Every Dollar You Give to Obama
ArchPundit
Is a dollar that can be redirected to Colorado, Oklahoma, Florida and South Carolina. Give to the man and help him keep that lead–to the right folks!
Illinois Senate
Houston, We Have a Poll
I thought I was going to burst if someone didn’t leak a poll, but never fear, Obama’s people released a poll to the Hotline–why the Hotline? The big donors get their info from the guys who get their info from the Hotline. As always, polls by candidate pollsters are always subject to favorable questions and interpretations, but this is very interesting despite those reservations:
A Harstad Strategic Research (D) poll obtained by Hotline; conducted 3/25-31 for state Sen. Barack Obama (D); surveyed 806 likely voters; margin of error +/- 3.5% (Hotline sources, 4/8). Tested: Obama and teacher/ex-investment banker Jack Ryan (R).
General Election Matchup
Obama Vote 52% Fav/Unfav 45/9% 73%ID
Ryan Vote 33% Fav/Unfav 31 /20% 84%ID
Undecided 14%
Pollster Paul Harstad: “Capitalizing on his sweeping 53% Democratic primary win over six other candidates,” Obama “starts off with a double-digit lead” over Ryan. The “pivotal” ind. voters favor Obama by a “significant 3-to-2 margin.” The Obama campaign “must raise many millions of dollars to communicate in Illinois’ expensive Chicago TV market as well as its nine other media markets, and to withstand the expected onslaught” from Ryan and the GOP. But “at this early stage” Obama seems “well-poised to continue on his historic rise” (Hotline sources, 4/8).
The 52% number is the important one to me–that means Obama is hitting about the same as Kerry. The 33% number for Ryan is interesting because it is below the Bush numbers and lower than one would expect from automatic Republican voters. The independent numbers are astounding, just astounding.
The one thing to keep in mind is that while I often preach about how Ryan’s name doesn’t matter, this early swing voters might have some confusion about who the guy is. That will clear up by election day.
Assuming the poll isn’t too far off (may or may not be a good assumption) Ryan’s problems only become worse. Supposedly the guy who could challenge in Illinois is fighting off a whispering campaign and bad poll numbers. Given he doesn’t want to fully self-fund, it becomes very difficult to fundraise other than through personal connections–and even those phone calls get returned less and less. He isn’t only going to get 33% in the general, but without some positive press attention, getting on message and clearing out the whispering campaign, he is at best going to reach Durkin numbers which were around 40%. That isn’t a prediction of what will happen because at this point I have little idea of what will happen. A candidate like Ryan should be able to get in the mid-40s. Being dynamic even though very conservative, usually gets you something. Right now, it isn’t.
Look for a poll leaked by Jack!’s campaign or Republican Senate Campaign Committee next week suggesting
A) the problem isn’t that bad
B) people don’t know who this Ryan is yet
Thanks to Ralph for the heads up that the Illinois Leader picked up on the story.
And check out Ralph’s great Illinois/Colorado blog with an even better title, Makes Me Ralph. He’s supposed to be on the front page–one of two mistakes in redoing the blog roll I’ve caught so far. Leader article is here.
The Ryan campaign said today that they weren’t surprised to see numbers like that so soon after the March 16th primary. They are betting that when middle-of-the-road independents become familiar with Obama’s stands on issues, they will re-think their support.
?We expected the first poll done after the primary to show us at a disadvantage, since Obama went through a primary campaign that never truly vetted his extremist liberal views,” Kelli Phiel, spokesperson for the Ryan campaign, said today.
“He is left of John Kerry on taxes, left of Hillary Clinton on live birth abortion and left of Governor Blagojevich on Second Amendment rights,” she said. “His beliefs are out of touch with even the most liberal members of his party and completely out of step with Illinois voters.?
Okay, who else sees the problem here. In a moderate pro-choice state you don’t try to define your opponent as too pro-choice–even if people are against late term abortions, it’s a losing issue. In a state with some of the more restrictive gun control laws on the books and fairly broad public support for those laws, don’t challenge your opponent for being for gun control. If most Illinoisans are reporting similar numbers for Kerry who is for similar tax policy to Obama, don’t attack him in that way. Just don’t, or you will lose and lose badly.
You attack by running to the middle yourself–which Ryan hasn’t done yet and painting your opponent as left in Illinois. So you point out his tax stands that are different than Kerry without mentioning Kerry. You dredge up votes he has that aren’t popular and might be defensible, but require a long explanation. You never play to his strengths and that is just what Phiel did. And for an early poll, you point out that independents are notoriously not paying attention so you play the Ryan card the one time you can get away with it.
The quote doesn’t define Ryan at all and that is leaving it up to Obama to define him for them–never a good thing to do.
Running as Bush or more conservative than Bush really, isn’t a way to win in a state where Bush is unpopular. To date, that is what Jack! has done. Even if you are more conservative than Bush you move the debate away from the where you and Bush are similar and towards local issues your opponent is weak. Phiel misses this. Even in you are serving up red meat to the Leader fans, you want to give them talking points that they can then repeat ad nauseum on talk radio call in shows or letters to the editors. These talking points suck.
Obama’s Effort to Morph Jack! into W
Jack! is trying to paint Obama as too liberal, and Obama is trying to paint Jack! as W.
“Really, I think Mr. Ryan is taking a page out of the national Republican play book and asserting that if you do not subscribe to what I consider a ‘radical’ vision of George Bush’s … then you’re a liberal, and I fundamentally reject that.
“My views and the manner to which I’ve operated are closer to moderate Republicans in this state, like Jim Thompson and Jim Edgar, than Jack Ryan’s are.”
and
“If you like the direction George Bush is taking the country, Mr. Ryan is going to be a better choice for you.”
Of course, the Edgar line becomes a problem if there is a meltdown and Edgar is on the ticket.
The Incompetence of Election Law
“Some are inspired geniuses mindful only of the greater good; some are connivers mindful only of personal good; most are wondering what’s for lunch.”
–Ken Herman of Austin American-Statesman describing the Texas Lege
Essential to the understanding of any legislative body is an understanding of who composes that body. The above quote could be repeated about all 50 states. When it is something legislators care about–like their lunch or wallets they pay attention. When it is a basic issue of good government, they still care about their lunch. Hence, most election law is hopelessly convoluted, often contradictory and usually half-ass.
In a stellar example of this, the State of Illinois doesn’t appear to have a plan to replace a US Senate Candidate who drops out. So remember the fuss in New Jersey over the replacement for Torricelli? This is even more problematic.
For statewide offices like governor and attorney general, the GOP state central committee picks the replacement. But two experts at the State Board of Elections say the law does not mention a U.S. Senate race. They added such a vacancy in a Senate contest is unprecedented in Illinois.
The odds are the state central committee would get to pick a successor, but given the unpredictability and split among the state’s GOP, a lawsuit could be filed to block that.
Even worse, Election Blog hits the issue and suggests a Constitutional problem:
The article does not mention one of the trickiest issues related to this question. Because this is a race for a federal office, the United States Constitution may limit how a replacement may be named. Article I, Section 4 of the Constitution provides that the state legislature may prescribe the rules for picking Senators. If the legislative scheme has a gap, can courts (as opposed to the Illinois legislature) fill it in without violating Article I, Section 4?
The concurring opinion of Justice Rehnquist in Bush v. Gore (joined by Justices Scalia and Thomas) raised a parallel question under Article II (pertaining to state legislatures providing the rules for choosing presidential electors). But an attack on the New Jersey Supreme Court’s decision to allow late replacement of dropout Robert Torricelli in the New Jersey Senate race a few years ago on these grounds failed, and the United States Supreme Court declined to intervene. The issue is far from settled.
We have no idea if this will be relevant in this case, but this is just another case where such problems in the law that make elections with strange circumstances difficult. Not only does the law restrict many people from the ballot, but it isn’t even coherent.
Via Political Wire
Jack! Vs. Ryan
Many of you may wonder why I often refer to Jack Ryan as Jack! Mostly I enjoy making fun of politicians who have silly handles or whatever. This began in the last Governors race with Jim Ryan’s constant whine about being confused about George Ryan. I generally respect Jim Ryan, but it was too much and so much like J-Lo, Ryan and Ryan became J-Ry and G-Ry. And Blagojevich just screams for any number of nicknames, with Rich Miller’s G-Rod my general favorite. Jack! seems natural since it was meant to deflect attention from the last name.
So Jack! gets used when I’m being snarky, but in more serious posts, Ryan does just fine. Obama seems to have nothing fun for a nickname so, to date, he has been spared. In general I use it in good humor. If I really don’t like a politician, usually they end up with a really long nickname like Unindicted Co-conspirator Jerry Costello. Entirely fair, balanced, accurate and true.
Lots of stuff for tomorrow, but now, time for bed.
The Note on DSCC Fundraising
Glenn Brown pointed out the Note‘s Obama mention today in comments:
On a day when Washington is focused on confusion and horror in Iraq, tomorrow’s key job numbers, Sen. John Kerry’s expected $40 million+ (+++++++++!!!!!!!!!!!!!) quarterly take, the DSCC’s $7 million March haul (Thanks, Mr. Obama!), continued GOP fundraising prowess, and on highway bill and welfare reform deliberations — President Bush signs a base-strengthening bill in the Rose Garden at the White House, Sen. Kerry recovers from surgery, and The Note is looking slightly further into the future.
What’s the Issue for the GOP if Ryan goes down in flames?
It isn’t keeping the seat, they expect to lose it. If Ryan can keep it that is a bonus, but not the key. Bush is down by double digits to Kerry in Illinois and the Bush Campaign is already making noises about pulling out. Ryan was recruited because he could partially self-fund and make it a decent race. Even if he didn’t win, he’d be leading the ticket and pull out Republican voters so the down ballot races didn’t suffer. So state lege members in tight races wouldn’t have to worry about turnout sinking their chance. If he goes down in flames too late to be replaced, it could create huge problems for the Party in those Lege races.
And while most of the big news media outlets are avoiding the story, Rich Miller is covering it and getting referenced in the Hotline for it. Miller’s reporting is in a for pay daily newsletter and so I’ll only briefly summarize the work here–he does this for a living, I don’t.
1) Hastert has warned Ryan D.C. money will dry up if Ryan doesn’t deal with the issue.
2) Senate Minority Leader Watson and House Minority Leader Cross pressed the issue as well (and they are really worried). Ryan refused to answer questions about whether he’d appeal if the judge rules against him.
Knowing how this will work, even if information is only mildly embarrassing Ryan has probably lost any favors from these folks later in the race. They aren’t going to put themselves out there for a guy who won’t go along with them.
Ryan’s problems at this point are many. He is spending what should be a press honeymoon, talking about something that is not on message. His opponent is being fawned over in the press nationally and locally more than a candidate usually gets in that honeymoon after a primary.
Ryan is making party elders nervous and whether he realizes it or not, they are threatening to cut him off. He run as independent, he can’t run with a party shunning him.
He is making the press annoyed. The press, out of lots of experience, don’t trust candidates when they say “trust me”. The more they do it, the more cynical and jaded the press becomes. Ryan’s short term press problem could easily be turned into a permanent problem. Ask Hull.
Combine that with a potential appeal against the Tribune and Channel 7 and the press relationship spirals down what will seem like a black hole.
His entire outreach to the African-American community is going in the toilet. First, his opponent is black. Second, he is tied to a President who is not well liked in the African-American community. Third, even if he didn’t expect actual numbers in the African-American community, the image such a courting produces could help him elsewhere. Without it being the story, but instead a “Hollywood Divorce” with a beautiful actress being the story, Jack! goes from a compelling story of giving back to the community to a story about privilege in the court system.
None of this may be fair. He may have nothing to hide, but is deeply concerned about his son’s welfare. And that is all irrelevant. He needs to put this story to bed and do it fast.
Money Problems? LOL
One of the whispers is that Obama is going to have problems raising money. DSCC has to target other races including Colorado, South Carolina, Oklahoma and nominally Missouri (where sources say the DSCC is going to dump a bit of cash and pretend like they care before moving on) and all the money is going to Kerry.
Now, it is still early, but I didn’t buy it. I could be wrong. But liberal big money donors are generally guilty white people who would be more than happy to throw money at a viable black candidate. The Hotline reports Obama, an open seat candidate who would normally be relying on the DSCC, raised nearly $130,000 in 30 minutes for the DSCC.
Obama is making the smart move though in raising those funds. First it gets him good relations with sitting Senators if he gets there and if a pinch comes, he gets help.
Obama in the WSJ
Small bit from the Hotline summarizing it:
Wall Street Journal’s Harwood writes Obama “flavors orthodox” Dem “liberalism with support for welfare reform, charter schools and an overhauled death penalty.” But “his message isn’t milquetoast. He embraced Howard Dean’s antiwar themes, in contrast to the cautious support” that John Kerry provided the WH on Iraq and other Bush initiatives that Kerry now criticizes. Obama: “Democrats make a mistake when we get steamrolled on the front end and then whine about it on the back end.” Given IL’s increasingly Dem cast, “it isn’t likely” that Obama “will stumble. But he could.” Ryan is credible, “and the issue of race remains a wild card anywhere” (3/31).
Obama On Tavis Smiley
I haven’t had a chance to listen in yet. Tavis has a voice for print.