From the Tari Renner newsletter:
On June 10, the group Democratic Leadership for the Twenty-First Century will be holding an event to benefit Renner for Congress in Chicago. The event will take place at Leona’s restaurant in Chicago. Tickets for this event are $30 or $100 to become a sponsor of the event. If you would like more information about this upcoming event please call us at (309) 829-VOTE.
I’d rank Renner second in the chance for an Illinois pick-up in the US House this election behind Bean and just ahead of Cegelis. Renner’s fundraising is doing well, but Jerry Weller is known for raising lots of cash. So help him out if you can. Click the ad to the bottom right for more info.
Longer comment on this at my blog — but basically, no Dem congressional challenger can win with the current GOP gerrymandered map in Illinois. The only way to elect another Dem from Illinois is to redraw the map. That’s it.
Not so fast Danny,
I can’t speak for the other districts, but look at the 11th (Jerry Weller). In 2000 the reconfigured district went 47% Gore, 2 1/2% Nader, and 49% Bush. That means that Gore/Nader beat Bush in today’s 11th district (that means all Renner has to do is get the Gore-Nader votes. He doesn’t need a single cross-over). Except for it’s Bradys, the major State Reps and Senators are all Democrats (Welch, Walsh, Halvorsen, Dugan, Gordon, Mcguire, and Mautino). Now, Weller did get above 60% in the last election, but I’m pretty sure the guy he was running against only raised $10,000. So that means a little less than 40% of the district will vote for someone just because they have a “D” next to their name. I know going from 40% to 50+1% is much more difficult, but with the money Renner’s raising it’s very doable.
I agree that the democrats got hosed with this map (Why does Rahm need an 88% Democrat District!? Share the wealth! With Hyde!!). Looking at the percentages it’s clear that democratic districts are more democratic than republican districts are republican, which was a strategic error on the part of the democrats, which he have to live with for a decade. But how do you redistrict in a fair way? Is it based on geography, political parity, socio-economic boundaries, or something else?
First things first: who says you have to redistrict in a fair way? If you’re a partisan Democrat, and you’re looking at a GOP map for the IL Congressional delegation, then draw a Democratic map! That’s what the Republicans just did in Texas and Colorado, and it will mean that Illinois residents have to live under an increasingly GOP House of Representatives. So just draw a Dem map (put some more Dems into the 11th from the 2nd — Junior can handle it, throw some McLean County Republicans into the 18th for LaHood, etc).
As to the stats on the 11th, the 2000 election results were in a different map than the current configuration, drawn in 2001. I confess I don’t know the statewide 2002 numbers for the 11th. Anybody else know what they are?
The numbers I was talking about were for the reconfigured 11th. If the 11th district of today was voting in 2000, that’s how it would split. And I agree completely that if we were willing to make democrats a little less safe (a 60% district instead of a 70% district) we could wipe the floor with the republicans.
That’s a more sophisticated analysis of the presidential numbers (you did it by precinct?) than I’d expect. But what were the 2002 numbers in the 11th?