Call It A Comeback
Not me, but Tom Roeser says it in the Sun-Times.
One problem with the column–there is no law allowing the Senate Nominee to be replaced–the assumption is that the Courts would allow the Central Committee to replace Jack!, but that is far from certain if he were to drop out.
Glenn Poshard seems to have gotten rid of the bad facial hair is the good news. The bad news the Obama Campaign misspells his name.
Given the most recent Rasmussen poll squares with the other polls (also calls into question the Rassmussen poll that had Jack at 40)
Kerry 54%
Bush 38
Having a high profile event with Cheney is, well, stupid.
Then again, Jack is polling below Bush. Tieing himself to Bush gives him nothing to win this election on. The snarky bits about George Soros or Hillary Clinton coming from the campaign aren’t going to work when either has a higher rating than who you are raising cash with.
Jack! is also promising to match every dollar received in donations with $.50.
Now, the millionaire amendment in campaign finance reform is hard to analyze, but that would indicate to me that once this occurs, Jack! triggers higher limits for Obama to exploit. So instead of being limited to $2000 per individual, if Ryan kicks in $509,320 it is $4000. At $1,018,640 its $6,000 and at only $2,037,280 Obama can collect $12,000 a person. At $5,093,200 the limit is $12,000,000 and unlimited party coordinated funds kick in. How realistic is that? If Ryan is planning on spending $15,000,000 in the general–not a huge sum kicks it up to about that. Even at the $3,000,000 for the general he originally pledged, Obama’s collection limits go up. There are some cases where if Obama can raise so much, the limits go back down–but don’t negate early contributions.
Jack has to announce his intentions and once he makes a promise like he does above, he’s going to have file expected amounts and the limits kick in.
Disclaimer: There are about a thousand things I’m leaving out here.
But in a case with a national star running, Ryan spending his own money is going to give Obama the ability to raise high dollar donations again. Now, the one issue there is the less he has to raise nationally, the more available for other races so donate at the right….(sneaky heh?)
10 of 43 Documents are recommended to be unsealed by the referee. The judge now will decide whether to use that recommendation or go further.
A couple problems here for Jack! First, we will see probably the items not directly related to his son’s personal issues so anything beyond the child’s medical conditions, etc will be open. If there is anything embarrassing, he takes a hit for not being forthcoming. If nothing, he looks sympathetic, but commentators will cluck their tongue (including me) that there was a better way–reinforcing the amateur hour tag his campaign has gotten to date.
Second, if it fits with the file that is floating out there, and there is anything in the floating file that is embarrassing and not released, the floating file is confirmed as accurate and will probably be used by the press.
Unfortunately for Jack! while releasing the whole file might be uncomfortable, nothing happening now looks to stop the drip, drip, drip.
Unfair, yeah, but who said campaigns were fair? This campaign has already surpassed the Hull campaign in handling these issues poorly and seems on track to make the Jim Ryan campaign of 2002 (one I’ve called the 2nd worst campaign ever (Bill Simon being the worst)) look like a model of good practices.
Via Obamablog
Bob Herbert at the NY Times writes a love letter to Barack Obama.
And it doesn’t bode well for Ryan. Copied here since there aren’t permalinks:
I checked the database from our last two U.S. Senate race to see what the papers were reporting.
Sun-Times, May 25, 2002 — Democrat Dick Durbin, 53 percent; Republican Jim Durkin, 33 percent.
Tribune, May 5, 2002 — Durbin 49%, Durkin 32%.
Actual result Durbin 68%, Durkin, 31%
Sun Times, April 3, 1998 — Reported the results of two polls, one showing Republican Peter Fitzgerald with 37 percent and incumbent Democrat Carol Moseley-Braun with 44 percent, the other showing a 46-46 dead heat
.Tribune, August 23, 1988 — Fitzgerald 46%, Moseley-Braun 39%
Actual result: Fitzgerald 51%, Moseley-Braun–47%
(Okay, so I hadn’t gone into the National Journal Archives yet for this stuff–good job Eric)
The numbers are closest to Durkin’s race right now, though I have to say to me Durkin was a better candidate than Jack! That said, Ryan will be higher profile and should beat the final results unless the divorce files are a problem. But beating Jim Durkin’s results isn’t saying much.
Jeff Trigg makes a pretty good plea for the Libertarian Candidate in comments.
Vote Libertarian Jerry Kohn for US Senate. 😉 Where are his results in the polls? Yeah, I know. 30% who consider themselves “very conservative” said they were leaning toward Obama. That seems like a strong case to include Kohn in the debates. I bet if someone did a poll more than 80% would agree all candidates on the ballot should be included in the debates. We’ll see what type of democracy Obama actually believes in. Kohn is just as qualified as Ryan. Ryan’s never held office, while Kohn is an elected Library Trustee in Cook County. Ryan is pushing his minimal teaching experience, while Kohn has taught in public schools for years and years longer than Ryan. If that many people dislike Ryan, the voters would probably appreciate hearing about other choices. That used to be the American way.
Kohn’s website is here
Though notice the connection between
John Kerry
Jerry Kohn
Sort of like those old Kennedy-Lincoln conspiracy thingees.
For those unaware, the Daily Kos Community is selecting 2 candidates out of 8 to target their donations–faily significant donations.
So take a look at Obama’s statement and join the community. If you aren’t reading Daily Kos, you should be. And add your comments about whether the community should support Obama.
Via Obamablog
Ouch. The good news from the Southtown Poll appeared to be that Jack! had caught up with the President and had roughly the same number of hardcore supporters in his camp. The Trib poll calls that into question.
A Harstad Strategic Research (D) poll obtained by Hotline; conducted 3/25-31 for state Sen. Barack Obama (D); surveyed 806 likely voters; margin of error +/- 3.5% (Hotline sources, 4/8). Tested: Obama and teacher/ex-investment banker Jack Ryan (R).
General Election Matchup
Obama Vote 52% Fav/Unfav 45/9% 73%ID
Ryan Vote 33% Fav/Unfav 31 /20% 84%ID
Undecided 14%
Wilson Research Strategies Released 5/04-5/05.
Obama 44%
Ryan 28%
Undecided 18%
Southtown
Released May 18th
Obama 48
Ryan 40
+/- 4.5
Sample Size 500
Automated phone call poll
95% confidence interval
Obama 52 %
Ryan 30
It’s always bad to have your opponent over 50 because it means you have to take voters away. Right now, Ryan doesn’t appear to even have his base cemented and more numbers in the article point out his problems.
Of voters who consider themselves independent, a key portion of the electorate for both candidates, nearly one in four had an unfavorable opinion of Ryan while only 29 percent had a favorable view of him. Obama led Ryan among independents 46 percent to 27 percent. Even Republicans were unsure about their candidate, with a third of GOP voters saying they have yet to form an opinion about Ryan. Only 19 percent of Democrats had not yet formed an opinion about Obama.
Ryan has a real problem if he isn’t reach his core supporters. He has to lock them up before he can hope for the median voter–who right now is saying they’ll already vote for Obama.
Worse, Ryan is running as closely allied to George Bush and, well, George Bush’s number suck less, but not by much.
Ryan can’t get on message and he is running essentially a negative campaign at this point–he doesn’t have much of a choice when his opponent is above 50 though. But negative campaigns work because they depress your opponent’s voters turnout more than yours–right now, Ryan doesn’t have the base to make that work.
Can Jack Ryan win? Sure. How likely is that? Not very to put it mildly.
To sum up, since election day, three polls put him around 1/3 of voters or slightly less. One poll puts him around 40.
And his divorce files haven’t been released yet.
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