I Haven’t Had the Time
ArchPundit
But there is a hot race to win th Majority Maker’s contest at the DCCC–the top 5 money gatherers get a free convention trip. In the top tier are several bloggers–one is Carl w/A K–go help out the DCCC and him if you can.
July 2004
Have Thoughts on the Key Note?
Go give them to Barack!
For Now, I’m on the Sideline, but
UPDATE: So my understanding is now that checking signatures is actually considered a legislative oversight function and not political work. While that might seem ludicrous, taking out the bit that this is Illinois, it does make some sense in the abstract. I’m still at a loss as to why anyone cares about Nader in Illinois.
BTW, the Continuing Efforts to Marginalize Oberweis
within the Republican Party are really a good sign that the Republican Party is seeking Latino votes and speaking to the importance of symbolism to racial minorities as well as substantive issues. Good job! A good article on HispanicBusiness.com.
Via Ralph.
Berkowitz Argues Jack! would be the Best Candidate
Like a good recruiter, he sets up a list of qualifications and sees who meets them.
He concludes Jack’s the guy. Now the statement that I think is simply not correct is that Jack was the best guy to win: “Nonetheless, most astute political analysts on the scene in Illinois would say Jack still had a shot to win and perhaps more importantly, Jack had a better chance than anyone else to win.”
I would argue most of the astute analysts thought there was little chance, but the best people to do it were Jim Edgar, Jim Thompson, maybe Judy though I disagree as would Jeff, and Steve Rauschenberger.
I think most people had already concluded Jack! was a disaster. Why?
Let’s start with the Kjellander deal. While everyone is claiming that Kjellander knee-capped the guy, I think Jack! was just the sort of empty suit Kjellander wants in the GOP. When asked by John Kass what all the candidates thought should be down about Kjellander, Jack was talking about the Treaty of Westphalia and didn’t know anything about the Bear Stearns deal. Steve Rauschenberger, who had the nomination for the taking from the party, said Kjellander needed to go and even challenged him for the spot of National Committeeman.
Second, let’s move to the press hated Jack! and his campaign guys. They were annoying, they attacked people on crap that was silly–Jack! couldn’t even explain his own talking points on the tax raising claims against Obama.
Third, Jack!’s staff turned a minor story about taping into a full blown national laughing stock.
Fourth, Jack! had no message. While people close to him rave about his bit on empowerment the reality is that if that was his message he couldn’t get it out.
Fifth, Jack! was down between 10 and 22 points in a Democratic leaning state with Barack tracking with John Kerry very closely.
Did Jack have a chance before lying to the press, the Party and the people? Sure, Obama could have turned out to be a space alien.
The Shorter Emerging Democratic Majority
Is in the Christian Science Monitor last week. Good bit on the demographic and party changes underway in Illinois.
UPDATE: Chillinois has a bit more critical view of some of the article–all of which is good.
Survey USA Poll from Last Week
763 Registered Illinois Voters with 3.6 % +/-
Obama-Ditka
Obama 51
Ditka 44
Other 4
Obama-Ryan
Obama 55
Ryan 37
Other 8
Obama-Oberweis
Obama 57
Oberweis 35
Other 8
Obama beats Oberweis and Ryan in every category except Republicans.
But most staggering are the Ryan numbers when it comes to likely voters. This was a poll of registered voters which this early in a cycle is probably a good idea. We simply don’t know who will turn out this far out. But when you look at the numbers for those with
High Interest in Politics
Obama 55
Ryan 38
Other/Undecided 7
Moderate Interest in Politics
Obama 63
Ryan 31
Other Undecided 6
Low Interest in Politics
Ryan 44
Obama 42
Other 14
As you go down interest level the difference in the likelihood of voting goes down too. And the last number is probably a name recognition measure than anything.
If Ryan gets back in this race he is in deep, deep trouble.
Charter Schools on 848
848 is just about to have a discussion of charter schools this morning. Tune in if interested.