July 2004

Illinois Republican Senate Nomination Cattle Call 7-8

1. Rauschenberger. Probably the only guy that doesn’t have anyone who hates him (despite concerns over the vetting process). Hastert is friendly, only Kjellander has a problem and Steve didn’t even try that hard to take him down. But with his demand to have a minimum amount of party money, the party may end up begging him to run instead of him asking to run. I believe at this point he is the only guy who can save the down ballot disaster completely.

2. Bob Schillerstrom. Smart, probably liked by Chamber types because of his switch on O’Hare and has decent name recognition as DuPage County Board Chair. Will be a decent draw in the burbs and will not be too much of a handicap in the downballot. Probably will demand some party money too. If he can get it, good platform to start the Governor’s race.

3. Tom McCracken. RTA Chair (Former or current–have to check) Fluent on transportation issues and widely known amongst insiders. Berkowitz says conservatives like him generally. Probably not stupid enough to run without party money either.

4. Uberveis. Guy only has a shot because he finished second in the primary and wants the suicide mission. President doesn’t like him and the Party understands how toxic he could be. Drug reimportation doesn’t help.

5. Jack Ryan. As I said, can it really get any weirder?

6. Jonathan Wright. Actually made a decent name for himself in the primary and might be willing to take on a suicide mission to raise name recognition and issues. A building for the future pick.

7. General Borling. Decent guy and certainly a heoric past. But that isn’t going to work with his former campaign manager being at the center of the Ryan scandal. Being pro-choice was knock one–this is knock two. Too bad in the sense that I think he’d have run a good campaign.

8. Dr. Andrea Grubb Barthwell. If nothing else, throw a hail mary. Still not sure how they are going to talk to her, but those things tend to work out.

9. Norm Hill. NORM!

10. Ditka. No seriously, why not at this point? Rauschenberger applied to be Bears Coach and Ditka to the Senate. How about it Jerry? A trade? (Credit to OneMan to reminding me of the Rauschenberger application to the Bears)

11. Duerson. Ah, hell, so he is a Democrat. And do we really need to guess who sent in his resume?

12. Lauzen. Don’t think he’ll do it, but imagine how stale my CPA jokes will be.

13. Jerry Krause. Jordan wil really donate to Obama then.

14. Jerry Reinsdorf. New meaning to stadium seating in the Senate gallery

15. Jordan. Just to keep Krause out, but Democrats buy shoes too.

16. Kathuria. Resume promises not to finish dead last again.

17. Peter Fitzgerald. Over Hastert’s dead body. Rumors of extra cholesterol being shipped to Hastert by some Party members

in a brief bit of hearsay, I hear the Committeefolks aren’t being lobbied hard, but the press is ever present. My guess is that this benefits Rauschenberger assuming he wants it since he has three natural votes already.

New Advertiser

The Wall Street Journal is a new advertiser offering up a cheap monthly rate for just political commentary. Not a bad deal, and I’m thinking about it—-even though I’m not a fan of the Journal’s opinion pages there is plenty of right wing material to have fun with 😉

Only Because It Couldn’t Get More Bizarre

Jack Ryan is acting an awful like a candidate.

Let’s run it down:
1) Sun-Times interview

I don’t feel I’m through with politics

2) 20/20

In a bizarre bit he said: . “I was told by almost everyone I spoke to this is a two-day story, this is not a crusher for a campaign,” he said. “The biggest reaction I got was, ‘Is that all there is?’ ”

Ummm…well, that was only your end of the files, not your ex-wife’s story in the files. Remember that little bit you left out with Governor Edgar?

3) The Family Statement

Ten-second sound bites and six-word headlines do not reflect the love and commitment Jack has shown to our family and especially his son. Jack’s commitment to being a great parent is beyond reproach. Anyone who casts doubts on his devotion to his son is simply out of touch.

The thing is, if this is true and he really thought the file should be sealed on legal grounds, why didn’t he:
a) appeal (politically disastrous)
b) not figure this out in March when the accusations were released by McCulloch and figure out that there was a file out there

But the interesting section is this:

Senator Fitzgerald demonstrated integrity and respect for Jack, our democracy and the political process during this difficult period. He and individuals like him represent what is good and hopeful in our democracy.

Almost like a clarion call to defy the press and the party leaders.

4) Good Morning America appearance

5) Scarborough Country were he insists the ruling was out of the ordinary and unprecedented–it wasn’t.

RYAN: Well, I think it?s worthwhile looking into someone if they?ve broken a serious promise to their spouse or to someone they owe a duty to. That I think is a character issue for running for the U.S. Senate or for the presidency but the things that they?re alleging about me don?t rise to that level. So, I think it?s fair to go to those issues if they are a serious break of a promise but otherwise no.

What about to a Party Leader or a former Governor or the public or the…..

6) Hannity radio and Hannity and the useful idiot tv

7) It’s all being breathlessly reported by the Illinois Leader which has a publisher who happens to still be on the Jack! payroll.

After all of this there is no doubt this guy is going to run for something, but is he crazy enough to continue this run? One has to wonder if he isn’t trying a Perot like draft movement.

IS HE FRIGGEN NUTS? If he really thinks he can run and even do well after the fiasco he has created he is crazy. He’ll have to stay out of sight of the media more than Peter did in 1998 and Barack is no Carol Moseley Braun. The media will be ruthless or, if he is lucky, simply ignore him. He’ll have to self-fund, freeing up Barack to raise more from individuals and if he goes high enough, receive party money–though he won’t really need it.

The press will be merciless and if he thinks it was bad before, wait until he had a full frontal assault from the GOP and I don’t just mean Kjellander and Topinka. I mean the Dillards, the Syversons, the Cross’, the Watson’s who are all in danger of losing Lege seats. It’ll be a Congressional disaster that probably brings down Crane and Weller and may even make others vulnerable with low turnout.

He won’t be running against Barack Obama, he’ll be running against the Illinois GOP, and they’ll win.

And to add in a bit of bizarreness, there is still, in all likelihood, an unredacted file out there with at least 6 paragraphs that will be nasty. No Democrat will ever touch it–it will be a murder suicide by the GOP.

The least he could do is bring back more to the district than a tan

Now, that is a good line. Catchy and it’ll stick when the guy says things like this:

Crane dismisses the criticism, saying he’s been back in the district 24 of the 26 weekends this year. “I don’t understand it. They’re not in my district. Our offices are available constantly.”

The passive voice in discussing constituent service is one of the true danger signs of an incumbent–actually, now that I think about it, that might be an interesting thing to test using some of the new content analysis software.

Skoien piled on:

“First of all, I think Phil will be fine,” said Skoien, who unsuccessfully challenged Crane in 1992 and 1994. “But having said that, he does need to spend a little more time in the district. He does need to get back with some voters. He’s been doing his job in Washington and he needs to pay a little attention.”

What job is that in Washington? Talking about the Old Goldwater days? Railing against whole language instruction making claims that are 30 years out of date? Or remembing Petey Fitzgerald when he was 8 and Crane was starting in Congress?

Bean has raised around $500,000. Crane has only $500,000 on hand–a small sum for an incumbent. It’s really bizarre to only have slightly more on hand….

So let’s thin the herd in this one and go donate at the upper left to Melissa Bean!

If Any of the Illinois Democrats can Explain Why We are challenging Nader on the Ballot

Feel free to let me know. This is just stupid. The guy isn’t going to take enough votes in Illinois–and even if he were, fight his ideas because frankly the only one he has going right now is that that he is being persecuted. Take that away and he is a whiny petulant child. Let him rant.

And for those that have time, feel free to help Jeff out on this one–he’s asking for help.