Zorn on the Senate Polls Past

And it doesn’t bode well for Ryan. Copied here since there aren’t permalinks:

I checked the database from our last two U.S. Senate race to see what the papers were reporting.

Sun-Times, May 25, 2002 — Democrat Dick Durbin, 53 percent; Republican Jim Durkin, 33 percent.

Tribune, May 5, 2002 — Durbin 49%, Durkin 32%.

Actual result Durbin 68%, Durkin, 31%

Sun Times, April 3, 1998 — Reported the results of two polls, one showing Republican Peter Fitzgerald with 37 percent and incumbent Democrat Carol Moseley-Braun with 44 percent, the other showing a 46-46 dead heat
.

Tribune, August 23, 1988 — Fitzgerald 46%, Moseley-Braun 39%

Actual result: Fitzgerald 51%, Moseley-Braun–47%

(Okay, so I hadn’t gone into the National Journal Archives yet for this stuff–good job Eric)

The numbers are closest to Durkin’s race right now, though I have to say to me Durkin was a better candidate than Jack! That said, Ryan will be higher profile and should beat the final results unless the divorce files are a problem. But beating Jim Durkin’s results isn’t saying much.