All the PDFs are Screwed Up
ArchPundit
Not sure why, but I’ll work on it.
UPDATE: Should be working–mostly
October 2006
Because I Missed It Previously
Normally I’d tell you to go donate to make a point, but Fritchey is pretty safe so just go over and give him some love for having to deal with loons. Then go donate to a worthy Illinois House Candidate to show your support
Herald Endorses Bean and Duckworth
I’m betting a sweep of endorsements.
Pavich Mail
Finally got all this loaded–some very good mail for the Pavich campaign–the first is my favorite. The biggest problem Pavich is having is name ID and getting a critical mass to know who he is. Help him out here
Early Voting Info
Blagojevich has it for the entire state–great resource
Seals-Kirk numbers
New Seals-Kirk data from the Seals camp. Two things stick out–first, Seals’ problem is primarily one of name ID and thus the commercials going up are a big bit of what he needs to do.
Second, Kirk’s job approval/favorability is dropping fast.
Download file (.pdf)
Bush is only at 40% approval in the District so get Dan’s positives out there and pointing out Kirk’s support of Bush are the keys to making this a race.
Rich also has the early fundraising numbers up–check them out–tie for this quarter between the two, but Kirk was far ahead previously. Help Dan out
For more info–I did an interview with Dan a while ago.
Pre Rezko, but Wow
Judy’s numbers are crap (and so are the Governor’s, but they should be).
49% disapproval for Judy compared to 43% for Blagojevich
The survey showed Blagojevich with the support of 43 percent of the voters polled, while Topinka had 29 percent and Green Party candidate Rich Whitney had 9 percent. Another 17 percent were undecided, and 2 percent offered choices for governor not among the names appearing on the Nov. 7 ballot.
Keyesland–and she’s not a wingnut!
I’m taking on the conventional wisdom related to Rezko–I don’t think he’ll matter:
A total of 64 percent say he has failed to keep a key campaign pledge that helped get him elected four years ago?to end corrupt “business as usual” in the Statehouse. Asked to compare the current level of corruption to that of previous administrations, 60 percent of voters said it is the same.
I’m not sure with that cynical of a political environment and high unfavorables for Judy that this is even going to matter. I’m not dismissing the importance of the scandal, I just think voters tend to discount scandals during a campaign.
One of the arguments has been that Blagojevich will depress turnout for Democrats. The problem with such a claim is that Judy is even more unpopular with her base
Among Republicans, fewer than half?47 percent?say they have a favorable view of Topinka, who has held statewide office for a dozen years and was a state legislator from suburban Cook County before that.
While Blagojevich is a drag on the ticket, Judy is a bigger drag on the ticket. Add to it poor ratings of George Bush and anger at the Republican Congress and I don’t see why marginal voters who are conservative will even bother in Illinois.
Perhaps I’m wrong and Rezko will have a dramatic impact, but I think once the mud is this think, it’s pretty hard to make it thicker.
Not Mutually Exclusive
Rich gives us four scenarios related to the Governor’s Ostrich strategy regarding Rezko and Kelly,
Our options here are: 1) Blagojevich knows about the corruption and is a very good liar; 2) The governor isn’t curious enough to delve deeper than a headline and seriously question his friends; 3) He is utterly incapable of trusting any information that contradicts his own beliefs; or 4) U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald is completely wrong, even though he has yet to lose a corruption case.
I see three possibilities that might all be true at the same time. Though one is implausible.