Sometime, probably in the next 48 hours though I’m bettting sooner than later, an Illinois Congressional race is going topsy turvy. It’s another pick-up for Dems. If you are observant around the net you’ll find the information. Mobilization is already occurring around the state to get ground troops.
Thanks Republicans.
Update: I closed comments to keep this from getting out of control.
If, just talking hypothetically here, a particular Republican congressman decided in the next day or two to resign and drop off the ballot, could his party replace him under Illinois law?
Nope, early voting has begun. At least I think I’m right–I’ll confirm.
And thank you–let’s keep this theoretical until it breaks.
Hey bud,
Your “click here to advertise” link is no longer working.
I think you mean the 11th, JackD.
ASX–that’s an old ad link because Bean’s campaign bought it before the switchover. The top right strip with advertise here should be working (it is for me).
And yeah–Rich Miller at Capitol Fax has the most recent up for IL – 10–not sure of the reliability.
C’mon man, delayed gratification is very difficult for me. Can you give a bigger hint what wingnut is toast and why? Is it salacious (I hope)?
Let’s not go there quite yet….
Ba’al,
The truth is out there.
Seriously, just hunt around kos you might find what you’re looking for.
An RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics Poll 10/18 in Illinois 10: Kirk 46, Seals 44!
Other polls have Kirk with a good lead.
KOS has a poll from Majority Watch for the 10th showing Kirk with 46% and Seals at 44%. KOS characterizes the numbers for this poll (and 5 others) as overly optimistic, but great news for Seals. I had the feeling Kirk was in trouble when he started running negative TV ads mentioning Seals, and mailing out ads touting Kirk’s purported “moderate” views. (Kirk is such a moderate that he supported the new law legalizing torture and eliminating habeas corpus rights)
I dunno–all I’ve found so far seems like hearsay (if not totally invented). I’d love to see old-so-and-so out of a job, but it didn’t reek of credibility. Yet. Keeping my eyes peeled, though.
Buck Turgidson:
I just went on KOS and could nothing even obliquely hinting at the purported news on another Republican resignation (although if I were a betting man I’d say it is Shimkus, for other reasons).
the diary that you are looking for is now in the recent list by madeph. he names the guy and also said that he thought that 24 to 48 hours would be the time. many criticized him for no links but the last time he posted he had the sandra o’coonnor resignation story early and correct. he says that this is another good source but unable to name the source. despite the critics i’m betting on the madeph.
I note for the record that a 2% lead is well within most MoEs, and would hardly count as a pickup to the extent that this is being described.
I also note that ArchPundit did not address the 11th (Weller), who has a two-month-old and could, therefore, legitimately withdraw for family reasons.
Hasert (14) is too much to hope. Shimkus (19) is probably the best bet–but it will all be moot soon anyway.
Maybe they could run Alan Keyes for the vacancy as a write-in?
We have two hot districts here in Illinois,
Destrict 10, Haster vs Laesh
District 6, Rskam vs Duckworth
My bet is Hastert!
Really, let’s not discuss the specific individual until it breaks. I understand the impulse, but for now…
ArchPundit, did you get this rumor from the DailyKos diary or do you have a seperate source?
Separate and from three different sources (today)—I didn’t know about the Kos bit until I sat down to post it.
And sorry for the deletions, but I think Carl’s solution satisfies me and everyone wanting to know more.
Legal tip for bloggers.
I got sued for defamation once and I learned a useful piece of info from an attorney.
A blogger can’t get sued for something someone else writes in the comments. The big companies got legislation passed that protects them.
For example, when I was sued for defamation Blogger (Google) wasn’t named as a co-defendent. I was responsible for what I wrote on their server.
The same law protects bloggers from being sued for comments posted on a blog.
This is one of the reasons I don’t like moderated comments. If I read a post and OK it for the comments I’m concerned I’ve become a party to the comment that may be defamatory.
I don’t screen the comments until afterwards–and it’s more of an ethical thing with me. I can’t personally confirm the information, though I have very good sources. So I’m willing to do the tease, but not willing to put the name out there.
If nothing else, if I’m wrong, it would be unfair.
Arch, I hope I didn’t give the impression I was second guessing your decision. Proviso Township has been at the forefront of using blogs to skirt libel law. I was sharing info that others may find useful.
Oh no, you are perfectly fine and a good tip–my point was to further clarify how I was handling it.
Rather than concentrate on individuals, I think it’s important to get out there and canvass this weekend. It’s only by reaching out to people and getting out the word, that we’re ever going to get our Candidates elected.