Greg asks a good question over at a New Can of Worms.
The liberal make up of the democrats makes a split a forgone conclusion. This is because they are all competing for government attention. Nationally, Republicans have determined they only want one thing from government and that is to be left alone.
It’s easier to unify around not wanting something than competing for funding…That’s the current national Republican coalition’s advantage.
Logrolling, Greg, logrolling builds coalitions. It isn’t pretty, but it always works.
That said he points out the recent strains between the Governor and, well, everyone else.
Let’s run down the issues:
The following is a summary of several issues Rich Miller is covering at the Capitol Fax:
1) Madigan on the budget–Blagorgeous wants to borrow for essentially current expenditures, Madigan thinks its irresponsible
2) Madigan on education–Madigan is actually worried that the Illinois Constitution may matter. Blagorgeous has moved to a position that is at least Constitutional
3) Everone on University’s health care options–DOA and being allowed to rebid
4) Everyone on reorganization of state agencies–Senate Exec Committee voted a bill out to kill the move
5) Hynes points out the State Constitution to Filan. Filan asks for an audit from the Comptroller apparently unaware of the only appointed State Officer who would normally be in charge of Audits. He’s called the State Auditor.
6) Madigan on trucking fees—Madigan is calling for relief for trucking companies from the last series of fees by Blagorgeous
7) Madigan on Spending–Madigan has called for reductions in Blagorgeous’ call for increased spending
Now there are some issues of tension between Madigan and Emil Jones.
1) The Willmette Bill advanced out of a sub-committee designed to kill it in the House. The Bill would allow for self-defense as a defense against charges for illegally having a hand gun where banned. It’s a strange bill for obvious legal reasons, but it uncovers a little known bit that the Illinois House is far more friendly to gun owners than people realize.
2) Educational issues with a compromise coming out of the Senate on the Board of Ed
3) Madigan brought Senate Minority Leader Frank Watson over for testimony on a bill to reduce the Governor’s ability to borrow
Mostly though, we aren’t seeing a circular firing squad, we are seeing a firing squad with a nice hair cut as the target.
Now to make it worse, Blagorgeous is playing hardball with lege members with press tactics:
THE HOLE Governor Blagojevich is employing an unusual, some say patronizing, lobbying method this week.
The governor is asking House Democrats to fill out a form that reveals whether they support or oppose six bills to increase business taxes which made it through the House Revenue Committee yesterday. The state representatives are required to put their names on the top of the form.
This is a highly unusual method, to say the least. Usually, legislative liaisons wander through the chamber or visit members in their offices and mark up their own rollcalls. This can lead to some misunderstandings and outright flip-flops, however, so the guv has decided to put everyone on record. Word is the governor’s staff has told some legislators that they want to use the form to find out “who our friends are.”
Jones has said no to ag ‘fee’ increases
JONES NIXES AG TAXES Senate President Emil Jones met with some farmers early yesterday morning, then returned to Springfield and said he wouldn’t back the governor’s tax hikes on farmers. The farmers were constituents of Sen. John Sullivan, Jones’ most highly targeted incumbent. The announcement was yet another blow to the governor, whose tax hike plans are rapidly falling apart.
Jones and Madigan have issues, but those are normal tensions. The Blagorgeous is starting to see a wholesale defection and given his apparent inability to do anything, but hold press conferences and look Blagorgeous, he is seriously reducing his ability to work with the Lege.
And he is making a fairly effective challenger within the party of Miguel de Valle.
Normally, the Executive has the ability to divide and conquer his legislative allies, but that is a balancing act and currently, the Governor has shown little ability to attract support and the Lege is showing a fairly decent ability to ignore him.
Geezzzz… I’m aware of all of this, but I haven’t seen it all in one place. It’s a much starker picture.
With regard to logrolling, try to think of what a lot of people are doing as kind of a reverse logrolling. In DC, for example, different groups know that if they don’t get their taxes cut this year, that the Bush Administration will push another tax bill next year. If they don’t support this year’s then they get moved to the back of the line.
Abortion groups know that they are going to have incremental victories as parental notification bills, born alive infant acts, etc. move through. The Ann Stone wing (Ann is really cool, btw) pro choice republicans aren’t as threatened by these issues.
This approach has been successful in shifting the center to the right. Take a look at these maps: http://www.atr.org/maps/index.html and you’ll see a lot of progress on center-right issues.
METAPHOR ALERT…METAPHOR ALERT…
I don’t agree with these people charging the barricades of the state GOP. They practice ineffective tactics that make themselves and the movement they profess to love look horrible.
Politics is a game of addition, not substraction. You don’t move the ball forward through purges. You move the ball forward by being a missionary promoting freedom. You work with the unconverted, because it is useless to preach to the choir.
I hope your sick little one is feeling better.
Greg
Oh, she recovers fasters than I do and so does the other one. She’s fine. Just too much for Ms. ArchPundit alone when she isn’t feeling well.
And your point, while I see it slightly different, is a good one–pushing ideas does make a difference. In fact, much of my criticism of the IL Dems is that they aren’t enough about ideas and too much about power.
And Blagorgeous isn’t pretty. I’ve rarely seen someone with the ability to anger so many people. With a fractured Republican Party he is in a pretty prime spot–but this behavior makes him vulnerable. While Rauschenberger seems to be behind O’Malley, I can easily see a Rauschenberger victory over Blagojevich. Blagojevich’s breezy bs is susceptible to a no BS guy who is sarcastic in one-on-ones.
Are familiar with Skowronek’s typology on presidential leadership styles? One of them is peremptory (spelling?).
Wilson, Nixon, Clinton and who knows maybe W had styles that really drove the opposition batty. In Dick Morris’ vernacular it is triangulation, where you steal the opposition’s popular ideas.
Sometimes these guys have problems in their own ranks, Wilson and Nixon were undermined by some in their own party. Maybe Blago, too.
It may be something to consider…
I think Daley will take him out if he can get a Republican who is friendly. He did it in 1998 to a decent guy, he’d have no qualms about doing it in 2006 to a pain in the butt.