawork
Will have lots later and over the weekend.
Zeleny Rumor–not really a rumor at all
Given I’m in sort of Wonkette mode and St. Louis is a sleepy city, a big paper reporter sighting was supposed to play on Wonkette’s sighting bit around DC. So anyone expecting something juicy about Zeleny is way out of luck unless by juicy, him having drinks at the Cat’s Meow last night with a common friend and I is juicy.
Sorry for any misunderstandly, but Jeff took the joke as strange that anyone would care–which is part of the joke about Saint Louis. And of course, any conversations over beer are off the record.