Call It A Comeback
4pm UPDATE: Very preliminary mid-30s turnout projection for Chicago. Official projection at 6 pm. That’s not bad at all. Still trouble with GOP turnout and downstate turnout. Word is DuPage County is experiencing a small spike in Democratic voters.
The info in the Capitol Fax Extra might impact some of the Lege primaries. Most of the races aren’t contested during the primary, but 26 are.
Rep. Lou Lang is one on the bubble with the party apparatus of the 50th Ward.
Rep. Charles Morrow verse Milt Patterson with good turnout
Rep. Patricia Bailey, D versus Aaron Patterson–released from death row for a wrongful conviction
and in the Senate:
Rep. Carole Pankau, R-Roselle, and township trustee Dennis Reboletti of Elmhurst Carole got some electrons from me here Kind of like Chris Lauzen–probably didn’t need my attention.
Check out some of the new blogs linked in comments–usually as someone’s name. Some look pretty decent and will end up on the blog roll soon.
The first report, besides you all, of what the turnout is like is up at the Capitol Fax:
Low Republican turnout–I’m guessing the mudslinging kept people home.
St. Clair (East St. Louis) medium
Madison (Alton) down
Downstate Democratic turnout is in the crapper
Go read the rest, Rich Miller has many more details. While black turnout is questionable, I have to think poor downstate turnout kills Hull and Hynes.
The Champaign-News Gazette has an article saying overall turnout is low
Here in Saint Louis the weather is crappy and even severe weather in some rural areas. I don’t know if that’ll hit the East side before polls close or not.
First, I want to know if there are any–and that is a question. Second, feel free to leak ’em. archpundit@yahoo.com
I don’t buy that exit polls affect voter behavior in any significant way.
Already a lot of news in comments so let’s consolidate in this thread.
Done!
My precinct’s voting venue was rather lightly populated. Chicago and Cook County STILL use punch card machines, which drives me nuts. There were two Republican voting booths at my location, three Democratic voting booths, and two booths that had no indication of party, but were likely EFL or TTY locations.
It’s snowing today up here in Chicago, so I expect voting turnout to be low.
Two amusing things: Michael J. Fox (“Yakov” in parentheses after the “J.” in his name on the ballot) and Jerry Orbach were running in various county seats. Heh.
Next:
It’s dangerous to give too much weight to random eye-witness accounts at a few polling places, but here’s what I got:
Good news for Obama-
Long lines at 8 a.m. at a three-precinct polling place in Richton Park, (middle class African-American.)Slow in key Hynes areas –
10 a.m. count at three precincts in Orland Park shows turnout at about 50% of ’02 primary. No lines at several 19th Ward and Evergreen Park polling places. Palos Twp. slow too.
From Charlie Cook’s Off to the Races:
Republicans might actually get a bit of a break in Illinois. Jack Ryan,
an attractive and wealthy former investment banker who was teaching in
an inner-city school until recently, is expected to win the GOP primary.
The likely Democratic nominee, state Sen. Barack Obama, is equally, if
not more, impressive, yet does not have the personal fortune Ryan has.
Blair Hull, the fabulously wealthy Democrat, was expected to win the
nomination until revelations about his messy divorce and cocaine use in
the 1980s doomed his chances. National Democrats had counted on this
seat to be the best of all possible worlds, an easy pickup by a
self-funding candidate. Now it is likely to be very close and will have
to be funded through more traditional — read difficult — means.
There are a couple reasons I don’t entirely buy this, but I’ll save that for after the primay. Let me say a lot of smart and connected people disagree with me and agree with Cook.
UPDATE: Charlie Cook is getting around today:
Atrios
Josh Marshall
See the ad at the right? Go use it to contribute…..
Get out there and Vote!
And if there are any exit polls out there, send me some preliminaries!
archpundit@yahoo.com
1. Ryan. But hanging on the skin of his teeth. Being the frontrunner means everyone guns for you. Shouldn’t have sent a negative mailing about Oberweis–he wasn’t going anywhere. Instead provide a positive message. If he loses, he’ll blame the whispering, but the reality will be he slung too much mud while Rauschenberger snuck up.
2. Rauschenberger. Bloggers are largely united that he’ll do better. One, generally Steve is likable and honest so we want him to do better. Two, he is likable and honest and the voters like him. 3. He’s been able to stay out of the mud and no one is touching him meaning he doesn’t get hit with negative mailers. While everyone else is torn down, Steve is riding good media.
3. Oberweis. Won’t move up tomorrow because too many negative ads. If Ryan goes down, he and Borling are the reason. Oberweis just kept whacking at Ryan until it started to stick.
4. McKenna. Playing some hardball, but no compelling reason to run.
5. Borling. Pick up some last minute pro-choice votes amongst Republican women in the burbs, but not much.
6. Wright. Steady, but boring. As this is the last Cattle Call, thank goodness, I was running out of material.
7. Kathuria. Resume to include stints at a major Paper company, furniture store owner, and successful litigant in suing major daily papers.
ArchPundit