Democratic Senate Cattle Call 3-5

1. Obama. Right now at the top of the polls. Showing significant upward movement in some, hanging just above the others in some. Getting great free press, but largely absent from downstate. This could be a problem if Hull free falls before the election. He is the primary downstate competition for Hynes and if Hull falls apart there, Hynes gains.

The Trib pointed out that Hynes has organization, but so does Obama. While not as broad remember Roland Burris consistently pulled in the high twenties and higher and Roland was no Barack. The A-A machine throughout the state produces a lot of votes as well. The problem is he has little visibility elsewhere.

2. Hynes. Ahead or tied with Hull in the polls and has the organization to deliver his votes. As I’ve been saying since November of 2002, organization typically wins in Illinois and Hynes has it. That said, his commercials may get swept under a torrent of Hull ads. What has struck me about the campaign to date is that while it criticizes the President, it hasn’t been the kind of criticism that excites the base. Labor loves him and he is clearly targeting them with every commercial. One thing about the commercial with his wife–you two don’t look like a couple. I understand she is accomplished in her own right, but she comes off as a random doctor in the ad.

3. Hull. Still taking a beating in the Chicago press. Front page of the Trib today occurred when I thought it would die down. By Monday most of this will be over and it will be on to an $8 million ad blitz. Is it enough? No. Is the ground effort he has put in place good enough? We don’t know.

4. Chico. We have to get this guy on some ticket again. He has been great in the debates, but the strong personalities in this race have shut him out. Strong candidate, weak numbers. Just not his race.

5. Pappas. Might pick up some votes in Chicago with big media buys, but it sounds like the commercials are strange–hence not very effective.

6. Skinner. Hull’s a big boy. Let him take care of himself. Being spun happens to everyone, but generally you shouldn’t be by the other candidates if you are a candidate.

7. Washington. I hope she kept the day job.

4 thoughts on “Democratic Senate Cattle Call 3-5”
  1. Full Disclosure: I’m working on the Obama campaign.

    There have been wholesale theft of Obama lawn signs in the Western Burbs.

    Point taken has to the org behind Hynes. Don’t forget to factor in the Simon endorsement downstate. And, I’ve always believed Blacks are undercounted in local polls. This is the only group where the buzz says BIG turnout.

  2. tcf, hope you’re right on all counts. that 49% number i last saw of black voters was diappointing (not that Obama isn’t the right choice for ALL voters)

    maybe someone can set up an Obama sign trap and videotape the perps! Any connection to danny boy’s campaign ought to be worth half a percentage point.

  3. Another poll taken a few days later gave Obama 55% of the Af.-Am. vote. This will increase. I’d expect him to get 70% of that demographic, at least in the Chicago metro area where people will be aware enough of him to know his race. (Well, he’s of mixed racial background, but that’s a whole other debate.)

    I was just looking at Burris’ numbers, and he was getting 73-85% in black wards against Vallas and B-Rod.

  4. TCF–I’m not going to hit all of the campaign hijinks–serious stuff yes, sign stealing no. It is just too much to try and cover and tends to get bogged down.

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