Rich on the black vote and Obama
Next, you “experts” assume that just because viable, credible black candidates end up winning overwhelming majorities of black votes that polls currently showing Hillary Clinton leading Obama among African Americans are somehow important.
Wrong again.
In Illinois, at least, large numbers of black voters tend to take their time making up their minds. In political parlance, they ”break late.”
Ten months before the March 2004 U.S. Senate primary (about where we are now before the Iowa caucuses), Obama’s own polls showed him winning just 34 percent of the black vote. About a month before the primary, African-American voters began ”breaking” in large numbers to his candidacy. As they began focusing on the campaign, black voters saw he was viable, liked his message and a significant percentage finally realized he was African American. He ended up winning just about all their votes.
This same pattern has been repeated time and time again during the past 25 years here. Harold Washington didn’t start off his campaign with the majority of black support against a white female with a huge war chest and the powers of patronage and incumbency, but he certainly ended that way.
Like Byrne, Hillary Clinton is almost universally known and has a strong record of backing issues important to many Democratic African-American voters. Obama is far less known. It’s perfectly natural that, right now, many black voters are siding with Clinton. But, if Obama’s candidacy remains viable through early next year, I’d bet that the vast majority of African-American voters will end up with him.
To recap, because I know you’re all very busy: Black leadership endorsements of white candidates over black opponents are not necessarily important because they don’t automatically translate into black votes; and black voters take their time deciding whether to vote for a fellow African American, but if that candidate looks like a potential winner, they usually end up voting for him or her.
I hope this helps.
Iowa and New Hampshire have no significant black population (outside of Waterloo). South Carolina is the first state with significant black population that holds a primary and it isn’t until January 26th meaning it’ll be towards the end of December that you start to get a sense of what the black population will be doing–and that might carry over until the first week of January given the holidays.
Rich Miller at one time was with Barack.
I had a sense he was a empty suit.
Shalom,
— Prof. Leland Milton Goldblatt, Ph.D. ®
http://drgoldblatt.blogspot.com
Prof. Leland Milton Goldblatt supports universal health care and opposes free trade, which he argues deprives American workers of their jobs while exploiting foreign workers in sweat-shop factories.
Dear Goof Offs, Idiots and Psychopaths of the Right Wing, and also Ombudsman of the Washington Post,
Today’s Chicago Sun-Times has a column by Lynn Sweet outlining Obama’s breakfast with Mike Bloomberg.
Obama ate eggs and bacon.
Yes, BACON.
Please make a note of it.
Maybe they’re like the Illinois white voters and waiting for him to actually represent us instead of spending all his time campaigning in other states as part of this Oprah lovefest.
Where has Larry gone?
Like the “Illinois white voters?”
Yeesh.
Suppose you were ValleyGal. And suppose you were an idiot. But I repeat myself.
With regard to response number two; it is amazing to me how often a liberal will insult a conservative rather than engage in civil discourse. Your words only prove your inability to present a credible argument or position. Or, your just mad that Obama isn’t really qualified for the job and don’t have any real support to offer him other than slamming other people.
Good luck in the election!
Right—right wing smears Obama with madrassa and Muslim rumors and pointing out how dumb those people who lie about such things is an attack.
Get a fucking clue.