It isn’t keeping the seat, they expect to lose it. If Ryan can keep it that is a bonus, but not the key. Bush is down by double digits to Kerry in Illinois and the Bush Campaign is already making noises about pulling out. Ryan was recruited because he could partially self-fund and make it a decent race. Even if he didn’t win, he’d be leading the ticket and pull out Republican voters so the down ballot races didn’t suffer. So state lege members in tight races wouldn’t have to worry about turnout sinking their chance. If he goes down in flames too late to be replaced, it could create huge problems for the Party in those Lege races.
And while most of the big news media outlets are avoiding the story, Rich Miller is covering it and getting referenced in the Hotline for it. Miller’s reporting is in a for pay daily newsletter and so I’ll only briefly summarize the work here–he does this for a living, I don’t.
1) Hastert has warned Ryan D.C. money will dry up if Ryan doesn’t deal with the issue.
2) Senate Minority Leader Watson and House Minority Leader Cross pressed the issue as well (and they are really worried). Ryan refused to answer questions about whether he’d appeal if the judge rules against him.
Knowing how this will work, even if information is only mildly embarrassing Ryan has probably lost any favors from these folks later in the race. They aren’t going to put themselves out there for a guy who won’t go along with them.
Ryan’s problems at this point are many. He is spending what should be a press honeymoon, talking about something that is not on message. His opponent is being fawned over in the press nationally and locally more than a candidate usually gets in that honeymoon after a primary.
Ryan is making party elders nervous and whether he realizes it or not, they are threatening to cut him off. He run as independent, he can’t run with a party shunning him.
He is making the press annoyed. The press, out of lots of experience, don’t trust candidates when they say “trust me”. The more they do it, the more cynical and jaded the press becomes. Ryan’s short term press problem could easily be turned into a permanent problem. Ask Hull.
Combine that with a potential appeal against the Tribune and Channel 7 and the press relationship spirals down what will seem like a black hole.
His entire outreach to the African-American community is going in the toilet. First, his opponent is black. Second, he is tied to a President who is not well liked in the African-American community. Third, even if he didn’t expect actual numbers in the African-American community, the image such a courting produces could help him elsewhere. Without it being the story, but instead a “Hollywood Divorce” with a beautiful actress being the story, Jack! goes from a compelling story of giving back to the community to a story about privilege in the court system.
None of this may be fair. He may have nothing to hide, but is deeply concerned about his son’s welfare. And that is all irrelevant. He needs to put this story to bed and do it fast.
You don’t have nearly enough comments on here.
I’ve been talking Jeff Smith up to all of the St. Louis residents here (at UMC). I’m also trying to convince some of those that will be there over the summer that they should lend his campaign a hand.
However, for some reason a large portion of the establishment student Dems favor Russ Carnahan.
I agree that the issue isn’t really is Jack! can win (it’d take a lot of crazy things for that to happen), but the negative effect that he could have on other state (and even congressional) races is a big deal. The Repubs are on the ropes right now, and a bad burnout by Jack! could KO them for the forseeable future (which in politics, of course, is not really that long).
Well, Arch-y, I think the first step is to figure out how many competitive state lege races there actually are right now. I’m not being flip: I honestly don’t know, being cooped up in Chicago as I am. As far as I can remember, we elect our state legislators in March every few years, not November. Primaries are the thing.
Are there a number of competitive races in the collars and downstate? If there are only a few, then the GOP has to be just cutting their losses, giving Jack! the bird and focusing on…whatever the hell it is they do.
Our nominee is unbeatable. It will not be close. The only GOPers who will show up will be rabid Bush-ites, and how many of those are left? 8? Unless Everett Dirksen’s corpse is reanimated, it’s going to be a hilarious walk.
Unless, as I said, there are a real number of competitive down-ballot races; then the state party will have some passing interest in at least having Ryan showing up at Metra Stations and handing out fliers. Otherwise, won’t they just forget about it? The last thing they want to do is sap the RNC for Jack “Myriad Ticks” Ryan.
I don’t have the list, but each party identifies Tier One, Tier Two and Tier Three races and then throw resources at races depending upon that.
The biggest battleground is SW Cook/Burbs and I think the west may see a few this year and then Southern Illinois.
The thing people have to understand is that for the most part individuals don’t turn out for State Lege races. They turn out for the top of the ticket. If the top of the ticket is tanking (in Illinois that is Ryan since Bush has effectively pulled out), your turnout goes down and you lose down ballot races. Your party hardcore turnout hell or high water. Your leaners turnout for the top of the ticket. without your leaners you are sunk.
The poor turnout during the primary has GOP leaders terrified right now. They can’t explain it and that means they can’t overcome the problem. Add a risk at the top of the ticket and things don’t look good.
Could an Obama/Kerry sweep have an effect on the only competitive congressional district in Illinois? Shimkus’?
It would be tough, but that is why I plug Bagwell from time to time. The problem is that Obama isn’t going to do well down there so it’d be tough to be what I’d say is likely to be low turnout as a whole in that District. I think it would be a good year to challenge Tim Johnson, but I’m not sure Gill quite has the savvy. Rener would be better off if he lived in the 15th.
I would think Blago and his “Guns for everyone” law will help downstate.
Weller seems the kind of useless boob that could go down in a wipeout. It is a slight Bush district.
I suspect the combine isn’t going to do anything to jepordize the Speakership and the money that follows. Only after the repubs lose the House will you see Madigan and Co. go after their seats.
You really think Obama is unbeatable? Sorry, he may have a great biography but he does have some view (civil unions) that will not play well with Democrats downstate and his tax policies (including his school funding ideas) have been shown in the past not to be very popular.
Then again if you all want to think it will be a cakewalk don’t bother giving him money or working for him…
Remember this state had all Republican state officers less than 8 years ago, Illinois has not become a democratic haven, yet.
OneMan, head planted firmly in the sand, has not been paying attention to the problems Jack Ryan has.
He also does not appear to recognize the overwhelming fact that Obama has already played downstate–even though he really doesn’t have to. This election will be won in the collar counties and the huge totals run up in Chicago, not the rapidly emptying portions of rural Illinois–which Republicans killed by destroying family farms.
Ralph- No need for name calling. As for the “cakewalk,” OneMan, I think its pretty set at this point–barring some disaster. It just must. I don’t think Barack is perfect by any means–that really goes without saying, I’m sure–but the sheer volume of Democratic ballots pulled in the primary + Bush’s tanking approval rating in Illinois = A guy who adores Bush loses by a bajillion. Not quite an algorithm, I know, but still pretty sound, I think. Barack may have some leftist ideas that won’t play with downstate Democrats, but you don’t really think they’ll vote for Jack “Make The Tax Cuts Permanent” Ryan, do you? They would have to be pretty racist and homophobic Democrats to feel so strongly about gay rights and the candidate’s race to vote for someone with Jack “I Heart Bush” Ryan’s policy platforms. They may not like Barack, but there’s no way they’ll vote for Ryan.
And, Arch-y, don’t forget Melissa Bean! She’s wiping out Phil “Too Many Possibilities For A Mean Nickname To Just Use One” Crane in November.
Let’s play nice now. I think everyone posting is pretty smart. I’ll have a post on this later, but we really don’t know why Ryan is acting as he is. There may be damaging information or he might be hypersenstive give the goof who stalked Jeri Ryan. My point now is that he is handling the situation badly and creating problems for himself.
For the record, and a series of posts probably starting next week, I think Ryan is at far more of a disadvantage than Obama, but two things to keep in mind, many candidates who appear inevitable end up not being and neither of these guys have been in this high profile of a race. Even small stakes can lead to big headlines–think back to Rich Williams in 1992. He made some small mistakes and they blew up over and over again. That can happen to anyone, though I don’t expect it.
No reasont to get upset, 11/5 someone will have bragging rights for being correct.
Head in the sand, well at least it is better of other places you could have said it was. Perhaps my head is in the sand.
Don’t forget Obama did lose to Danny Davis once so in some way he is beatable. As for the Bush feelings in this state, it is a long time until November. Look at what happened to his Dad 12 years ago things could go the other way this time.
Obama has a record in the State Senate you don’t think there is even a few votes that can be used to protray him as way to the left?
I agree that Obama looks to be in great shape, looks to have a future as a national figure, and will benefit from Ryan’s problems and pro-Democratic trends in Illinois. But let’s all take a deep breath and relax a little before we’re all overcome by Obama Fever.
Mark Brown wrote in the Sun-Times the day after the election that he expects Obama to be the most significant politician to come out of Illinois since Lincoln. (Let’s see….U.S. Grant, Ev Dirksen, Adlai Stevensons I and II, Richard J. Daley, Ronald Reagan, Jesse Jackson, Paul Simon, Denny Hastert and two other House Speakers….) That’s pretty heady stuff — and maybe it will prove to be true someday, but let’s not get carried away.
There’s a lot to like about this guy and his primary victory was one of the most impressive wins in recent Illinois political history. But do we really know Barack all that well, yet? He’s still a relative newcomer. Don’t forget, he lost a Congressional race to a wounded Bobby Rush just a few years ago by nearly a 2 to 1 margin.
I fully expect Obama to win in November and win easily. But a few years ago I fully expected another African-American, Harvard product from the South Side to have a bright political future. His name was Mel Reynolds.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying Barack is another Mel Reynolds — I don’t get that feeling at all. My point is, you never know what’s lurking around the next corner in politics. Some can’t-miss candidates crash and burn, (like Reynolds,) and some dead-in-the-water politicians make remarkable comebacks. (Richard Nixon was beyond dead after losing for governor of California
in ’62 and he was in the White House six years later.)
Besides, all this Obama hype — even if it is deserved — might backfire. Managing expectations is a vital part of electoral politics — and the expectations for Barack are in danger of going off the charts. It’s getting to the point where if he fails to successfully walk across Lake Michigan before Election Day he’ll be branded a disappointment.
By any measure, the future is bright for Barack. But for his own good, let’s not put him on Mount Rushmore just yet.
Sorry OneMan–carefully note I did NOT call names.
No offence taken even at anything. Considering what comments a different name draws on Illinois Leader you guys are nice.
That and it’s fun to play in the other kids sandbox.
OneMan
Great post by b.c. I’m excited by Obama’s candidacy and what it represents. But I am worried about overconfidence.
good point earlier about the collar counties. and Obama got 10,000 more votes in Dupage than Jack! did! but we can’t stop working now!
Oneman is right.
This may be close.
Better click that ad over on the right side of the page and donate some money to the Obama campaign.
Donating just a few bucks will make you feel oh so good.
the il house republicans are in the hunt in five races in downstate, western lake county and, to a lesser extent, mchenry county.
all five are currently democratic controlled districts, three of which have appointed dem incumbents. but a jack ryan immolation could seriously damage gop chances, if not kill them off completely by depressing gop turnout. a couple of gop seats could also go on the endangered list.
the senate republicans have two downstate races that are in play, particularly one in southern illinois, plus one in lake that might take off if they ever find a candidate. but a ryan nosedive will hurt in every one of those races.
Thanks Mr. Miller–I hate to press you further, but can you point us to what specific races these are, or where someone in Chicago could find that information?
About the only place you can find this info is in my publication because nobody else puts it together until the very last minute.
But the downstate House Dems who were appointed and are now in hot races are: Lisa Dugan (replaced Phil Novak) of Kankakee County, Careen Gordon (Mary K. O’Brien) of Coal City, and Bill Grunloh (Chuck Hartke) of Effingham.
Freshman Rep. Naomi Jakobsson in Champaign County is also somewhat vulnerable because of a particularly strong opponent and a liberal voting record, but her district should help her win. Freshman Rep. Kathy Ryg in Lake barely won her last race and is heavily targeted, strong oppo, lib record. Rep. Jack Franks in McHenry has a hugely GOP district, has always won, but has done some goofy things lately that might possibly hurt him and has a good opponent. Rep. Ricca Slone of Peoria has a great oppo, and I’m keeping an eye on the race, but so far it’s Tier 2 or even 3.
A big question for House GOP leaders is whether they can raise the money to compete. So far, they’re not doing too badly, but they are new and may have trouble disciplining their spending.
GOP Rep. Mike McAuliffe is up against Dem Rep. Ralph Capparelli in a Dem-leaning disrict, but McAuliffe is heavily favored, partly because Cap lacks strong support from local ward orgs, to say the least.
Sen. Gary Forby of southern Illinois was appointed and has a Tier One race in a district that will lean heavily Bush and has a strong opponent. Freshman Sen. John Sullivan in Quincy doesn’t have an officially declared opponent yet, but the race might get hot when he does. Freshman Sen. Susan Garrett of Lake/Cook has no oppo, and is probably safe even if she gets one, but is still one to watch.
Dems, mostly in the House, have a few pickup possibilities as well, but lesser chance than Repubs. For instance, if Jack Ryan drops way down, Rep. Beth Coulson (northern Cook), might possibly suffer.