Rich brings up Sweet’s column on Obama supporters wanting him to run in 2008. I started to comment in the thread, but realized I was writing enough to just make a post out of it.
The logistics of running make it impossible to do this early. Getting strong organizations in place in Iowa (unless Vilsack runs–then there won’t be a serious effort there), New Hampshire, and South Carolina is a lot harder to do than just declaring. Especially Iowa and South Carolina are heavy organization states so they aren’t something you just jump into. That no one has mentioned that over at Capitol Fax comments points out the problem with taking the internet too seriously.
He’s doing the right thing though and building up a strong political organization early and making those contacts he’ll need for a later run. One thing to remember is that Edwards was shunned by many of his colleagues because he ran after one term–all of his relationship building would be for nothing. Depending on how 2008 goes that leaves 2012 or 2016 the later date only puts him at 55.
Governor is probably out. Think about the line for that in the Democratic bench with Hynes and Madigan leading it up. Sure, he might be able to win, but it would create more hard feelings than consolidating a base. And as Sweet points out, he’s built up a hell of a national political machine.
2008 will be crowded field with the following probably running
Mark Warner
Joe Biden
Evan Bayh
Chris Dodd
Hillary Clinton
John Edwards
Tom Vilsack
Bill Richardson
Wesley Clark
Tom Daschle
John Kerry
Maybe he takes VP in some circumstance, but running against seven of his colleagues with less than 4 years of experience as the campaign starts, makes it too difficult. Being VP would allow him to burnish his foreign policy credentials–something he’s doing a great job on already working closely with Dick Lugar on non-proliferation issues.
But wait. I thought Obama doesn’t have any positions or experience and only won because Keyes didn’t get the support of the moderates in the Illinois GOP establishment…
Oh… Whew! That’s just what the rabid Keyesians think when they write their baseless-ad-hominem-attax(TM).
Now back to your regularly scheduled reality.
Dick Lugar is a bonehead.
He opposed ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and he’s enable the Bush disaster.
The Dick Lugar that went to the U.S. Senate in the 1970s never would have signed off on massive deficit spending (to pay for tax cuts no less) or the Iraq War.
He’s become just another self-satisfied senator.