Durbin for Minority Leader
ArchPundit
Yes, please. He’s exactly what the doctor ordered and Bush can threaten him all he wants. Dick Durbin will be the Senator from Illinois as long as he wants to be.
Rauschenberger In
Hang on folks, the race for Governor in 2006 has officially started! WOooohOooooooo!
Capitol Fax Reports Rauschenberger is in!
I’ve said many nice things about Steve in the past. He’s a goto guy on state budget issues and is incredibly bright. I’d considered him a reasonable Republican, until he and Syverson joined in inviting Alan Keyes to Illinois and now I think Rauschenberger has sold his soul to Jack Roeser and Roeser’s cash to win the Republican Nomination fro Governor. Roeser is a wingbat and if that is the campaign it’s going to be, no thank you. If Rauschenberger is the guy to take on the Blagorgeous, I’ll be backing the Blagorgeous thank you very much. He’s a pain the ass, but unless someone primaries him, he’s my pain in the ass.
Someone better get in this race fast if they want to raise the money and paint him as extreme.
The weird part is that O’Malley was running for Governor and now he either has to challenge Rauschenberger or go for some other race.
In other fun, Chris Lauzen is threatening to run for another statewide office.
I love roadkill. Especially when it’s funny so jump on board Chris.
Wait, That’s Chris Lauzen, CPA.
Evangelical Radio
I’ve been talking about it a lot lately and mentioned it a couple times on here–It’s been all Bush all the time. Karl’s plan worked.
President in Illinois
Of course, if the Illinois Republican Party would just move to the right…..
They could lose every election by ten points or more. Keep it up gang!
Bush, George (i) Rep 2,313,415 44.73
Kerry, John Dem 2,826,757 54.65
Badnarik, Michael Lib 31,863 .62
Kerry underperformed by three from my projections.
The lesson here is I ought to only project Illinois races. I had Karmeier by 8 and he won by 10 points.
US Senate
Deluded to the end, Alan thinks that someone wants him to stay. Thanks Syverson and Rauschenberger. We’ll be remembering whose fault this is when he tries to run again or, if the mouth from Maryland runs for Governor against Rauschenberger. That would be irony wouldn’t it?
With 5 precincts out, Obama is just below 70 slightly lower than I expected, but he has the largest win since since direct election of Senators in Illinois. He also beat Keyes by 43 points which is the largest margin of victory. Apparently enough Republicans bothered to protest against Obama instead of voting for 3rd Party Candidates who did miserably given the opportunity here.
With the two party vote, Obama got 71.98% coming just under 72.11% by McKinley in 1920, though it’s important to note, there were third parties that got some percentage of the vote that year.
More votes were cast for a US Senate Race than ever have been before as well with a total of 5043979 beating the 4939558 of 1992. Barack’s winning percentage is greater than Everett Dirksen ever achieved (he didn’t blow people out), or Paul Simon and Alan Dixon. With the Kerry results, it’s hard to believe that Obama wouldn’t have won handily against other conservative candidates, though certainly hardly any of them would have tanked this badly.
Good Notes in Congressional Races
Cegelis came within 10 of Hyde. Two things would be needed here–probably a slightly more moderate candidate and money. Money. Money. Money. It hit close to my prediction.
Renner, well, not so good of a showing and I was completely off on the prediction.
Bean did a great job and after a week or so thinking about her office needs to start running for 2006. I was close on the prediction.
Overall
It was God, Guns and Gays. Every number I’m looking at shows what appears to be an increase in Republican base turnout and that is largely due to abortion and gay marriage. Karl Rove’s strategy to bring out the evangelicals who didn’t vote in 2000 worked. Democratic turnout seems to be up as well, just as not up as much. Ohio’s vote to ban gay marriage probably won this by pulling out evangelical voters.
The House numbers aren’t bad—in fact the difference is that of the Texas redistricting and besides Florida, the losses of Democratic seats were in places that 2 years ago I predicted losing or came open surprisingly and we shouldn’t have had a shot at. The generic ballot did move towards Republicans at the end, but ultimately, it looks like the wave didn’t exist, but instead was decided by local trends and demographics.
That Democrats lost in Georgia Oklahoma, Alaska, South Caroline and even North Carolina shouldn’t be too surprising. That we won in Colorado is a good sign as is the showing in Kentucky. Florida suffered from high evangelical turnout for Bush and Jeb Bush’s handling of the hurricanes which gave him 70% approval. In a close election, that was the difference. Two years ago this was sure to be a bad cycle and it looked like Dems had lucked into some quality challengers, but the geography beat the Democrats.
Akaka (D- HI) Safe Dem even with retirement
Allen, George – (R – VA) Safe Republican
Bingaman, Jeff – (D – NM) Safe Dem–Bingaman got in the mid 60s last time around
Burns, Conrad – (R – MT) Safe Republican
Byrd, Robert – (D – WV) probable retirement–toss up/lean Republican/safe if he stays.
Cantwell, Maria – (D – WA) Safe Dem
Carper, Thomas – (D – DE) Safe Dem
Chafee, Lincoln – (R – RI) Too much to think about
Clinton, Hillary – (D – NY) Safe Dem. Weld or Guiliani can’t run in New York with the current President
Conrad, Kent – (D – ND) Safe Dem as Dorgan is.
Corzine, Jon – (D – NJ) Safe Dem
Dayton, Mark – (D – MN) Tough Fight. Not a great campaigner, but deep pockets probably Dem
DeWine, Mike – (R – OH) Safe Republican
Ensign, John – (R – NV) Safe Rep unless Yucca Mtn. gains salience.
Feinstein, Dianne – (D – CA) Safe Dem
Frist, Bill – (R – TN) Retiring-likely Republican
Hatch, Orrin – (R – UT) Safe Republican
Hutchison, Kay – (R – TX) Safe Republican
Jeffords, James – (I – VT) Safe Dem or I
Kennedy, Edward – (D – MA) Safe Dem even with retirement
Kohl, Herb – (D – WI) Safe Dem
Kyl, Jon – (R – AZ) Safe Rep
Lieberman, Joseph – (D – CT) Safe Dem
Lott, Trent – (R – MS) Safe Rep
Lugar, Richard – (R – IN) Safe Rep
Nelson, Bill – (D – FL) lean Dem
Nelson, Ben – (D – NE) tossup. Could always change parties.
Santorum, Rick – (R – PA) If Dems ever properly run against him, could be a tight race.
Sarbanes, Paul – (D – MD) Safe Dem
Snowe, Olympia – (R – ME) Safe Rep usually. If Dems have few in play, they may go after her.
Stabenow, Debbie – (D – MI) Safe Dem
Talent, James – (R – MO) Quality Challenger could produce a tight race, but R Lean
Thomas, Craig – (R – WY) Safe Republican
Off the bat, one Dem loss with slightly more vulnerabilities, but with only a few races really in play, this could turn a few races hot. Florida, Nebraska, West Virginia may be the biggest races–all current Democrats. Minnesota, Missouri and Pennsylvania have potential to be hot with two being Republican holdings. Maine and Rhode Island have potential, but Chaffee and Snowe are popular moderates. Dems will have to paint them as tied to Bush in those states. Or get Lincoln to switch.
So, the next cycle is tough too. But this cycle isn’t as bad as many are moaning about today. For President, the Republicans have to find someone who excites the evangelical base as much as Bush, but doesn’t scare moderates. That is a tough sell and where the President is especially gifted as a politician. Much like Clinton infuriated Republicans, Bush has an uncanny ability to be speak to two crowds with the same words. The only way he won this was by that skill. There are few with those skills.
Shitty Night
Not looking good for Kerry. New Mexico is probably toast and unless I’m wrong about Ohio, welcome to four more years. It’s probably a booby prize of a Presidency, but that’s not much of a conciliation.
The Senate was more predictable from 2 years out than it was from one week out and the House will be rougly even with maybe a pick-up of one or two or maybe even.
I’m Sitting with 269 – 259
With Nevada and New Mexico open. New Mexico not looking particularly good and Nevada being a toss-up. I’m continuing to drink and thanking the Bush’s I’m out of draft age.
Bean Gives Her Victory Speech!
Crane goes down!