Call It A Comeback
Manzullo, Biggert, Jackson, Shimkus, Stover (IL-19), Schakowsky, Gill (IL-15), Davis and Costello are in and nothing really interesting in there–this won’t be much of a quarter since it really only includes March. .
Wait, one thing, Lloyd Cueto’s committee gave Costello $150
(Hitting head against wall–what a jackass) I’m sure there is some more fun in there, but nothing stands out.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Commit
430 South Capitol Street
Washington, DC 20003
03/02/2006
TRANSFER OF CAMPAIGN FUNDS 25000.00
MEMO
That’s a big chunk of his DCCC dues and most Members pay in installments–that’s a good first payment and I’m happy to recognize him for it.
Raised: 264810.00
Spent: 103508.46
On-Hand: 1292736.88
If you thought the Topinka Tattler might be in mothballs after the primary, nope, this is the group that thinks you have to burn down the village to save it:
We want to be crystal clear about this. No Republican has a duty to support a dishonest Democrat like Topinka – any more than they have a duty to support Rod Blagojevich. To the extent Blagojevich at least has the decency to put a ?D? by his name – he?s more honest than Topinka. A sound case could be made that Blagojevich represents the lesser of two weasels.
Protecting the Illinois Republican brand from further destruction (if that?s possible) is job one. Topinka does nothing but hurt the Party. Topinka and Blagojevich are about equally bad. But Topinka?s bad acts and classless behavior all accrue to the Republican brand and speed its deterioration.
At least we can build the IL GOP with Blagojevich as a foil ? at least we could if we had Party leaders in Illinois who knew what they were doing. Mike Madigan did it when Republicans were in power here, and Republicans did it at the national level when Bill Clinton was President.
Many Republicans will rightly say that this is just a small group, and that is true, but it’s a small group that fights nasty and spends a lot just to make themselves feel better. Rod’s vulnerable, but Judy has a right flank that’s just as hard to protect. Assuming Meeks doesn’t get in (which I’m hearing is a bad assumption), Judy is going to be facing a two front attack for over six months.
With Judy Topinka, Republicans nominated a liberal Democrat as their candidate for Governor to take on Blagojevich. What now?
And let?s not dicker here about that characterization. We and others have long made the case for truth in advertising when it comes to Topinka?s real political affiliation. It?s not just her liberal stand on social issues or her close ties to the Chicago gay activist community. It?s more about who she works with and who she works against.
One has to look at the totality of an individual?s deeds. Appearing on a ballot once every four years with an ?R? by your name doesn?t make one a Republican ? especially in Illinois. We?ve allowed our Illinois Party to be a dumping ground for too many wacky left-wingers that lack the professionalism to make the ballot slating cut performed by Democrat Leader Mike Madigan.
When you get your ass kicked, declare VICTORY!
A Moral Victory
Sixty-two percent of Republicans rejected Topinka on March 21st. In other words, nearly two of every three Republican voters looked at this 25-year incumbent and said ?no thanks!?
The best part is where the wonderful Tattler tries to make the case that Topinka is weak because she only barely got more votes than Eisendrath. Even better, hold up Keyes as a better example.
Keep running to the right and burning down the moderate portion of the party guys, you might just yet reelect Rod Blagojevich. He should send you some flowers.
Why? Because Tom was right in comments, it cracks my ass up. It’s from the National Journal’s Hotline today.
There is something serious here though–and that is when she tries to distance herself from the national party, it distances herself from the people she needs to turn out. She’ll do well with moderates and independents, but without a base, I’m not sure that matters. Many will come home because of ABB–anybody but Blagojevich, but it certainly depresses turnout if she is running away from the national party and the national intensity numbers for Republicans are horrible already.
What is going to motivate socially conservative voters this fall in Illinois? Bush isn’t on the ballot. No Senate race. The downballot races aren’t terribly exciting for social conservatives. Pankau, I think, is the most conservative–well maybe the AG candidate, but frankly I had to think for a second to come up with Stu’s name. It seems farfetched that Petey the undercover homosexual lifestyle investigator is going to get his non-binding referendum on the ballot to suggest to ban gay marriage in the Constitution of Illinois.
There are four big house races, but in one, Weller is hardly a darling of anyone, and in another Zinga is just a bad candidate. Roskam and McSweeney will fire up the troops, but that is only in two Congressional Districts.
Giving Alexi’s problems Radogno has a very good shot despite poor early polling and if Blagojevich has any high placed indictments come down over the summer, it’s possible that Judy could win, but without these external events it’s really tough to figure out how Republicans don’t have a bad year when the base has nothing to go to the polls for.
Gee, rural schools are in trouble….
Instead of beating a path to an urban school to try to make sense of these abysmal graduation rates, Time instead highlighted Shelbyville High School, about 30 miles outside of Indianapolis. There, an estimated 100 kids from the entering freshman class four years ago dropped out. Almost all of the dropouts interviewed by the Time reporter said “teachers and principals treated the ‘rich kids’ better.”
These were not voices echoing across gritty street corners. The students featured in the Time article were poor white kids, many of them from chaotic family backgrounds. Like the estimated 80 percent of Chicago Public School kids who qualify for free lunch, these students from small-town America fit the profile of kids who give up on earning a high school diploma.
There are some problems with the methodology by the Manhattan Institute, but the general issue is addressed decently–IOW, the got to essentially the right place with not the best way to get there.
Rural schools are in very serious trouble—it’s not by accident that the meth problems are so heavy in rural areas, the lack of jobs and increase in poverty is serious in those areas. As farming has changed, good paying jobs in the local communities are leaving–those that don’t leave are more likely to be left behind in the same kind of spiral we have seen in many urban neighborhoods.
The people pushing for the conscience clause and attacking Blagojevich for his order that pharmacies which stock contraceptives actually dispense what they sell upon presentation of a legal and safe prescription are trying to misrepresent the issue as being about abortion. It is not. Plan B is the primary pharmaceutical that is causing the controversy with many trying to claim it causes an abortion. It no more does that than normal birth control pills.
For a basic bit on the science, see PZ Myers’ simple, but accurate description of how Plan B works. .
This is an issue on which we can completely ignore any assertion that life begins at fertilization (which I personally find absurd), because it’s irrelevant: fertilization doesn’t take place. No zygote, no fetus, no embryo, no babies. The claim that this argument is about the life of a baby is null and void, and the opposition to Plan B makes it glaringly, brilliantly clear that this isn’t about the sanctity of life at all: it’s all about controlling a woman’s ovaries. She will not be allowed to tamper with the timing of ovulation.
Remember, if a *pharmacy* doesn’t want to carry contraceptives, it does not have to. However, if a *pharmacy* does carry contraceptives, the *pharmacy* has to dispense those contraceptives upon presentation of a legal and safe prescription. If the individual pharmacist wants an accomodation for some reason, that is between the pharmacist and the pharmacy.
The arguments these pharmacists and their backers are making about Plan B causing abortions is scientifically unsound and should call into question their competence as pharmacists.
I believe Judy backs the order as well so this isn’t a big issue between candidates, but it is essential to understand that many who are pushing this agenda aren’t arguing about abortion, but about a woman’s access to contraception. That is very scary.
I have many, many complaints with this Governor, but let me also point out this issue which he has been clear, has not grandstanded, and simply did what was right.
*Quick point* in comments you want to spell anything like pharmacy as ph*rmacy to get around the spam filters*
Topinka is going to appear with Bush at a fundraiser he is headlining for her–and while there is some puzzlement since Bush is one of the few people to consistently make Blagojevich look popular even on the Guv’s worst days, think about her first problem—securing the base.
While I don’t think the primary was the worst ever, it was one in which Judy was portrayed as a liberal and even to the left of Blagojevich at times. How do you cure that? Well, one way is to tack right, but Blagojevich is ready for that with proposals and press releases and commercials. The other way is to run to the Gold Standard of conservative Republicans and that is George Bush.
While Bush has consistently been unpopular in Illinois, he has 1/3 of voters who support him, apparently no matter what he does and appearing with him and having his blessing will help mend those fears. It also gives Blagojevich a target, but not a fatal one–though, as I’ve said, Blagojevich wants nothing more than to turn this into a race against George Bush and Washington Republicans.
Add George Ryan in there and a repackaging of the Pay to Play Polka commercial and that’s a campaign. That doesn’t mean he’ll win, but it is a strong message if well executed in Illinois.
When you win a primary and you have filed an FEC complaint against your opponent without any actual evidence, be gracious and drop it when you win.
It really pisses people off to be dealing with 2 year old complaints whether or not they are the subject.
That is all.
Rod at 47 Approve, 49 Disapprove
That’s the highest Approval and lowest disapproval in the last year. Let’s remember that under 50 for an incumbent is a danger sign, but the track is rather consistent which is interesting. Still not long enough to say for sure, but it looks at least reasonable.
However, we do see some initial trends amongst Conservative voters in all of the categories broken down. It could well be the effect of the campaign to paint Topinka as liberal. That could be temporary or it might just be spite after a nasty primary, but I wouldn’t completely discount the general trend. I can’t stress enough that we need to see more polls, but that trend is consistent throughout all categories and may well indicate some weakness in the Republican base for Judy. That leaves open questions of whether the movement, if true, is temporary and such, but it can’t be a good sign.
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