Call It A Comeback
Last polls are out and nearly the last of the newspaper endorsements. Barack is up on the air downstate–notable because it has been a Hynes/Hull affair until now.
The Machine is gearing up for Dan. Tell me who’s up and who’s down. And start putting your predictions into comments.
The Sun-Times explores it with Chris Mooney who doesn’t give much of a guess for a primary, but lots of interesting tidbits
Not the guy chatting up the editorial board about the Treaty of Westphalia
And we didn’t really need to know about Kass’ need for a back wax did we?
Ryan and Obama stay well ahead
Democrats
Obama 37
Hynes 18
Hull 16
Pappas 8
Chico 5
Skinner 1
Washington 1
Undecided 14
Republicans
Ryan 45
McKenna 12
Oberweis 11
Rauschenberger 7
Borling 4
Wright 2
Kathuria 1
The telephone poll was conducted Monday through Wednesday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C. Callers interviewed 400 likely Democratic primary voters and 400 likely Republican primary voters. The poll is considered accurate to within plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Breakdowns for the Dems are:
In the Chicago metropolitan area, Obama was getting 47 percent to 11 percent for Hynes, 10 percent for Hull, 9 percent for Pappas, 6 percent for Chico and 1 percent each for Skinner and Washington. Downstate, Hynes led with 39 percent to 30 percent for Hull, who has done extensive advertising outside of the Chicago area. Obama had only 9 percent of the downstate support. In that region, Pappas had 5 percent, Chico had 3 percent, and support for Skinner and Washington was negligible.
Among African-American voters, Obama was getting 72 percent to 6 percent for Hull, 3 percent for Joyce Washington, 2 percent for Hynes and 1 percent each for Pappas and Chico.
Among whites, 28 percent were for Obama, 22 percent for Hynes, 19 percent for Hull, 10 percent for Pappas, 6 percent for Chico and 1 percent for Skinner.
Fifteen percent of blacks and 14 percent of Whites were undecided.
For the GOP…. Do I even have to tell you?
Rack another one up for Barack
The question about Illinois politics I’ve never been able to answer is why does no one care about Rockford? It is the most ignored place in the state.
Which moron will turn the polygamist murdering his family being a result of gay marriage?
I’ve got Savage. I know, I know, I’m fixing the game.
Jackson and a grocer Ronald Burkle have made a bid for the Sun-Times. That would be strange and interesting all in one.
He couldn’t be any worse than the Alien or Conrad Black.
Crain’s articles require a subscription. If you play around long enough on the site you get in for free, but I can’t explain it. Essentially get a login, login, refresh and go back to the front page.
The Peoria-Journal Star reports that a Mason Dixon poll puts the race at 47 for Kerry and 39 for Bush. While it has Kerry slightly lower than recent polls, Bush still doesn’t break 40. He will in the general, but not by much. 12 percent undecided and 2 for Nader. I’m unconcerned about Nader in Illinois. In fact, the little bastard should have campaigned here instead of Florida last time.
Chicago and Cook (note margins of error are greater in subsamples)
Kerry 58
Bush 29
Undecided 10
Collar Counties
Kerry 39
Bush 48
Undecided 11
Central Illinois
Kerry 38
Bush 45
Undecided 15
Southern Illinois
Kerry 39
Bush 44
Undecided 16
That Bush is held under 50 in Central Illinois is a pretty ominous sign.
Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., conducted the poll of 625 registered voters Monday through Wednesday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
1. Ryan. No evidence of mass exodus and no hard evidence. Have to wonder if dangling will kill him.
2. Rauschenberger. If only.
3. Oberweis. Old white guys who don’t like minorities are a significant portion of the Republican voting block. However, Mark Brown is wrong about the price of his ice cream, it is indeed worth the price, especially for the pumpkin. Brown is correct about the 10,000 scoops of bigotry.
4. McKenna. Bus tour downstate. People confused over why the boring guy wants to shake their hand.
5. Borling. Mainly going for comedy at this point making fun of Ryan. The Channel 2 clip was classic.
6. Wright. Right wing Wright has a future.
7. Kathuria. Touts health benefits of hormone free cows for producing milk for his home delivery milk business on his resume.
1. Obama. On the air downstate. Strangely the only one I’ve seen today. Otherwise stable. Getting love from the DSCC, and Dodd gave him a call.
2. Hynes. Pumping up the machine, working on turnout.
3. Hull. All over the air apparently and workers everywhere. Halsted had volunteers on every corner.
4. Pappas. On the air south, but while the commercial introduces her well, it doesn’t tell anything about her views. A little late in the cycle.
5. Chico. Not much happening except that downstate Officer claims Hull’s people tried to bribe him.
6. Skinner. What is the point again?
7. Washington. Thanks for playing and I’m glad to hear you are successful in business. You have something to fall back on.
ArchPundit