ArchPundit

Dan Hynes in Metro East

ArchPundit March 6, 2004 8 Comments

Springfield, IL ? U.S. Senate candidate Illinois Comptroller Dan Hynes will attend rallies in Quincy, Rock Island, Moline, Springfield, Marion, Fairview Heights and Granite City. U.S. Representative Jerry Costello will join Hynes in Marion and Granite City. By the end of the fly around, Hynes will have traveled to 43 counties in six days over the past month to share with Illinoisans his plans to create jobs, provide every child with a quality education, and make health care affordable and accessible.

Marion
2:20 pm Rally at Williamson County Airport
Rt. 13 & Hwy.148

Fairview Heights

4:00 pm Rally at Steamfitters Local 439
1220 Donald Bailey Drive

Granite City
5:00 pm Rally at Steelworkers Local 1899
2014 State Street

Cahokia
6:15 pm Media Availability at St. Louis Downtown Airport
Midcoast Terminal
10 Archview Drive

Democratic Senate Cattle Call 3-5

ArchPundit March 5, 2004 4 Comments

1. Obama. Right now at the top of the polls. Showing significant upward movement in some, hanging just above the others in some. Getting great free press, but largely absent from downstate. This could be a problem if Hull free falls before the election. He is the primary downstate competition for Hynes and if Hull falls apart there, Hynes gains.

The Trib pointed out that Hynes has organization, but so does Obama. While not as broad remember Roland Burris consistently pulled in the high twenties and higher and Roland was no Barack. The A-A machine throughout the state produces a lot of votes as well. The problem is he has little visibility elsewhere.

2. Hynes. Ahead or tied with Hull in the polls and has the organization to deliver his votes. As I’ve been saying since November of 2002, organization typically wins in Illinois and Hynes has it. That said, his commercials may get swept under a torrent of Hull ads. What has struck me about the campaign to date is that while it criticizes the President, it hasn’t been the kind of criticism that excites the base. Labor loves him and he is clearly targeting them with every commercial. One thing about the commercial with his wife–you two don’t look like a couple. I understand she is accomplished in her own right, but she comes off as a random doctor in the ad.

3. Hull. Still taking a beating in the Chicago press. Front page of the Trib today occurred when I thought it would die down. By Monday most of this will be over and it will be on to an $8 million ad blitz. Is it enough? No. Is the ground effort he has put in place good enough? We don’t know.

4. Chico. We have to get this guy on some ticket again. He has been great in the debates, but the strong personalities in this race have shut him out. Strong candidate, weak numbers. Just not his race.

5. Pappas. Might pick up some votes in Chicago with big media buys, but it sounds like the commercials are strange–hence not very effective.

6. Skinner. Hull’s a big boy. Let him take care of himself. Being spun happens to everyone, but generally you shouldn’t be by the other candidates if you are a candidate.

7. Washington. I hope she kept the day job.

Republican Senate Cattle Call 3-5

ArchPundit March 5, 2004 2 Comments

1. Empty Suit! And I actually feel bad for the guy. Leave the child custody papers out of it. They are none of our business. And shame on the others for suggesting there is something dark about his past without having any evidence. Hull at least had an order of protection–this is just empty fishing.

2. Oberweis. Angry at immigrants and flying around looking down at Chicago for no apparent reason.

3. McKenna. Present and accounted for, but going nowhere.

4. Rauschenberger. No money even though a favorite of many papers and even conservative activists. Free media not enough this year.

5. Borling. Nice guy. Not going anywhere.

6. Wright. Making good connections for a different run. But silly rabbit, only multimillionaires get to run on thin records.

7. Kathuria. Packing his bags as he is repaying loans to himself. Thanks for playing.

Southtown Republicans

ArchPundit March 5, 2004 No Comments

The coronation continues with Jack! at 44%, Oberweis at 18% and McKenna at 10%. Rauschenberger is stuck at 4% unable to buy TV advertising. I’m not sure what the hell Rauschenberger did that has led to him having no cash, but this is ridiculous.

Southtown Poll

ArchPundit March 5, 2004 3 Comments

Obama has the lead in the Daily Southtown poll with 28% to 23% for Hull and 22% for Hynes. The key thing is that Obama’s movement is outside the margin of error, so while, as with any poll, there is lots of room as to where the candidates may actually be, Obama is going up. The significance of this shouldn’t be understated, much of Obama’s base are notorious about deciding late so doing well now means he is ahead of schedule. Hull does slide some, but not as bad as the sounds of doom we are hearing in the media. For those in the Chicago media market, the divorce allegations are making very little noise downstate. Hynes shows an increase, and while I’m sure they’d like to be higher, his GOTV operation is strong so this is a very close race amongst the top three.

WEEK-TV/Pantagraph Poll

ArchPundit March 4, 2004 1 Comment

A WEEK-TV/Pantagraph poll by Research 2000 Illinois reports Obama at 22%, Hynes at 20%, Hull at 15% and Pappas at 14% with a +/- 5%.

On the Republican side, the Empty Suit is at 38%, Ice Cream at 15% and McKenna at 10%.

Oh, and W. is losing Illinois:

“In the Presidential race, those who responded to the poll said if the election was held today, 54% would vote for John Kerry compared to 36% for George W. Bush and one percent for Ralph Nader.”

For those Illinois Republicans hoping for national money…just get on without it. The President’s numbers are at the bottom with only hardcore supporters left. Ryan might want to change his web site now to erase all mention of Bush before the general election begins.