June 2004

Just Buy A Gun and Use It?

I’m going to prioritize the next few days in writing to responses to e-mails and the sort. Jeff Berkowitz responds to the my defense of 24/72 hour waiting periods by bringing up a woman who is being threatened under an order of protection:

Well, imagine it. Imagine a battered woman who called the police in Chicago to enforce a protective order and to protect herself form her battering husband, but police arrived a gunshot too late. So much for the efficacy of Protective Orders. A Women’s issue, perhaps?

Or perhaps a basic issue of gun safety. If someone is buying a firearm and planning on effectively using it in 72 hours they are setting themselves up for either hurting themselves or a bystander. While the common myth of how effective handguns are for personal safety suggest you point and shoot, it’s a bit more complicated than that. Add on top of that the great fear in such a situation and someone who is planning to use the firearm without practice or training is buying into a false sense of security. A false sense of security promoted by ‘gun rights’ advocates. Far more effective means of personal security are available for someone not trained to use a firearm in the short run.

Of course, if someone is first interested in buying a firearm, the waiting period in Illinois is much longer because Illinois prudently requires a Firearm Owner Identication Card that takes a couple weeks to receive.

Ultimately, the 2nd Amendment has never been ruled an individual right. One can argue with that all they want, but it doesn’t change it. That doesn’t address whether something is reasonable policy, but in this case, one has to ask why cooling down periods are a bad thing. If someone is a responsible owner, what is the rush to use the firearm in under 24 or 72 hours?

Beyond background checks there is a good reason for the waiting period and that is it reduces easy access to guns from people in excited states. No one legally entitled to own a gun is limited, but people who make decisions out of fear or anger are given a cooling off period. From personal experience, the scared woman on the other end of the line doesn’t know about FOID cards let alone how to clear a chamber.

Most importantly, the argument that quick access to firearms is a safety issue backfires on those trying to make it.

Go Read about Davis

Long Story short, my e-mail is funky, I didn’t get on the ball for guest posters and my internet connection is funky too. So ArchPundit will be slow for a couple more days–if I owe you an e-mail, it’ll have to wait until I get back.

But go check out the Capitol Fax–Rich Miller interviewed Danny Davis on his participation in Rev Moon declaring himself the Messiah.

Davis wouldn’t budge, comparing the elaborate ceremony to a “fraternity or sorority meeting,” or rituals performed by the local Elks lodge. “That’s kind of the way I regard these ceremonies.”

I seem to remember the rope and a brick, not declaring oneself the Messiah in my day.

New Senate Poll

Obama (D) 50%
Ryan (R) 39%
Other/Undecided 10%

Data Collected 6/7/04 – 6/9/04
Geography State of Illinois
Sample Population 736 Likely Voters
Margin of Error 3.7%
Client WBBM-TV Chicago
KSDK-TV St. Louis

The significant differences are on Jack’s numbers which are changing between polls. My guess on this is the method to determine likely voters or how hard they push people to make a choice is the key difference–IOW light leaners probably account for his better numbers. This early I tend to think such voters aren’t good to include, but it’s impossible to tell without further information. While Jack!’s e-mail is crowing about this, they are facing a non-incumbent at 50% or better. Behind the press releases that has to have them worried.

Survey USA are automated polls.

My Reaction To Reagan

First, RIP. I wish no one’s family to go through such a disease and certainly hope he was at peace as the disease progressed.

While I often describe myself as a fairly partisan Democrat who nonetheless argues for non-traditional solutions to problems (i.e. market incentives in environmental regulation and school choice with accountability in education) there is one area where I absolutely am at the left end of the U.S. political spectrum: Latin American policy. Having visited Nicaragua in 1991 and originally planning a career studying it, that then, probably inevitably, turned toward my long obsession with American politics, few places have the same draw on me.

My view on Latin America, and Central America in particular, is that we have never lived up to the Declaration of Independence there. We claimed to be supporting those who were freedom fighters, but were really thugs and rapists. In Nicaragua we met with Alfredo Cesar. He had originarlly been the spokesperson for the interim government after Somoza was thrown out and would become a leading opposition figure to the Sandanistas.

Cesar was interesting to me because he was highly critical of the Contras–far more than when he spoke to the American press. This comes up because a wonderful blog, Beautiful Horizons, that often concentrates on Latin America mentions Violetta Chamorro’s son who says this:

In Nicaragua, Reagan’s financial and military support for anti-government rebels “caused a lot of damage in our country, a lot of suffering, a lot of death and destruction,” said Carlos Chamorro, a journalist and political analyst, whose mother, Violeta Chamorro, became president in elections in 1990 that ended the rule of the Marxist-led Sandinistas.

“There might be a group that was supported by Reagan that may have a different memory of him. But I have the impression that a majority of the people will associate him with the war and with the destruction,” Chamorro said. The U.S.-backed war killed at least 20,000 people.

The Washington Post and Beautiful Horizons miss an important part of the story. Chamorro’s father, Violetta’s husband, was murdered, most likely by Somoza’s son–a kid who can be fairly compared to Saddam’s offspring. And he and his father were tools of the U.S. Government.

The Sandinistas were problematic. They were authoritarian and they did not accept free speech as they should. But the effort to destroy them that resulted in the raping of literacy workers and other wide ranging human rights abuses were not worth the effort. It was wrong.

Randy quotes Oscar Arias who is far more eloquent than I ever could be on the issue:

I know well you share what we say to all members of the international community, and particularly to those in the East and the West, with far greater power and resources than my small nation could never hope to possess, I say to them, with the utmost urgency: let Central Americans decide the future of Central America. Leave the interpretation and implementation of our peace plan to us. Support the efforts for peace instead of the forces of war in our region. Send our people ploughshares instead of swords, pruning hooks instead of spears. If they, for their own purposes, cannot refrain from amassing the weapons of war, then, in the name of God, at least they should leave us in peace.

Crane’s In the Leader

How do all the conservative Christians at the Leader feel about his ties to a cult leader who declared himself the Messiah? I know I’d be voting for whatever gadfly is running against Danny Davis if I was in his District.

Quote of the article

Oh, yes. . . I have always viewed Democrats as potentially salvageable

No comment.

Phil does take a stab at whole language instruction, but unfortunately for him, his ideas are about 40 years out of date–most research today suggests whole language and phonics are both successful depending on the student. (education policy snark).

Maybe tomorrow’s edition will tell us of something he’s actually done!

Can Dems Take A House Seat in Illinois?

I’m guessing there is a good shot at two with a third running as an outside shot. The first of four posts takes a look at two seats I think are hot for takeover, one that is coming up, and the others seats with challengers. The series is motivated by Dan Johnson-Weinbergers challenge that none of these seats are winnable and so we should redistrict mid-decade–an idea I hate, but that is for another day.

First, is Melissa Bean, the hottest race in Illinois.

Bean took on Crane in what seemed like a hopeless race two years ago with a limited budget and a lot of hard work. She came in at 43% to his 57% while spending $500,000 less on the campaign. That was his lowest percentage since 1992.

The District leans Republican with Bush getting 56% of the vote in 2000–that is in the new District’s boundaries for 2002–National Journal reports all districts as such. Gore/Other got 44%.

Off-hand this doesn’t seem to be the easiest target, but for several reasons the District is considered a high profile race by pundits and the party. As mentioned below, Hastert has called on other Republicans to help Crane.

An important thing to understand about the power of incumbency is the impact of name recognition and years of getting that name out there as well as opportunities through constituent service to make contact.

The problem is that in a District that straddles Lake and McHenry and is experiencing rapid population growth and many of those people don’t know Crane. In addition, he gets a part of Northwestern Cook he didn’t have before including Hoffman Estates, Schaumburg and the Cook portion of Elgin. That area is part of Steve Rauschenbergers State Senate District with that specific area being the area he had the toughest job with in 2002. He did well in the Kane are of Elgin, but the Hoffman Estates area was more Democratic. Crane only got the more Democratic area.

On a personal note, my sister, the conservative Republican Willow-Creek going, small business owner was impressed with Melissa Bean when they met. Of course, she doesn’t often vote.

So while the District is Republican, it is relatively new to Crane and the many residents are new to the area period in the Lake and McHenry areas.

But to make it more attractive, Lake County is one of the Counties highlighted in The Emerging Democratic Majority by John Judis and Ruy Teixiera. Lake in 1988: Bush 64 Dukakis 36
Lake in 2000: Bush 50 Gore 48

To now, we know that Bean ran a credible challenge 2 years ago with far less money, the traditional name recognition advantage is largely neutralized in a new district that is rapidly growing, and the overall composition is becoming close to a toss up.

Demographically, the District is not a slam dunk. Certainly, a liberal Democrat isn’t going to take that District. One thing to note is that the District is nearly as safe as they could make it, but it still isn’t that safe.

But a moderate Democrat against a wingnut fossil is a different story. Crane isn’t just your run of the mill Republican, he is first generation wingnut who cut his teeth on the Goldwater campaign and never looked back.

Rankings 2002
American Conservative Union 100
National Tax Limitation Committee 100
Christian Coalition 100
Chamber of Commerce 94

And you can look down a few posts for the high esteem he is held by the Gun Owners of America which is to the right of the NRA.

He did pull of 13 % rating from the LCV, but I’m sure he regrets it.

Does he fit his District? No, No, and No. A moderate to a moderate conservative Republican would probably tough to take out in the District. Mark Kirk would probably be perfect in fact, if he wouldn’t be knocked out in the primary.

To give some examples of his extremism, he doesn’t believe in instant background checks on gun sales. He doesn’t seem to think that felons should be prohibited from owning firearms.

And in one of the oddest rulings, he supported drilling in Lake Michigan where much of the District gets its water. On Superfund, he has voted against the principle of polluter pays–while Superfund needs reform, that isn’t the kind of reform it needs.

Those are saleable issues in a moderately Republican District.

Making matters worse, Crane has been AWOL in the District. I pointed out some recent examples–especially LaHood’s comments. A key reason for incumbent strength is constituent service and Crane hasn’t done much of it. So bad, that a more moderate Republican challenger got 31% of the vote–most challenges to incumbents come from the extreme of a party, not from the center. Something about moderation being, well, moderate.

And the final weakness comes in a set of symbolic issues he has positioned himself on.

First, he gets most of his money from PACs. While PACs have been off the radar recently, they still are an effective target for a challenger.

Second, he has been there for years. Everyone hates the Congressman who has been there, but hasn’t made contact personally.

Third, Medicare rantings. Never make the old people who vote mad, even if you are one. Ask Rosty.

Fourth, 5 FEC disavowel notices. Five. Did I say five. With 18 terms don’t you think someone could get the paperwork right?

Fifth, he misrepresented several newspaper endorsements.

The amateur campaign guy in me already has the commercials running in my mind to run against the guy–and the direct mail…..oooooooohhhhh.

On the other side of the equation, Bean has several things going for her. A compelling story that fits her District–a successful professional woman with a family who is bright and has done something in the private sector in the last 30 years. She has name recognition from her first race. She is moderate being fiscally responsible and socially moderate–a good mix for the professional class moving into the district. And she has party support. Just today she was a featured race in the DTripC e-mail (okay, so they extensively quoted me and stroked my ego, but she was going to be featured anyway).

So yeah, this is a winnable District. The incumbent has an advantage, but they always do. Bean has already outraised what she spent last time–actually she did that by the primary. Crane is in fundraising trouble. As it is clear that he is on the downward end of his career and he will never be Ways and Means Chair–a slight that is telling of his low esteem amongst his colleagues, he isn’t getting as much from PACs and he has no small donor base. He doesn’t have the extensive nationwide mailing campaign set to go for him and an entire younger generation of wingnuts are the big names in mailing.

Bean is perfectly suited to challenge Phil Crane (R-Fossil). And she just might beat the guy with energy, moderation and ideas. So go help her out with either money or time (hint upper left).

The Good Mr. Durbin

Just to make Greg have a coniption 😉

The Good Mr. Durbin yesterday made the AG very uncomfortable.

Reward Good Behavior

Durbin: And here’s the problem we have. You have said that you’re not claiming executive privilege; that’s for the president to claim. But the law’s very clear: you have two options when you say no to this committee: Either the executive claims privilege and refuses to disclose, or you cite a statutory provision whereby Congress has limited its constitutional right to information.

So which is it, Mr. Attorney General? Is it executive privilege, or which statue are you claiming is going to shield you from making this disclosure of these memos at this point?

ASHCROFT: Thank you for your remarks.

First of all, let me agree with you as it relates to the value of the Constitution both at war and at peace. I couldn’t agree more heartedly with you that the Constitution is controlling. And I would never suggest that we absent ourselves from a consideration of and adherence to and complete compliance to the Constitution of the United States.

ASHCROFT: And if there is any way in which I have suggested in my remarks today that we wouldn’t do that, I want to take this opportunity to make it very clear that the Constitution of the United States is controlling in every circumstance and is never to be disregarded.

(CROSSTALK)

DURBIN: I respect that.

But under which standard are you denying this committee the memos, either executive privilege or a specific statutory authority created by Congress exempting your constitutional responsibility to disclose? Under which are you refusing to disclose these memos?

ASHCROFT: I am refusing to disclose these memos because I believe it is essential to the operation of the executive branch that the president have the opportunity to get information from his attorney general that is confidential and that the responsibility to do that is a function of the executive branch and a necessity that is protected by the doctrine of the separation of powers in the Constitution.

And for that reason — and that is the reason for which I have not delivered to the Congress or the members of the Senate these memos, any memos.

DURBIN: Sir, Attorney General, with all due respect, your personal belief is not a law, and you are not citing a law and you are not claiming executive privilege. And, frankly, that is what contempt of Congress is all about.

You have to give us a specific legal authority which gives you the right to say no or the president has to claim privilege. And you’ve done neither.

I think this committee has a responsibility to move forward on this.

New Verb: LaHoodwinking

Ryan Suffers another Lahoodwinking as Ray wasn’t satisfied enough with his blast at Ryan so he added to it. Reported in Copley sources, but I can’t find the damn on-line versions (Curses you Copley–but kudos to the tip)

LaHood blasts Ryan’s Senate campaign

Dori Meiner – Copley News Service

Springfield State Journal-Register

Wednesday, June 9, 2004

WASHINGTON – Rep. Ray LaHood, R-Peoria, on Tuesday blasted GOP Senate candidate Jack Ryan’s campaign strategy, saying “he’s got to get his act together” and urging the first-time candidate to consult with more experienced politicians.

LaHood said he advised Ryan in a telephone conversation on Tuesday to “get control of the campaign.”

The phone conversation came after LaHood’s harsh assessment of Ryan’s campaign against Democratic state Sen. Barack Obama appeared in an article in the Capitol Hill newspaper The Hill.

“He’s running a kind of bonehead campaign right now,” the publication quoted LaHood as saying of Ryan. “This idea of having one of his staffers trail around Obama and take video pictures of him at all of his events is about the stupidest thing I’ve ever seen in a high-profile campaign, and it’s been publicized all over Illinois and when people in our party ask what’s going on I tell them it’s ridiculous.”

Elaborating in an interview with Copley News Service on Tuesday, LaHood

said: “Whoever came up with the idea of trailing his political opponent with a video camera ought to be fired. It’s ridiculous. That’s not a way to run a campaign.”

LaHood chalked up Ryan’s recent gaffes to his political inexperience.

“Part of the problem is he’s never been involved in politics and, you know, you can’t let your staff dictate what you do,” LaHood said.

“The incident of trailing your opponent with a video camera is idiotic. All he has to do is pick up a newspaper and find out how Obama feels about the issues. Or listen to a radio interview,” LaHood said. “I think part of it is political naivete, never being involved. But, my gosh, he won a primary.”

LaHood supported Andrew McKenna in the Republican primary, but now said he supports Ryan.

LaHood said there’s still time for Ryan to turn things around before the November election.

“I think we have an understanding,” LaHood said. “He knows that I’m committed to helping him win, and I’m committed to helping him raise money.

But he’s got to get his act together.”

LaHood said he met Saturday with a group of “die-hard Republicans” in Peoria and that he was bombarded with complaints about Ryan’s campaign.

“There’s a lot of people who want Jack Ryan to win, but he’s got to run a good campaign. It’s got to be on the issues,” LaHood said.

Ryan spokeswoman Kelli Phiel had little to say about LaHood’s criticisms other than to defend the practice of following opponents as common.

“We did see it as a common practice that has been used on national campaigns before,” Phiel said. “We were doing it specifically to track Mr. Obama’s public comments in public places and to ensure he had a consistent message.

That was our only intention, our only motivation.”

The incident gained widespread media attention after Obama described the Ryan cameraman as a “stalker.”

The irony is that LaHood was a staffer for years under Michels, but generally a good critique of a bad campaign so far. Then again, Dan Proft’s idea to attack Watson and Topinka might be bearing some bitter fruit.