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Is probably doing a show tonight at 9 PM on the Illinois Senate Race.
Visit his site Collective Interest as well.
Illinois Senate
“The Death of a Committeeman”
By Joe Bailey in comments:
The 19th Ward has been slipping out of Tom Hynes’ control for a few years now. His aldermanic candidate, Ginger Rugai, got a big scare last year, he barely carried Lisa Madigan in the ’02 primary, and, of course, last night was an unmitigated disaster. Here’s why:
Age — Hynes’ core precinct captains are all near or at retirement age. They got involved in politics in the early and mid-’70s with Hynes. Several have taken the City’s early buy-out plan. Many of them have a short-timers’ mindset, i.e., “I’m gone in a few months anyway, why should I waste my Saturday knocking on doors.”
Changing demographics — The ward is more racially, economically and politically diverse than it was 20 years ago. There are about 4,000 black votes in the 19th. Obviously, they voted for Obama. But Barack got almost as many white votes in the ward, (probably close to 3,700.) Homes in the Bevery and Morgan Park neighborhoods routinely sell for a half-million dollars or more — they’re not being bought by Streets and San workers who owe their jobs to the 19th Ward organization. Hundreds of affluent, liberal-leaning lawyers, doctors and stock brokers have moved into the 19th. They voted against Rugai for alderman and for Obama yesterday.
Vallas — Tom Hynes stayed nuetral in the ’02 gubernatorial primary, refusing to endorse his 19th Ward neighbor Paul Vallas, who was extremely popular throughout the neighborhood, (Without Hynes’ support, Vallas still got 2,000 more votes in the ’02 primary than Danny got yesterday in the 19th.) Some 19th Warders blame Hynes for Vallas’ narrow defeat, arguing that if Hynes got behind Vallas early he could of raised a more money and softened Blagojevich’s labor support — the key to Blago’s victory. Always cautious, Hynes didn’t want to choose sides and make any enemies for Dan. In the end, he made some enemies in his own back yard by not supporting Vallas. A lot of Vallas die-hards got their revenge yesterday.
Dart — Hynes was always quick to put a brick on the career of former State Rep. Tom Dart, worrying that Dart would get in the way of Danny’s ascent. This stirred deep resentment among Dart and a loyal group of his followers. Dart ran Obama’s 19th Ward and suburban operations during his unsuccessful run against Bobby Rush for Congress in 2000 — Hynes backed Rush. Dart has not been active in ward politics since his statewide defeat for Treasurer in ’02, but his backers have long memories — they voted for Obama.
Tom Hynes had a great run. He quietly became one of the most powerful men in Illinois politics, cleaned up a traditionally corrupt Cook County office, (Assessor,) and built a great ward organization. Yesterday proved his time has come and gone.
Obama Vs. The Republican Field
It doesn’t look like O’Bama will be getting more votes than all of the Republicans together. With 11,713 precincts out of 11,745 precincts reporting Obama is down by about 10,000 votes. Still a stunning result and more importantly it seems to indicate some real problems for Republicans statewide.
I have some thoughts, but what else does everyone out there think could have caused this low turnout for Republicans?
Results for Commenter Contest….
Will have to wait until tonight. Exceeding my bandwidth sort of slowed me down last night so I’ll get it up at some point tonight.
Congrats to That Collored Fella for winning the blogger contest set up by Eric Zorn.
Hull killed me. That said, given I’d have to distribute his points elsewhere, I wouldn’t have given them all to Barack. And even if I did, Bert still would have killed me.
Question of the Night
Why was Richard Daley defending Ryan’s privacy so strongly? I can think of a dozen ways to just avoid the question. Perhaps he isn’t wanting to send him away to keep him from running in the city? Something to think about.
Stunning, Stunning, Stunning
As of right now, Barack Obama in a seven way race has accumulated about 4,000 more votes than all of the Republicans combined. There are about 200 precincts left to count.
Major Tip of the Hat to Jeff Trigg at Random Acts of Kindness for figuring this out.
He also points out that Hynes will pick up about 80 counties. County chairmen are good things to collect in a campaign, but votes are better.
The Divorce
Like it or not, that file will be public before the first Tuesday in November. Controlling its release is far better than letting it hit on someone elses timing.
That’s the last I say about it until it hits. I figure Republicans don’t want my advice so I’m going to sit back and watch the show. Let’s maintain a low profile on the issue in comments please.
What Happened to the 19th?
Springfield Dem argued that Hynes organizational strength was vastly overrated last week.
He was right, he says this tonight:
Last week, you ran my post where I stated that people were vastly over-stating the Hynes organizational strength. Thanks.
Now we have proof — just look at the 19th Ward numbers — Tom Hynes’ ward — in the Senate race.
Dad’s home ward organization delivered the home ward for only a 2,000 vote plurality — Hynes barely broke 50% in his own “machine ward.
Madigan and Daley produced huge margins for Hynes.
Mark my words — this will be the inside talk of the entire Chicago Democrat community over the coming days. The 19th ward performance for Hynes is a political catastrophe for both father and son.
Obama took 41 % of the vote in the 19th compared to 51% for Hynes. Hynes only got a plurality in 5 of the 50 wards. Four of those with a majority.
Update: Springfield Dem did a bit more digging:
For what its worth — Obama took 29 of 66 precincts in the 19th Ward.
Vote Plurality by Ward for Hynes:
13 (Madigan) +5,269
11 (Daley) +4,581
23 (Lipinski) +3,457
19 (Hynes) +1,846Hard to put a good spin on that.
Yeah. Now I don’t think this kills Hynes’ career, but it does mean he needs to loosen up and really try and connect with voters. He’s been a great comptroller and I expect great things in the future, but his campaign was uninspired. I know his brother was manager, and perhaps that is part of the problem. Family members tend not to be good at delivering things a candidate needs to hear.
Stunning Results
Hull obviously collapsed, but given his campaign was built upon name recognition to be followed up with issues, once he was taken off message the result shouldn’t be that surprising. He spent the last three weeks talking about personal issues.
Hynes is coming in at the bare base of what might be expected for him. While it removes any sense that he is invincible, I wouldn’t bet against him in the 2010 Governor’s race.
Pappas just ran into a buzzsaw. One thing that became clear over the last few days is that Obama’s campaign had taken on a life of its own. Not as much of a life as it took on, but a life of its own. Pappas just fell into the background.
On the Republican side, Jack! kept his share of the vote, but certainly wasn’ t overwhelming. Rauschenberger did have a large surge, but just a little too late. Expect him in the next Governor’s race. The wildcard is whether he’ll run against O’Malley who has been running since Jim Ryan beat him last time. By the time the general election is over, I have a feeling the Republicans will be wishing they had voted for the less exciting Rauschenberger.
In a Democratic leaning state any Republican faces an uphill battle. That said, I think a variety of issues will keep Ryan from getting traction. Frankly, I think he is just too conservative for Illinois. Charisma helps, but his speaking skills aren’t as good as advertised. But I’ve been wrong before.
Rich Miller pointed out that Daley has every reason to work hard for Obama, or he might just run for something more locally and with the numbers tonight, he win in just about anything except maybe a showdown with the Mayor himself.
But Kass says it in a much more entertaining way
“O’Bama!” Musical. (PG). Cuba Gooding Jr. Gene Hackman. Musical about Irish-American Democratic political bosses led by Hackman, who rush to adopt an African-American Senate candidate (Gooding). No, I mean, they really adopt him. Includes the hit song: “Youse Can’t Run Fer Mare If Yer Stuck in Washington, D.C.”
Barack Is Our Nominee
Click on the ad at the right and let’s donate some cash to him to get ready for the fight against…well we’re waiting, but it looks like Ryan.