April 2004

Obama/Ryan Analysis

A site I check in on every once in a while is Russ Stewart’s. He does a weekly column on Chicago/Illinois politics–not quite a blog, not quite a regular news column. But one that caught my attention (and was mentioned in comments) was his column on the Obama/Ryan race.

The key graphs to me reflect the demographic changes that Illinois is undergoing in relation to Republican voters:

What is a detriment, however, is the stupor of Illinois’ Republican voters. Republican turnout has declined appreciably. In 1996, when conservative insurgent Salvi upset the party-endorsed “establishment” candidate, Lieutenant Governor Bob Kustra, the primary turnout was 791,645. In 1998, when conservative insurgent Fitzgerald upset the “establishment” candidate, Comptroller Loleta Didrickson, the turnout was 719,522. In 2002, when “establishment” candidate Jim Durkin beat Jim Oberweis and anti-abortion conservative John Cox, the turnout was 825,231.

This year turnout in the Senate primary dropped to 638,502, which is 186,729 less than in 2002, 81,020 less than in 1998 and 153,143 less than in 1996.

Most troubling for the Republicans and Ryan is the fact that from 2002 to 2004, turnout dropped by more than 48,000 in Cook County, 45,000 in DuPage County, 27,000 in Lake County, 29,000 in Kane County, 13,000 in Will County and 146,000 Downstate. The only Collar County where Republican turnout was stable was in McHenry, where turnout declined from 30,636 to 28,758.

It is a bad thing to be a one-party state. While the Speaker is holding the Governor’s feet to the fire over the budget a realistic opposition is better at holding the ruling party from excess. This is why, as in the last post, I mention Republicans who are approaching issues seriously–Illinois needs them–not in the majority mind you, but as a serious opposition party. Right now, with the Republican lurch to the right, that is increasingly a problem. Cross is a moderate, but more and more Leader types are influencing the Party to the right in a moderate state. There is a malaise in the Republican Party and they need a renewal based on the median voter, not purity of thought.

Tom Roeser Over the Top, but…

The Join Cross Site is pushing Tom Cross’ plan to deal with medical liability which in at least Metro East is out of control. Madison is a judicial hell hole and I’m generally not much for the overstatements on both sides in tort reform.

The challenge for reasonable tort reform is to create a situation where doctors, especially in high risk specialties, can practice in conditions that both allow natural risk to occur, but don’t excuse true malpractice.

Compared to Missouri Republicans’ plan, Cross’ plan is incredibly enlightened. Missouri is largely removing the right to sue, Cross is trying to deal with excessive judgments. Roeser’s recent column is posted at the site, and a bit over the top, as Roeser is usually.

A few things Roeser gets wrong–and presumably Cross are nitpicking, but important to think about:

South of Springfield there are no neurosurgeons

Except that the Metro East is largely served by two of the best hospital systems in the country with both midlevel neurosurgeons and truly worldclass ones. South of Springfield, the increasing technical requirements for neurosurgeons aren’t likely to be supported by relatively small hospitals. That is a problem, but a problem in how we allocate health care dollars more than anything. So, that stat isn’t as meaningful as it sounds. The other thing that is missing from Roeser’s argument is that St. Louis City is considered a bad venue for defendants as well though there are plenty of doctors here. So the whole story isn’t just Madison County, but structural changes in the health care industry.

Another section is interesting, but probably needs careful consideration:

a state constitutional amendment enabling the legislature to set a $500,000 cap on noneconomic damages in medical malpractice actions, with the cap pegged to the Consumer Price Index; a guaranteed minimum award for patients’ lost wages, where they earn less than the average weekly wage, and a requirement that attorneys’ fees will not be paid from awards for damages.

I’m a bit concerned about the attorney’s fees not being allowed out of damages. Taking cases is risky and without some sort of strong chance to be paid, then lawyers won’t take the case. Most of us can’t afford to pay the large fees to take on insurance companies so while patients should be able to get the maximum, the maximum might be higher if they are allowed to use an arrangement with a lawyer. That can probably be worked with to create a reasonable solution though. The cap on non-economic damages is certainly reasonable for high risk practices and the ties to the consumer price index is reasonable. I think most of us could live with that.

What is most interesting in the bill is that it seeks to end venue shopping by not banning it, but by taking away the incentives. That seems to me to be a reasonable strategy and better than Missouri where the whole deal is a sop to insurance companies.

Insurance companies are a part of the problem. A balanced approach would involve some insurance reforms as well.

So with some minor tweaks I could live with Cross’ plan. The interesting question is what does Bloviator think? He’s busy, but I hope he comments sometime. The plan is probably not going anywhere this year, but I think after the election this might pick up some traction as even Democrats are signalling something needs to be done. Given the complexity of the issue, this one will take some time to do right.

And if you go the Joincross blog you’ll notice a very half-hearted defense of the Minority Leader’s hair cut. Takes a brave man to poke fun at the boss.

That said, as you look to the right, I have a new advertiser. I thought it might happen, but I had started this well before I knew it would be up now. It had nothing to do with this post. Actually the e-mail update from them did–hello Illinois Democrats!

A bit Slow There, but

back to the grind. And by the way–donate to Obama–to the right. While I might have a new advertiser in the next couple days there are three slots open and another about to open up. From here on out I’ll be rotating the slots daily so they go from top to bottom moving one slot every day. The exception will be the current Obama ad which-as the first advertiser gets the original deal as long as it stays up.

Who Said It?

“The new administration seems to be paying no attention to the problem of terrorism. What they will do is stagger along until there’s a major incident and then suddenly say, ‘Oh, my God, shouldn’t we be organized to deal with this?’ That’s too bad. They’ve been given a window of opportunity with very little terrorism now, and they’re not taking advantage of it. Maybe the folks in the press ought to be pushing a little bit.”

Groan. When the Reader gets this kind of story…

Click the link to get your answer and then start hitting your head on your desk. It’ll hurt less.

In other news, the administration blithely ignores the Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee. The Adults are Back In Charge.

Long Weekend

A little slow here as I regain my composure from a long weekend. Most of it is off the record, so I won’t go into details, but it entailed me drinking like I was 22 again and the body isn’t happy about it. I was going to give a few people a call if I could, but that didn’t work out as I’m consistently behind schedule whenever I’m in the City.

But Most Importantly….

Contribute to Obama at the right. Justin has paid for that ad out of his own hard earned money, let’s make sure he gets bang for the buck! Or as the campaign is putting it. let’s turn Illinois Obama Blue!

Obama-Ryan by the numbers:

Illinois^^^ Post-Primary Report 2/26/04-3/31/04
1stQ 1stQ 1stQ Cash
Raised Receipts Spent PACs Debt On-Hand
Ryan (R) 889,142 889,142 1,040,441 80,500 503,427 209,353
Obama (D) 1,672,503 1,677,934 2,709,044 168,285 76,885 241,271

So we start at a tie, let’s make sure it doesn’t stay that way. As of now, I don’t believe Obama has larger contribution caps though he should have some by the end of the race.

UPDATE: No time to fix the formatting–just go slow.