CQ has it as a lean Republican
The Cook Political Report Take:
OUR TAKE FROM THE TRENCHES
House Editor Amy Walter looks at the political landscape in the House.
House Rating Changes
June 29, 2006
In today’s update, the number of competitive seats remains the same, but four Republican seats move from Lean Republican to Toss-Up (FL-22, IL-06, CT-04 and NC-11) and the open Democratic seat in OH-06 moves from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic.
On May 19, the last time we updated the Competitive House Race Chart, we expanded the number of competitive Republican-held seats from 24 to 36 and reduced the number of Democratic-held competitive seats from 11 to 10.
In our latest evaluation, the overall number of competitive races stays the same, but it has become clear that four races in Republican-held districts have become more competitive, while one open Democratic race has become less competitive.
Moved from Lean Republican to Toss Up are: Clay Shaw (FL-22), Chris Shays (CT-04), Charles Taylor (NC-11) and IL-06 (Open: Henry Hyde)
Moved from Democratic Toss-Up to Lean Democratic is OH-06 (Open: Ted Strickland)
While the numbers suggest that this district is not as vulnerable as the three other Republican-held open seats in toss up (CO-07, IA-01 and AZ-08), it is clear that the contest to replace GOP Rep. Henry Hyde in this suburban Chicago district is going to be very close.
A recent poll taken for Democratic nominee and Iraq war vet Tammy Duckworth showed that she was tied with Republican state Sen. Peter Roskam at 40 percent. Roskam is a solid candidate with a hefty bank account and real base in the district. But, even Republicans admit that the political environment makes this a much more difficult race for Roskam. Duckworth will be portrayed as a carpetbagger with no real legislative experience. Yet, her profile as a war veteran who has no voting record to exploit makes her a tough target.