From Charlie Cook’s Off to the Races:
Republicans might actually get a bit of a break in Illinois. Jack Ryan,
an attractive and wealthy former investment banker who was teaching in
an inner-city school until recently, is expected to win the GOP primary.
The likely Democratic nominee, state Sen. Barack Obama, is equally, if
not more, impressive, yet does not have the personal fortune Ryan has.
Blair Hull, the fabulously wealthy Democrat, was expected to win the
nomination until revelations about his messy divorce and cocaine use in
the 1980s doomed his chances. National Democrats had counted on this
seat to be the best of all possible worlds, an easy pickup by a
self-funding candidate. Now it is likely to be very close and will have
to be funded through more traditional — read difficult — means.
There are a couple reasons I don’t entirely buy this, but I’ll save that for after the primay. Let me say a lot of smart and connected people disagree with me and agree with Cook.
UPDATE: Charlie Cook is getting around today:
Atrios
Josh Marshall
See the ad at the right? Go use it to contribute…..
I would be highly shocked if the Republicans actually stand a chance this year in the Senatorial races. But then, I don’t have a lot of smart and connected people nodding their heads at me…
I was really impressed with Ryan when I interviewed him. He’s able to sound moderate–he even makes some GOP stuff sound appeealing–without alienating the GOP base.
(BTW, Rauschenberger was the other guy that impressed me.)
But I don’t see Ryan being able to win without addressing the divorce issue. The allegations are out there. But if the allegations are even 50% true, Ryan can’t win that way either.
I suppose Ryan’s best course is to hunker down and hope that something else eclipses the issue. But his ex-wife is too famous and too beautiful for the media to let it go.
The possibility exists for a scenario that sees Ryan winning the primary and then being forced out of the race if the allegations against him are in fact true. Could the GOP then put Jim Edgar on the ticket?
I believe they could caucus a candidate on provided the ballots were not printed.
What ever happened with Bush being nominated too late to be on the ballot in Illinois? Did that get resolved?
If by “traditional” Cook means “Dean-Style” fundraising, maybe.
Obama is the darling of the Limosine liberals who can write big checks and of the blogger-progrssives who can write many, many checks from out of state.
I’ll take another “Ryan” against a funny-named guy once again — rich vs. ‘traditional’ or not.