Call It A Comeback
Our very own Andy McKenna used Conquest in his race for Illinois Senate.
Interesting thing about them—they don’t actually do much legit work.
Now, put that together with liberals heart Osama and you see what the hell is going on.
What’s great is how far people generally go to bend over backwards to claim something is similar to something else. Zorn shows an offensive mailer suggesting liberal Democrats want to withdraw from the battlefield against terrorists. One might find a few of these–usually on Fox News where they go out of their way to find such examples–but it’s not a significant group of people.
Many do make a distinction between Iraq and the War on Terror as do most Americans–so if that mailer is attacking anyone who can distinguish the two, it’s a minority position the IL GOP is arguing from.
But more to the point, Republicans are pulling out Robocalls and harassing people with them. Not just a few push polls about special interests that might be obnoxious, but hardly over the top, but making calls that seem like they are from the Democrat unless one makes it all the way through and making them repeatedly to the same house. One is not like the other. Attempting to make it seem like Democrats are harrassing voters with robocalls isn’t a push poll, it isn’t a GOTV message, it isn’t within the bounds the game should be played.
It is voter suppression. And it’s wrong.
Those who try and dismiss it as something that both parties are doing because both make robocalls obviously didn’t do well on the SAT section asking what is not like the other. Both efforts are easily distinguishable from one another and should be described as different by the press. As should the phone calls going out in different areas giving false voting information for where to vote.
More to the point, it’s something that does directly affect voter perception of the election and the press is largely ignoring it. When something is shaping voter perceptions the typical response of much of the press corps is to get competing quotes. The problem in this case is the action is taking place at the national level and everyone’s trying to avoid talking about it. It shouldn’t matter. They are taking place and they are harrassing. That’s a story.
Since I posted the report on 14 I figure I should also point to this on McCulloch. McCulloch is a partisan pollster and was off on the Bean race two years ago, but he’s also done other polling that’s decent. I’d say something went wrong in PA for him though because he’s the only one showing any significant movement.
Some turnout nuggets from Dem congressional campaign sources:
GOTV rallies have been larger than expected: 6K showed up for Bill Clinton’s last-minute visit to AZ 05.
In IL 06, the DCCC canvassing program stormed through two days worth of precincts in less than one day
In IN 08, “huge numbers of volunteers” are showing up
600 volunteers spent Sunday making calls on behalf of Dem Angie Paccione in CO 04
The DCCC claims early vote success in FL (Hotline reporting, 11/6).
Pretty much confirmed in comments and e-mail here.
It’s not just going to eat up the news cycle, it’s going to create one on Sports Talk radio. The place that makes political talk radio look rational.
Getting the phone calls to call the NRCC and explain to them what a pain in the ass the calls are:
(202) 479-7000
To make it easy for our press corps–the press enquiries go to 716-208-1870. I have a feeling it’s going to be awfully busy.
Seriously, hand out the numbers to those getting the calls. That’s to whom one should complain.
It’s getting worse on the robo-call front–someone–anyone cover this story in depth–please.
And btw, I had a Common Sense Ohio phone call today–though nothing on baby experimentation.
Judy made fun of the Cubs in Bloomington
“Maybe he ought to run for manager of the Cubs,” she quipped in Bloomington. “They’re a bunch of losers, too, and need some help.”
As a Cubs fan I have long learned to take ridicule, but it was perhaps the dumbest place to say it. There are no White Sox fans in Central Illinois. Actually I know one. One. Perhaps Miller counts as two now that he lives in Springfield.
Now, Central Illinois is about half Cards fans so that audience found it funny, but you might as well insult Presbyterians or something.
Judy, stop saying stupid things. Please.
Bill still lives there (Central Illinois broadly, though he hates Bloomington) and here is what he has to say
And she was booed. At her own rally.
How absolutely symbolic of her clueless campaign. I mean, exactly how many votes did she think she’d pick up by saying that?
Stupid, stupid, stupid.
I fully expect to read tomorrow that she also made a crack about the Bears losing to the Miami Dophins, then topped it all off with a few dead baby jokes.
A good dead baby joke might do better actually.
Jack Darin has been circulating the following letter to environmental activists. I agree with everything he says in terms of environmental policy, though I have reasons other than the environment for which I’m critical of the Governor
Dear Illinois Environmentalist:
As you know, we will have three choices for Governor
when we go into the voting booth on Tuesday. We all
know, however, that when all is said and done Tuesday
night, either Rod Blagojevich or Judy Barr Topinka
will have been elected Governor of Illinois for the
next four years.I agree with much of the platform of the Illinois
Green Party, and as a fellow environmentalist, I’m
sure you do too. I also believe that our best hope
for enacting these policies and programs is to vote
for Rod Blagojevich on Tuesday.As environmentalists, we have to ask ourselves, who
would we rather have leading our state, as we face
continuing assaults on our environmental laws in
Washington, and as we face major decisions of our own
about energy policy, clean air, clean water, and
natural areas protection?Rod Blagojevich is the first Illinois Governor ever to
stand up to the owners of Illinois’ coal plants, some
of the heaviest hitters in Illinois politics, and
force them to clean up their act. Cleaning up old,
dirty coal plants has been at the top of the agenda
for the Illinois environmental community for decades,
but Blagojevich was the first Governor to act on these
concerns. On November 2nd, the Illinois Pollution
Control Board approved his proposal to cut 90% of coal
plant mercury by 2009 – much deeper and faster cuts
than proposed by President Bush. Blagojevich stood
up to another powerful lobby, hospital owners, and
ordered them to shut down the 11 hospital waste
incinerators in the state spewing dioxin, mercury, and
other toxins into our air. Eight of them are now
closed, and the remaining three are expected to close
soon.Blagojevich is the first Illinois Governor to
aggressively promote wind power. His energy plan
calls for 10% of our electricity to come from wind by
2015. He has committed to powering the state’s
buildings in Springfield entirely by wind energy.
His energy plan also includes $100 million to promote
“cellulosic” ethanol development, and new programs to
conserve energy.Our rivers and streams are cleaner today than four
years ago, thanks to Blagojevich’s requirement that
all new wastewater plants include phosphorus controls.
Clean water advocates have sought action on nutrient
pollution for many years from Illinois EPA, but
Blagojevich was the first Governor to act on the clear
evidence that nutrient overload is choking many of our
state’s waters. Blagojevich continues efforts to
reform the Facility Planning Area process to protect
high quality streams from poorly planned development.
He is moving to address Illinois’ longstanding lack
of any program to regulate water withdrawals, to make
sure we have enough clean water for drinking and for
wildlife.If it were not for Rod Blagojevich’s vetoes of bills
to let dirtbikes and four-wheelers into our state
parks, they undoubtedly would be roaring through some
of our parks today. When the Bush Administration
proposed logging and selling off parts of our Shawnee
National Forest, Blagojevich objected, and those
threats never materialized. Blagojevich supported
efforts to pass the Illinois Wetland Protection Act,
and is committed to working to fill the wetland
protection gap left by recent U.S. Supreme Court
decisions.Finally, Blagojevich is the first Illinois Governor,
and first Midwest Governor, to commit to serious
action to confront global warming. He has signed a
binding commitment to reduce state government’s
emissions of greenhouse gases by 6% by 2010, and
launched an effort to develop a greenhouse gas
regulatory program for the state. The cap and trade
program recently adopted by California is being
studied closely as a possible model for Illinois.To be sure, environmentalists have had their
differences with the Blagojevich administration. We
have opposed new pulverized coal plants that the
administration has supported, and we will continue to
do so. Blagojevich is not the first Illinois
Governor to champion the Illinois coal industry, and
he will not be the last. We are encouraged that the
Governor’s energy plan does not include any plans for
further pulverized coal plants, but instead focuses
coal development resources on promoting gasified coal
plants, which are far cleaner than pulverized plants,
and at least have the potential to capture their
carbon emissions. The Green Party platform
promotes the same policies.There is no question that the state’s budget problems
have had an impact on the Illinois Department of
Natural Resources ability to carry out its mission.
It is important to note, however, that these problems
began with significant losses during the Ryan
administration due to early retirement, and while they
did worsen during the beginning of the Blagojevich
administration, they have also begun to improve,
thanks to increasing appropriations and staffing
levels in recent budgets. We are confident that this
trend will continue, and that the IDNR will continue
to build strength as the state’s fiscal health
improves.Blagojevich is the only Illinois Governor ever
endorsed by the Sierra Club. I certainly agree with
the majority of the Green Party platform, but it is
also clear that of the three candidates in this race,
none has come close the record of environmental
achievement of Governor Blagojevich.Historically in Illinois, state government’s goal in
protecting the environment has too often been to do
the minimum to comply with the law. While
bureaucratic cultures do not change overnight, more
and more Illinois is asking “What’s the best we can
do?” instead of “What’s the least we can do?” This
is the beginning of a remarkable change for Illinois,
particularly set against the backdrop of what is
happening to the environmental protection framework of
our federal government.As Illinois environmentalists, and as citizens of the
planet, we need that trend to continue. We need to
reward innovation and initiative when it comes to the
major energy and environmental policy questions of our
time. We cannot afford to revert to an era where we
did the minimum Washington asked of us, especially
now.Rod Blagojevich’s environmental accomplishments have
earned him the support of this green voter. I urge
you to consider the record, be proud of the fact that
your state is becoming a national leader on the
environment, and reward this initiative with your vote
on Tuesday.Jack Darin
Excerpts from Rod McCulloch’s poll of IL-14 are below. First, no head to head since it’s from a poll of only likely Republican primary voters. Hastert’s base is strong though from the results
Republican voters in the 14th Congressional District are still solidly behind
House Speaker Dennis Hastert, according to a new poll released Sunday.The poll was conducted by McCulloch Research & Polling, and sponsored by a
potential candidate to replace Speaker Hastert, should he retire after this
election.The poll of 400 likely Republican primary voters, asked if respondents thought
their Congressman should resign as a result of the Mark Foley scandal. An
overwhelming majority, 89.0%, rejected that idea. Only 3.5% of the respondents
thought that Speaker Hastert should resign.The poll also showed that Speaker Hastert’s approval rating among Republican
voters is 87.4%, with 44.0% saying that the Speaker is strongly favorable.
43.4% of the respondents rated the Speaker as favorable.The pollster, Rod McCulloch, said the poll showed that Speaker Hastert is as
strong as ever among his Republican base of voters. “Republican voters in the
district know the Congressman too well to believe the national hype about the
Foley scandal,” McCulloch said. “If anything, the Foley scandal has energized
the Speaker’s base, and they utterly reject Democratic allegations regarding
Hastert’s role in the matter.”McCulloch said that while respondents were not asked about the election on
Tuesday, he said the results bode well for Speaker Hastert’s chances. “Since
this is a Republican district, it stands to reason that the only way that the
Speaker would be endangered is to be abandoned by his Republican base,”
McCulloch said. “It’s apparent that’s not happening anytime soon.”“If and when the Speaker decides to hang it up, he is so popular among
Republican primary voters in the 14th District, that he will have a major say
in who is going to replace him in Congress,” McCulloch said. “All roads to
replacing him lead through Denny.”The poll was conducted Oct. 26-Oct. 30.
The District has a Cook Partisan District of +5 and a Bush Kerry split of 55-44 in 2004. It’ s a Republican District, but only outperforms 6 by 2 points in terms of Republican Presidential votes.
Now, in theory 88% approval amongst Republicans could be a problem in a 55% District because that comes out to about 48% of the vote counting independents who voted for Bush. I’d say it’s safe to say that John Laesch isn’t going to light the District on fire so I don’t see any serious threat since Laesch has low name recognition.
Democrats should consider a strong candidate for the special election to replace Hastert if he resigns or for next cycle when he retires, however. One likely candidate is Chris Lauzen and given his thin skin, he’d be a good target if he were to make it through the primary. On the other hand, he will face competion for the seat so that’s a factor in attracting a quality candidate.
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