The Reverse Poshard

ArchPundit March 19, 2004 2 Comments

Rich Miller covers some of the patterns that emerged on Tuesday:

Barack Obama’s victory looks a lot like Glenn Poshard’s 1998 gubernatorial primary win, only upside down.

Poshard won a bunch of small southern Illinois counties with 70, 80, 90, even 95 percent. Obama did the same on Tuesday, only he won a bunch of population-rich Chicagoland townships, wards and counties with Elvis-like margins.

I’ve already told you that Obama took 61 percent in suburban Cook County, but look at some of these township numbers. Obama hit 87 percent in Oak Park Township, scoring 10,315 votes to Dan Hynes’ 616. Yes, you read that right.

What Is Daley’s Play?

ArchPundit March 19, 2004 21 Comments

In comments is the conversation I tried to spur in asking about Daley’s defense of Jack Ryan.

There are two schools of thoughts about what Daley is thinking.

1. John Kass and Rich Miller argue that Daley wants to send the surprisingly popular Obama to D.C. to get him out of the way and keep him from being a threat locally. You can’t run for Mayor from D.C.

2. Joshua in comments and others in private conversations are suggesting that Daley was signalling to white ethnics (etnics to youse natives) that they were free to defect to Ryan. The thinking is that Da Mare for Life is paranoid and wants to sink any possible challenge to his rule. He has coopted everyone he can (see faith based initiatives to African-American churches—also good practices in many ways, but lets face it–political pork) and anyone who might make inroads is a threat so they must be destroyed.

The rebuttal to 2 is that Obama would be far away. The rebuttal to the rebuttal is that may make logical sense, but Da Mare is a paranoid man.

Daley has to be somewhat subtle here because an outright destruction of Obama if he does see him as a threat would incur the wrath of a many African-Americans he has assiduously courted over the years. But there is more than one way to skin a cat.

Discuss.

Berkowitz On Berkowitz

ArchPundit March 18, 2004 4 Comments

Berkowitz describes why so many missed the Obama surge. I certainly fit within his description.

The key line is:
“Mencken was wrong: somebody did go broke underestimating the taste of the Illinois people.”

Some of us who watch politics become somewhat cynical and jaded about the public. I very much fit in that category and I think the one thing that most people sense about Barack whether they agree with him or not on ideology or policy, is that he is decent and smart. I believe Rauschenberger had the same mojo going, though in a much more lowkey way.

Other Good News: Robert Shaw Lost

ArchPundit March 18, 2004 13 Comments

While much of the big story has been the defeat of the remnants of the white machine, there is another significant story in the burbs where the machine of the Shaw brothers took another hit and Robert Shaw was defeated by Larry Rogers.

In this case it isn’t so much being replaced by the more modern versions of politics, but by the Jacksons who, say what you will, are better than the Shaws. Most importantly, the kind of static patronage driven operations aren’t nearly as effective as they used to be.

Trib Front Page

ArchPundit March 18, 2004 10 Comments

Drip, drip, drip,…..

Tracking Obama

ArchPundit March 18, 2004 No Comments

Eric Zorn spent election night with Barack Obama. He extends that in his notebook which is a fascinating look behind the scenes.

Senate Prediction Contest

ArchPundit March 18, 2004 4 Comments

One note, some predicted for both races, some predicted for only Democrats so I’ll break them down both ways.

That said, either way, the winner is
That Colored Fella

Remember Low Score Wins
All 26 (I’m off from Eric by one–perhaps a rounding issue)
Dems 14

Amazing results for him.
Read More

But, you know, if Illinois didn’t count

ArchPundit March 17, 2004 5 Comments

The Novak column today, had a corker,

Illinois also appears to be getting eliminated from serious consideration in the battle between George W. Bush and John Kerry for the presidency because of a change in the way the state is perceived. No longer a classic swing state that could go either way and produce famous standoffs in 1960 and 1976, Illinois is now considered the most reliably Democratic state in the Midwest.

The 2000 election had a lot to do with that revised image. Al Gore won 55 percent of the vote to Bush’s 43 percent, with a 570,000 vote margin. If Illinois were subtracted from the national totals, Bush actually enjoyed a popular vote plurality in the rest of the country.

Josh Marshall tees off on it and another similar argument regarding African-Americans.

Both are based on the rather odd idea that if you eliminate a legitimate part of the electorate, things would be different. It is certainly true, but utterly pointless. Now, if one wants to complain about African-American, American Indian, or, as I’m guessing with the amendment to ban gay marriages, homosexual voters, voting in big blocks then one should address the concerns they have. Not only is the assumption that a group isn’t just as valid as any other, but it assumes they don’t know what is best for them. I’m not willing to be that paternalistic.

The Gadflyer On the Obama Race

ArchPundit March 17, 2004 5 Comments

The new on-line magazine The Gadflyer has an article by Charlton McIlwain on what he expects to see in the race

Open Thread

ArchPundit March 17, 2004 19 Comments

Given the interest is still high, throw some discussions down here.

Secondary thing to do–lots of folks are visiting that have somehow relevant Illinois blogs–put the address in the body and when I get to fixing up the expanded blog roll, I will consider them.