ArchPundit
ArchPundit
Herseth Looking Strong in SD
Don’t believe me? Ask her opponent who said a close loss would be okay. On Saturday before election day.
Can Dems Win a Congressional Seat In Illinois?
Dan Johnson-Weinberger challenges the notion that any of the current Republican Seats can be picked up by Dems this cycle.
But first Dan, the first rule of speeding on 55 is get behind the Lege plates and draft them–they’ll think you are together and not even think about pulling you over.
But back to the point–four of the Districts are competitive in general for Dems and three in particular this cycle with decent challengers. My rankings of the likelihood of those upsets are
1) Bean
2) Renner
3) Cegelis
I’ll cover the details in the next couple days, but all three have a reasonable shot and Bean has the extra factor of being especially well suited to the district. When you look at the Gore-Bush numbers in 2000 (adjusted for new districts) all three are possible pickups.
In terms of asking DeLay–rumors are Mr. DeLay will be having his attorney doing most of the speaking for a while….
I Guess Scooter Won’t Be Calling Novak Soon
The Dark Prince writes probably the most critical column I’ve seen in a while on the “War against Terror”–That’s the war in Afghanistan if your are confused at home-not the one we are fighting in Iraq which is the “War Against a Really Bad Guy who turned out not to have the nuke program we were worried about—OOPS”.
Quote of the (last) week
That’s generally called a ‘bummer’ and we don’t enact legislation for that.”
? State Sen. Peter Roskam (R-Wheaton) to state Sen. James DeLeo (D-Chicago) when DeLeo tried to win support for a bill that would allow consumers (him) to break contracts with wireless phone companies when the company couldn’t service a certain type of car phone.
How to Confirm the Perception of Cronyism with the Public
It’s hard to imagine a juicier bit coming out than Dick Cheney being tied to no-bid contracts to Halliburton. Remarkably, this administration provides us that juicy bit.
Congratulations! The cover story could be true, but will anyone believe it?
I’d Rather Have Monica Back
The President is apparently showing off the pistol Saddam was caught with.
That’s just weird.
We need less circus and more bread.
Go read the whole thing, but Rich Miller does a job on The Blagorgeous
For over a year, political insiders have marveled at how Blagojevich could maintain relatively high approval ratings despite a complete refusal to engage in even minimal governance. Blagojevich must be another Jim Edgar, many figured. Edgar was a highly unpopular governor under the Statehouse dome, but he was a huge hit with the public.
Edgar was disliked because he didn’t come down to the floor and horsetrade. In contrast both Thompson and Ryan were beloved because they did that. Blagojevich won’t do it and that is the real problem though. Not being a good buddy with the Lege isn’t necessary. But being too slick is a problem with the public and eventually it wears thin. The press generally saw Edgar as a decent guy who was aloof at times, but a straight shooter. With G-Rod, you get the feeling they sit in press conferences and mouth the words he’s about to say.
Wrong. Blagojevich has reported spending an average of about $1,000 a day on polling since the middle of 2002, and we haven’t even seen his totals for this year yet
Wow–that’s a lot. During a campaign that makes sense, but during the year?
Taking on the Lege isn’t a bad thing, but you don’t get credit for blasting them for being cronys when your cronies are appearing everywhere.
Trib Poll: Illinois Senate
Ouch. The good news from the Southtown Poll appeared to be that Jack! had caught up with the President and had roughly the same number of hardcore supporters in his camp. The Trib poll calls that into question.
A Harstad Strategic Research (D) poll obtained by Hotline; conducted 3/25-31 for state Sen. Barack Obama (D); surveyed 806 likely voters; margin of error +/- 3.5% (Hotline sources, 4/8). Tested: Obama and teacher/ex-investment banker Jack Ryan (R).
General Election Matchup
Obama Vote 52% Fav/Unfav 45/9% 73%ID
Ryan Vote 33% Fav/Unfav 31 /20% 84%ID
Undecided 14%
Wilson Research Strategies Released 5/04-5/05.
Obama 44%
Ryan 28%
Undecided 18%
Southtown
Released May 18th
Obama 48
Ryan 40
+/- 4.5
Sample Size 500
Automated phone call poll
95% confidence interval
Obama 52 %
Ryan 30
It’s always bad to have your opponent over 50 because it means you have to take voters away. Right now, Ryan doesn’t appear to even have his base cemented and more numbers in the article point out his problems.
Of voters who consider themselves independent, a key portion of the electorate for both candidates, nearly one in four had an unfavorable opinion of Ryan while only 29 percent had a favorable view of him. Obama led Ryan among independents 46 percent to 27 percent. Even Republicans were unsure about their candidate, with a third of GOP voters saying they have yet to form an opinion about Ryan. Only 19 percent of Democrats had not yet formed an opinion about Obama.
Ryan has a real problem if he isn’t reach his core supporters. He has to lock them up before he can hope for the median voter–who right now is saying they’ll already vote for Obama.
Worse, Ryan is running as closely allied to George Bush and, well, George Bush’s number suck less, but not by much.
Ryan can’t get on message and he is running essentially a negative campaign at this point–he doesn’t have much of a choice when his opponent is above 50 though. But negative campaigns work because they depress your opponent’s voters turnout more than yours–right now, Ryan doesn’t have the base to make that work.
Can Jack Ryan win? Sure. How likely is that? Not very to put it mildly.
To sum up, since election day, three polls put him around 1/3 of voters or slightly less. One poll puts him around 40.
And his divorce files haven’t been released yet.
Trib Poll: Presidential
Let’s Review the Previous Polls
From the Hotline Archives.
ILLINOIS
Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV
A Market Shares Corp. poll; conducted 2/11-14/04 for the Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV; surveyed 600 registered voters in Illinois; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 2/22).
General election matchups:
All
Kerry 52%
Bush 38
Undecided 10
A Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. poll; conducted 3/1-3/04 for Copley; surveyed 625 registered voters in Illinois; margin of error +/- 4% (Copley, 3/14).
Kerry 47%
Bush 39
Nader 2
Undecided 12
Research 2000
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 3/1-3/04 for WEEK-TV and the Bloomington Pantagraph; surveyed 600 likely voters in Illinois; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 3/5).
General election matchup:
All
Kerry 54%
Bush 36
Nader 1
Undecided 9
Harstad for Obama
Kerry 51
Bush 37
Southtown Poll
Kerry 46
Bush 41
Nader 8
Kerry 48
Bush 43
And from Sunday’s Trib….
Kerry 54%
Bush 38
with Nader (assuming he qualifies)
Kerry 53
Bush 37
Nader 4
Approval/Disapproval
37 52
Hard to imagine any worse numbers for an incumbent. For those wacky conservatives at the Leader, you ought to be encouraging the President to stay away except for fundraising–the Presidential election in Illinois is over. Hell even the Blagorgeous has at least more favorables than negatives.
Bush has broken 40 in one poll so far. Now, he’ll break forty in the General, but that is a very poor sign for an incumbent–of course, having below a 50% approval rating is bad for an incumbent and he has a 52% DISAPPROVAL rating.