What Is Daley’s Play?

In comments is the conversation I tried to spur in asking about Daley’s defense of Jack Ryan.

There are two schools of thoughts about what Daley is thinking.

1. John Kass and Rich Miller argue that Daley wants to send the surprisingly popular Obama to D.C. to get him out of the way and keep him from being a threat locally. You can’t run for Mayor from D.C.

2. Joshua in comments and others in private conversations are suggesting that Daley was signalling to white ethnics (etnics to youse natives) that they were free to defect to Ryan. The thinking is that Da Mare for Life is paranoid and wants to sink any possible challenge to his rule. He has coopted everyone he can (see faith based initiatives to African-American churches—also good practices in many ways, but lets face it–political pork) and anyone who might make inroads is a threat so they must be destroyed.

The rebuttal to 2 is that Obama would be far away. The rebuttal to the rebuttal is that may make logical sense, but Da Mare is a paranoid man.

Daley has to be somewhat subtle here because an outright destruction of Obama if he does see him as a threat would incur the wrath of a many African-Americans he has assiduously courted over the years. But there is more than one way to skin a cat.

Discuss.

21 thoughts on “What Is Daley’s Play?”
  1. My personal opinion is that daley suspects that there is nothing there (there being the ryan divorce file) or at the very least nothing provable there. If that is the case, then keeping it sealed is probably good for Obama because it keeps the accusations “out there” with no closure to the problem.

    The only thing opening the records guarantees is closure to the situation – the closure may we involve the end of the Ryan campaign but you don’t know until they are open.

    My big fear with this divorce issue – and this may be daley’s fear as well – is that this thing gets out in the open and it’s so bad that Ryan HAS to drop out. In that scenerio the Republicans, I think, would have to convince Edgar to run. No one else really has the political clout to avoid complete embarassment for the party.

    Obama still wins then, i think, but it’s much more of a dog fight than the race is currently shaping up to be.

    Of course, daley could be looking at this as an ethical attorney and acting out of committment to the secrecy of divorce proceedings to protect innocent parties.

    Wait…What am i saying????

  2. I think people are reading too much into Daley’s “defense” of Ryan. For all we know, the entire Cook County Dem. party will be toeing this line to avoid being the ones outwardly going negative–but behind the scenes, they may be pushing it to the press. Or maybe he just doesn’t want to get too involved in this race to make it evident he didn’t pick a horse. If Daley knows the behind-the-scenes machinations are definitely going to be pushing this story, he is simply hedging his bets in the off-chance that Ryan beats “Obama.”

    Is he trying to push “Barack” to D.C.? I don’t know. I don’t know how much of a real threat “Obama” would be to the Mayor’s office, unless the election was next year. Richie doesn’t really depend on the so-called Machine for his victories; he isn’t his daddy. He depends on an enormous and complicated web of business and municipal interests across every party and even going up to the state and federal levels. The Mayor has run his last few campaigns on minimal funds for lack of a serious challenge; but fund raising in Chicago would be an entirely different issue if he had a serious challenger. Mr. “Obama” would probably find previous donors suddenly unwilling.

    Having Daley in Chicago doesn’t just benefit the Democrats and the DNC, it benefits every institution and business that works with Chicago, Republican or Democrat, and from the lowest subcontractor to enormous banking interests. Let’s not forget that in 1983 even Harold faced a split white vote (ironically enough, split by Richie M.) and that more than anything else catapulted him into the Mayor’s office.

    In any case, he has a win/win; having “Barack” in Washington for one term would take the wind out of his sails, insofar as “Barack” has had his eye on national politics his whole life and would be loathe to top out in the Mayor’s office. And if he loses, he would have to figure out a way to stay in the public eye for three and a half years until the next Mayoral election, in which time Daley would be sure to shore up defense of his seat. Pols that supported “Barack” for a national seat would not do so for the Mayoralty, including many Af.-Am. aldermen and County officials who rely on each other and Daley for their position. Prominent Af.-Am. aldermen risk nothing in supporting him for Senator but sending a “reformer” to the Fifth Floor could mean trouble for all of them (Beavers, T. Stroger, E. Smith, Thomas, Chandler, and even Burnett, not to mention the growing bloc of Hispanic aldermen).

    So why is Daley “defending” Ryan? It seems more like careful, sensible politics than some paranoid defense of his seat or some very complicated, very iffy strategy to divert voters.

  3. I strongly disagree with Joshua — and agree with Kass and Miller. Rich Daley has never wanted a statewide candidate to win more than he wants Obama to win this thing. If Barack loses a close race and perceives Daley is to blame, he’s coming after Richie in ’07 — and he will have an angry and energized black voter base behind him — something Daley has never faced. Besides, look at all of Obama’s votes in predominately white wards — astonishing! His clean-cut, well spoken manner will play well with white city workers who hate Daley but would never vote for Bobby Rush or Paul Jakes.

    Furthermore, Joshua’s notion that Harold Washington was a inside-the-Beltway pol who came back home to run for mayor is false. Harold was a Bill Lipinski-ward-healer-shot-and-a-beer-style politician, not a Jan Schakowsky-lets-hold-a-wine-tasting-fundraiser-with-Susan-Sarandon- style politician. Obviously, Harold’s voting record was a lot closer to Jan’s, but my point is Harold was a Chicago guy, not a Washington guy.

    I think we all can agree Obama has much more of a Washington pedigree. If Barack wins in November he will immediately become a national figure. Running for mayor would be a major step down.

    Futhermore, Joshua, don’t worry so much about that “Irish-Catholic” cabal hurting Jesse Jr. and Luis Gutierrez. The Jackson family has made a lot of money since Rich Daley became mayor and Little Luis sold out to Richie a long, long time ago. They’re all on the same team.
    Yeah, Richie’s paranoid, but you seem to be a little paranoid, too.

  4. Let’s not make it personal here. Let me say Joshua isn’t the only one suggesting this. I have heard it several times over and Joshua wasn’t the first. I’ll let things play out, but I think it is worthy of consideration–as are Kass and Miller’s position

    While Harold was in DC, he maintained the organization and came back–thus Joshua’s point is that the paranoia may still exist and sending someone to DC may not be enough.

  5. Could this just be Daley being Daley, speaking about the personal side of politics, which he also hates? Sure.

    But with Daley it’s multi-level political chess, and, in the end, Daley loathes “movement” candidates. Daley and all those interests that ensure Daley’s survival don’t want any hint of a reformer or an independent building momentum in the electorate. Before Obama, Daley’s biggest concern has always been Luis Gutierrez. Daley fears the latino-immigrant enthusiasm behind Gutierrez that could forge an alliance with liberal whites to threaten his grip. Daley’s affection for Gutierrez is exactly proportional to Gutierrez’s playing nice with the Mayor.

    Wiz’s comment that gives pause is that Obama has “had his eye on national politics his whole life.” I don’t kow that to be true. But assuming it is, that doesn’t mean that going to DC means that he leaves Chicago, and won’t, with the Jacksons, harness his/their power here to influence local politics. Daley doesn’t want that, either.

    If Obama loses, it would be very tough to re-build what he now has. That doesn’t mean he can’t, but the 5th floor knows how hard it would be and that would give them the advantage going forward.

    Look, I am not a conspiracy theorist — just a Daley realist. Daley has survived all these years by never letting another Washington rise again.

  6. When it comes to the mayors race, I am still convinced that the only person daley really has to worry about is Jackson Jr. However, I also do subscribe to the theory that they have an unspoken agreement that they won’t run against each other nor will either run anyone of substance against the other when they want to be mayor.

  7. Well, well. My only comment in return is that “Little Luis” seems a bit ad hominem and certainly unseemly. As for the rest, I stand by my argument and hope I am wrong, or, at least, that Richie won’t succeed at whatever he’s up to.

    Cheers everyone.

  8. Gutierrez? Daley’s biggest threat?
    Daley made Luis. In the late ’80s, Gutierrez and a lot of other Hispanic pols were excited about the much talked about creation of a Hispanic congressional district after the ’90 census. That’s why he was one of the first pols of any race to back Richie in ’89 — and the mayor paid him back with his support. In ’92, the new Hispanic district had a big Hispanic population, but the voter registration was actually about 60 percent white. Daley rebuked a handful of white pols, including Dick Mell, who wanted to take advantage of this and steal the seat. He cleared the way for Luis.

    Later, Daley stopped Ray Frias from challanging Gutierrez — who wanted to take advantage of the Mexican/Puerto Rican split in the district. Frias had a real shot, (this is before he got in trouble with the Feds,) because there are far more Mexicans in the district, but Daley said no.

    Like I said, Richie made Luis. And if Luis gets the wrong idea, Daley has an insurance policy called HDO.

  9. I think the Mayor is worried about a Latino coming up and forging a Latino-Black alliance as Harold did, but Luis is pretty much a Daley guy. Daley can hold off most black candidates because he can take the white-latino vote, but a Latino can take that and then move onto black voters. Daley has gotten smarter over the years and has moved to even make that harder with cooptation of black ministers and I think I can report that effort is being stepped up next month.

  10. Sheesh.

    Why couldn’t it be just what it was? An off-hand appeal for privacy from a very private man.

    Why must we read evil motives into this?

    Maybe, just maybe, Daley thinks Obama is a good candidate and can beat Ryan without an invasion of privacy? Or maybe he knows that whatever he says, the Sun Times and Tribune will do the EXACT opposite.

    If you think Daley is a racist and was signalling to white ethnics to vote against Obama you need to get off the pipe and move ahead 30 years, you are thinking of the wrong Daley.

  11. I don’t think Daley is racist, but I do think he is calculating. We can look back at the Poshard race where he cut the guy off at the knees to see it happen to another Democrat. If he perceives a threat, he’ll go after it. Now, whether he perceives a threat in Obama I don’t doubt. What he’ll do about it seems to me to be a question.

  12. Daley made Luis? I don’t think so. To be sure, Daley and Gutierrez have danced on-and-off over the years, but Marty Castro and the HDO are both reminders of why Daley hasn’t got Luis under control.

    The most interesting: the back-and-forth here and the fact that Daley’s comments are the talk of the political town makes the point: with Daley you never know. And if you’re Poshard (hat tip, Arch) or Castro, you know to keep one eye on the prize and one eye on the 5th floor.

    And Daley a racist: I won’t go that far. But who can forget the “those people” comment from his race against Rush.

  13. The one who got cut off at the knees was Blair Hull. It was Daley who told him to skip the 5th district race and shoot for the Senate seat. Now he comes out after the fact against opening divorce records. He is doing the good cop and making nice so Blair opens the purse strings.

  14. Let’s focus on some “substance” coming from Ryan. On ABC 7 in Chicago, he’s quoted as being in favor of attacking Iraq (making the predictable claim that if Obama had his way Saddam would still be in power), but he then goes on to say that he WILL NOT vote for any more aid to rebuild Iraq.

    So let me get this straight, the GOP candidate would blow the hell out of a country, and then leave it on its own to rebuild without any help from us? Hmm, that sounds like a good way to foster democracy and make friends in the Middle East. What a putz.

  15. While I concede a whole lot to Daley’s vanity and calculation, I don’t see much upside for him in kneecapping Obama. If he succeeds, he has instantly created a massive anti-Daley constituency. If he fails–and he could, considering Obama’s numbers in Chicago and the people he mobilized–he looks weak, something he can’t afford. In either case he invites a challenge, and although I imagine he would survive, even a close shave would damage his power immensely.

    This would be different, I suspect, if Obama’s margin were smaller. And certainly if Obama were running for Governor, Daley would be looking to spike this campaign. But a senator can’t threaten Daley like a governor can. So it looks to me that Obama is the kind of person Daley would want inside the proverbial tent.

    And it’s not as though the mayor isn’t given to saying things that aren’t obviously useful politically (gay marriage, etc.). It is possible that we overstate his calculation. He probably meant what he said.

  16. I have to agree with Joshua about Luis. This notion that he “sold out” to Daley is silly. People’s unrepentant hatred of Daley tends to cause them to overstate the case. He needed the help to get to congress not only for himself, but to make sure his community was represented. It was a quid-pro-quo, not a deal with the devil. Making a deal with a powerful municipal leader to get to the country’s second-highest legislative office was a smart tactical move that has paid off for Luis and his community. A lot of Hispanics went with Evans in 89 and that really gutted some of the early Hispanic leadership.

    As for “Barack” whoever said that Harvard graduates don’t build street operations was right. He won not because of his people on the street (many of them were either lent to him from community groups or were simply out on State Rep races and just did double duty). Remember, his landslide was mostly due to the “soft voter” turnout in the Suburbs and especially the collar–not the result of street ops. “Barack” is not a Chicago guy in any sense–come on, in his twelve years here he’s spent almost all of it (in the career sense) in Springfield, with lakefront liberals as his base. I think his future is in the Senate and then perhaps a series of cabinet positions and other National Democrat activities (a la Mosley Braun). His attachment to Chicago is slight.

    A man running on such a progressive record, and whose specialty is social legislation, won’t have the room or the powers to create a street organization. Harold was a Chicago guy and had the connections to give favors as well as the ability to bring home some pork; and his sense for his urban space gave him the ability to build an organization. “Barack” relied strongly on soft votes and the aide of supportive Aldermen and church groups to get the votes out in the city and south suburbs.

    The entire Chicago “system” benefits all of the big-time city pols, black white and latino. The Machine has given way to something else that is complicit outside of the white ethnic belt, which whittled away a long time ago. And its for real: the littlest pastor in West Garfield Park has allegiances to Daley, and will go as far as to refuse community organizations to hold meetings there. The Jacksons have enormous city holdings (like in River North) that have been operating under the radar for a long time: I’m willing to bet no Jackson will ever run anybody against Daley. A “movement’ candidate could not simply accept the support of the entire Af.-Am. or latino or white political establishment, because that establishment would expect to be left alone to operate: which means no help at all. A “movement” candidate would be a threat to everybody, and although “Barack” won the city handily, he’d have trouble against Daley and a few hand-picked, high-profile African American or Latino cadidates with strong support from powerful South and West side Aldermen.

    Even Harold, who is a personal hero of mine, was guilty of establishing a patronage system, something he was forced to do to repay the support of Machine and organization Af.-Am. pols and organizations. See P. Green and Melvin Holli’s paper on “Affirmative Action Patronage.” A purely progressive ex-senator would be forced to go it alone, and the proto-Machine would run enough candidates to split the vote and get their votes out on the right candidate to hand the victory to whoever their guy is.

    Long story short, Richie just seems to be trying to play the even-keeled municipal official, the “city-manager” role he so cherishes (“Mayor of Chicago is the greatest job in the world!”) and trying to appease his Republican colleagues (like the GOP mafioso Stephens, among others) by trying to be a little non-partisan.

    I don’t think he’s worried about Barack styming his career by getting mixed up in a contentious municipal fight he’d probably lose.

  17. Wiz, Hull lost. You can stop the subtle undercutting of Obama now. What’s with the quotation marks? How is a street operation built with “borrowed” folks not a street operation? No pol just goes out and recruits his/her own army, they forge allegiances with other pols and community groups and support each other. (Wasn’t “Blair’s” street operation inclusive of Mell’s and Rush’s and Luis’s?) Obama’s accomplishment was amazing and promising. Like i said on your site, I’d have had no problem supporting Hull had he won. I don’t understand why you seem to have it out for Obama.

  18. Of course Blair’s street ops were limited to mercs and Bobby and Mell’s people. I didn’t say otherwise. By the way, Luis doesn’t really have anybody on the ground anymore. That is why he was so eager to keep Mr. Flores out of the 1st Ward committeeman race.

    I’m not undercutting the nominee at all: I’m saying what a lot of other people, including his supporters, are saying here; that he has aspirations much higher than Mayor and getting involved in a mucky municipal when he doesn’t really have the resources for that kind of a fight would be counter-productive to his own aspirations. I don’t think his dream is to preside over mundane 5-year CIP’s and broker deals with different organizations looking to get a piece of the pie. The Fifth Floor is practically predicated on opposing the interests of the rest of the state, and so to lose a senatorial race and then become the mayor would actually make it more difficult to run for a national office subsequently.

    In fact, municipal pols do go out and recruit their own organizations. You pointed that out yourself: Luis, Bobby, Dick Mell; in “Barack”‘s case, he teamed up with a lot of suburban township groups and a lot of state reps and senators who have their own street teams (like Emil Jones &c.); he also had a big boost from groups like ACORN (who had a major effect in the 8th and 15th) and the SEIU locals.

    You made my point in your own post: that he borrowed his people, which is not a bad thing (Blair borrowed his, as did Chico, where he had anybody); municipal officials with ties that depend on the current city system would be a lot less likely to lend that support to a “movement” candidate, exactly because a true reform movement in city hall would be detrimental to most of them. That may not be a big deal if they are simply passive about it, but if they are active and slate divisive candidates, it could have reprecussions.

    My response was in line with what a lot of people were saying: he would have nothing to gain for running for the mayoralty, nor is it a sure thing he would win, because he would not have nearly the type of organizational support within the city and could even end up facing down a lot of the people who at least nominally supported him this time around.

    That’s all I was saying. I don’t think he’d ever run for Mayor, I think most people in the Party know that, and I’m not sure he’d win if he ran. That’s all. Take it easy.

  19. But y’all miss the point: it doesn’t matter, in the end, what Obama’s aspirations are, it’s what Daley thinks they might or could be. To the point that Obama’s victory was “amazing and promising”: that’s just it — the Mayor wants nothing amazing and promising on his turf, unless, of course, it’s him.

    Oh, and btw: Luis doesn’t have people on the ground: tell that to Blago. Were it not for the margin Luis provided in the City, Vallas would be guv.

  20. Luis did help Blago, but in a softer way, in Latino media and through friendly proxies. I’m just repeating what I was told by Luis’ own chief of staff.

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