Heading Home–see you next after the polls close
ArchPundit
play nice in comments, but be sure to drop any information you are picking up!
Illinois Senate
Interesting….
McCulloch is doing the polling for Mel Reynolds. This isn’t unusual as McCulloch does both campaign direct work and work as a pollster so doing polling for another candidate would be somewhat normal.
Capitol Fax has some Sense of Lege Races
He also discusses why he doesn’t make predictions. He makes very good points. One point is that they are silly. For me that is the reason to make them, but I’m also not a journalist who makes his living on his credibility so I think his reasoning makes sense. In fact, I usually overstate my predictions simply because it is fun if a possibility occurs and I call it. See my numbers for Rauschenberger.
And I disagree about exit polling….but we already know that.
Just Another Open Thread
Pretty busy today, so keep dropping any info you see….
More Capitol Fax Turnout
4pm UPDATE: Very preliminary mid-30s turnout projection for Chicago. Official projection at 6 pm. That’s not bad at all. Still trouble with GOP turnout and downstate turnout. Word is DuPage County is experiencing a small spike in Democratic voters.
New Blogs
Check out some of the new blogs linked in comments–usually as someone’s name. Some look pretty decent and will end up on the blog roll soon.
Turnout News! At the Capitol Fax
The first report, besides you all, of what the turnout is like is up at the Capitol Fax:
Low Republican turnout–I’m guessing the mudslinging kept people home.
St. Clair (East St. Louis) medium
Madison (Alton) down
Downstate Democratic turnout is in the crapper
Go read the rest, Rich Miller has many more details. While black turnout is questionable, I have to think poor downstate turnout kills Hull and Hynes.
The Champaign-News Gazette has an article saying overall turnout is low
Here in Saint Louis the weather is crappy and even severe weather in some rural areas. I don’t know if that’ll hit the East side before polls close or not.
Really, Are There Any Exit Polls?
First, I want to know if there are any–and that is a question. Second, feel free to leak ’em. archpundit@yahoo.com
I don’t buy that exit polls affect voter behavior in any significant way.
OPEN THREAD–Tell me what’s Going On
Already a lot of news in comments so let’s consolidate in this thread.
Done!
My precinct’s voting venue was rather lightly populated. Chicago and Cook County STILL use punch card machines, which drives me nuts. There were two Republican voting booths at my location, three Democratic voting booths, and two booths that had no indication of party, but were likely EFL or TTY locations.
It’s snowing today up here in Chicago, so I expect voting turnout to be low.
Two amusing things: Michael J. Fox (“Yakov” in parentheses after the “J.” in his name on the ballot) and Jerry Orbach were running in various county seats. Heh.
Next:
It’s dangerous to give too much weight to random eye-witness accounts at a few polling places, but here’s what I got:
Good news for Obama-
Long lines at 8 a.m. at a three-precinct polling place in Richton Park, (middle class African-American.)Slow in key Hynes areas –
10 a.m. count at three precincts in Orland Park shows turnout at about 50% of ’02 primary. No lines at several 19th Ward and Evergreen Park polling places. Palos Twp. slow too.
Thinking About the General
From Charlie Cook’s Off to the Races:
Republicans might actually get a bit of a break in Illinois. Jack Ryan,
an attractive and wealthy former investment banker who was teaching in
an inner-city school until recently, is expected to win the GOP primary.
The likely Democratic nominee, state Sen. Barack Obama, is equally, if
not more, impressive, yet does not have the personal fortune Ryan has.
Blair Hull, the fabulously wealthy Democrat, was expected to win the
nomination until revelations about his messy divorce and cocaine use in
the 1980s doomed his chances. National Democrats had counted on this
seat to be the best of all possible worlds, an easy pickup by a
self-funding candidate. Now it is likely to be very close and will have
to be funded through more traditional — read difficult — means.
There are a couple reasons I don’t entirely buy this, but I’ll save that for after the primay. Let me say a lot of smart and connected people disagree with me and agree with Cook.
UPDATE: Charlie Cook is getting around today:
Atrios
Josh Marshall
See the ad at the right? Go use it to contribute…..