Define “Piece of Work”
ArchPundit
ArchPundit
Back Today
Really. VX2 spyware variant 3 took out my home computer. It’s about back to normal and so are my bodily functions.
Grrrr….
Never use stat transfer on a data set stored on a network drive–related to the time I was missing.
The Surprise of the Cycle
Cegelis. This is one that shouldn’t be entirely surprising given the Gore-Bush results in 2000: 44 Gore 53 Bush Other 3
If Cegelis wants another run, she should signal it soon, because this should be a DCCC targeted race. Keeping a longtime incumbent to 55, with changing demographics is a potential target. If Hyde steps down it’s an open race or if he sticks around–Crane redone. Dems are still at a disadvantage, but not a great one.
Is Bean the Next Flanagan?
No. Will she have a tough reelection race? Absolutely. Will she lose? Maybe.
Comparisons to Mike Flanagan who held the 5th CD seat between Rosty and the Blagorgeous are rather poor though. To start with Flanagan wasn’t even running a serious campaign before the last coupe weeks when some polling turned up an opportunity. Bean ran in a targeted race for a second time putting down some serious effort to get to know the residents and the institutions of the 8th CD. Flanagan started with nothing, but a protest vote of Rosty, Bean starts with two grassroots campaigns and a ton of voter contact.
Further demographics are different. Bean faces a Republican district, but not one that is overwhelmingly so. I don’t have the 2004 numbers yet for the CDs, but for 2000, the Gore Bush numbers in the current 5th were 66-34 Gore. In the 8th the numbers for Gore Bush were 56-42 and I think that area trended just a tad more Democratic meaning probably around 55-45. A five point swing isn’t easy, but it’s also not a 2-1 disadvantage as Flanagan faced.
It’ll be a top tier race by both the DCCC and the RNCC too, but a President in the second term in the off year is weakest and the amazing level of evangelical voters are unlikely to appear while Dems are still highly motivated and angry.
On top of that, Bean will be able to raise much more money and the Republicans will likely have a divisive primary. Why? Because that’s what Republicans do in Illinois these days.
What Do You Mean By We, White Man
Kevin McCullough just can’t get why those black people aren’t more like whites.
Rich points out the end:
In the election that redefined the debate over morality and biblical virtues in our time – by and large – the African American church could no longer count itself among the community of values.
McCullough is a smelly toad.
The Keyes For Governor Thread is too funny
I love the Leader Loopers. When I’m not feeling anything particularly interesting to post, they come through for me.
Obama on Meet the Press
Sunday morning!
We now have two of the highest profile members of the Democratic Party nationally. Democratic bloggers from Illinois need to build that relationship to help get that message out.
About the Pic
One important thing to keep in mind is that while the conservative evangelicals (evangelical=/conservative as 25% voted for Kerry) aren’t the Republican Party, if about 25% of voters thought moral issues were number one priority and 25% were largely overlapped with white protestant evangelicals with some conservative Catholics thrown on top, what’s going to happen to Republican primaries when these folks come out in bigger numbers each primary than they have in the past? Better get Keyes out of here before he runs for something again.
In Illinois, the numbers were slightly lower due to demographics, but that also means that there are fewer Republicans in total.
