Rod McCulloch’s Illinois Poll reports a 10 point lead for Kerry.
The October Illinois Poll of 1200 likely Illinois voters, was conducted October 28-31, 2004. The Illinois Poll is a monthly statewide poll conducted by McCulloch Research & Polling, a Chicago-based firm. ?It appears that there will be no surprises in Presidential politics in Illinois tomorrow,? pollster Rod McCulloch said. ?Senator Kerry should win by about the same margin that Al Gore did in 2000.?
According to the poll, Senator Kerry holds a ten-point lead in Illinois, a state considered to be a ?Blue? or Kerry state from the beginning of the campaign. Former Vice President Al Gore won Illinois by a full 12% in 2000 (54-42%).
The Democratic stronghold of Chicago fronts Senator Kerry to a huge lead (76-21.8%). Suburban Cook County, formerly a reliable Republican region, also would vote for Kerry, by a margin of 58.5-38.4%, according to the poll. President Bush does hold a lead in three of the other four regions of the state, including the still solidly Republican Collar Counties (55-41), Northwest Illinois (50-44), and Central Illinois (51-44). The poll shows Senator Kerry holding a slight lead in Southern Illinois (48.5-47.0%).
McCulloch is a Republican, but is also working to become the goto guy on Illinois polling so he has incentives on both ends. That said, I’m not one who likes to argue over affiliation. McCulloch’s work is good from what I’ve seen, though all polls have limitations.