Let’s Review the Previous Polls
From the Hotline Archives.
ILLINOIS
Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV
A Market Shares Corp. poll; conducted 2/11-14/04 for the Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV; surveyed 600 registered voters in Illinois; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 2/22).
General election matchups:
All
Kerry 52%
Bush 38
Undecided 10
A Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. poll; conducted 3/1-3/04 for Copley; surveyed 625 registered voters in Illinois; margin of error +/- 4% (Copley, 3/14).
Kerry 47%
Bush 39
Nader 2
Undecided 12
Research 2000
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 3/1-3/04 for WEEK-TV and the Bloomington Pantagraph; surveyed 600 likely voters in Illinois; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 3/5).
General election matchup:
All
Kerry 54%
Bush 36
Nader 1
Undecided 9
Harstad for Obama
Kerry 51
Bush 37
Southtown Poll
Kerry 46
Bush 41
Nader 8
Kerry 48
Bush 43
And from Sunday’s Trib….
Kerry 54%
Bush 38
with Nader (assuming he qualifies)
Kerry 53
Bush 37
Nader 4
Approval/Disapproval
37 52
Hard to imagine any worse numbers for an incumbent. For those wacky conservatives at the Leader, you ought to be encouraging the President to stay away except for fundraising–the Presidential election in Illinois is over. Hell even the Blagorgeous has at least more favorables than negatives.
Bush has broken 40 in one poll so far. Now, he’ll break forty in the General, but that is a very poor sign for an incumbent–of course, having below a 50% approval rating is bad for an incumbent and he has a 52% DISAPPROVAL rating.