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Go give them to Barack!
Illinois Senate
Berkowitz Argues Jack! would be the Best Candidate
Like a good recruiter, he sets up a list of qualifications and sees who meets them.
He concludes Jack’s the guy. Now the statement that I think is simply not correct is that Jack was the best guy to win: “Nonetheless, most astute political analysts on the scene in Illinois would say Jack still had a shot to win and perhaps more importantly, Jack had a better chance than anyone else to win.”
I would argue most of the astute analysts thought there was little chance, but the best people to do it were Jim Edgar, Jim Thompson, maybe Judy though I disagree as would Jeff, and Steve Rauschenberger.
I think most people had already concluded Jack! was a disaster. Why?
Let’s start with the Kjellander deal. While everyone is claiming that Kjellander knee-capped the guy, I think Jack! was just the sort of empty suit Kjellander wants in the GOP. When asked by John Kass what all the candidates thought should be down about Kjellander, Jack was talking about the Treaty of Westphalia and didn’t know anything about the Bear Stearns deal. Steve Rauschenberger, who had the nomination for the taking from the party, said Kjellander needed to go and even challenged him for the spot of National Committeeman.
Second, let’s move to the press hated Jack! and his campaign guys. They were annoying, they attacked people on crap that was silly–Jack! couldn’t even explain his own talking points on the tax raising claims against Obama.
Third, Jack!’s staff turned a minor story about taping into a full blown national laughing stock.
Fourth, Jack! had no message. While people close to him rave about his bit on empowerment the reality is that if that was his message he couldn’t get it out.
Fifth, Jack! was down between 10 and 22 points in a Democratic leaning state with Barack tracking with John Kerry very closely.
Did Jack have a chance before lying to the press, the Party and the people? Sure, Obama could have turned out to be a space alien.
Survey USA Poll from Last Week
763 Registered Illinois Voters with 3.6 % +/-
Obama-Ditka
Obama 51
Ditka 44
Other 4
Obama-Ryan
Obama 55
Ryan 37
Other 8
Obama-Oberweis
Obama 57
Oberweis 35
Other 8
Obama beats Oberweis and Ryan in every category except Republicans.
But most staggering are the Ryan numbers when it comes to likely voters. This was a poll of registered voters which this early in a cycle is probably a good idea. We simply don’t know who will turn out this far out. But when you look at the numbers for those with
High Interest in Politics
Obama 55
Ryan 38
Other/Undecided 7
Moderate Interest in Politics
Obama 63
Ryan 31
Other Undecided 6
Low Interest in Politics
Ryan 44
Obama 42
Other 14
As you go down interest level the difference in the likelihood of voting goes down too. And the last number is probably a name recognition measure than anything.
If Ryan gets back in this race he is in deep, deep trouble.
Illinois Republican Senate Cattle Call 7-17
1. The wide, wide abyss. Oh so deep.
2. John Cox. Even Republicans don’t like this guy and he’s the best that can be mentioned. The Central Committee hates him.
3. Jack! Still hasn’t turned in the paperwork. Reports are he was down at the Ditka restaurant event. Why?
4. County Commission Elizabeth Gorman. Even she’s insisting the party provide her with a substantial warchest. A Cook County Commissioner is putting strings on running!
5. Kirk Dillard. Is he flaky enough to run? Keeps saying how hard it would be, but strangely his name keeps getting mentioned.
6. Corinne Wood. Conservatives and establishment pretty much hate her after 2002 primary against Jim Ryan.
7. Robert Plummer. Edwardsville rich guy. Who? What? How about the Edwardsville dog catcher? Oh, he can’t self fund and is probably supporting Obama.
8. Andrea Grubb Barthwell. Umm…you quit your job to possibly run for a Senate seat the Republicans are trying to fill because of a scandal about sex…and you have a hostile environment complaint? Fortunately survival of the fittest should mean your line won’t continue for long.
10. The Ober-Furher. Apparently the only people who dislike this guy more than liberals are conservatives–especially Latino conservatives. Rich Miller had some hysterical anecdotes in the subscription end of the Capitol Fax that suggested there might be a Republican Latinos for Obama. I’m not sure that means much, but when you would start down 20 points every pinprick hurts.
Also, a significant Hispanic Republican leader told me at the same event that he would work hard to elect Obama if Oberweis were the R senate candidate. And, that was probably the mildest statement he made to me.
The man is toxic to conservatives themselves. But he is a favorite of Dems who hope to score a huge victory and free ice cream.
11. Borling. At least John McCain will make some trips to Illinois
12. Norm! George Wendt is more likely
13. Durkin. Uh…remember when he thought this would be a suicide mission before all of this.
14. Chris Lauzen. I just wanted to mention he sued someone over claims whether he had a CPA and then tried to change his name to Chris Lauzen, CPA.
15. Jonathan Wright. It’s only a matter of time before he demands party money to run.
16. Kathuria. Well, on his resume he’ll score a moral victory.
17. Judy Biggert. Offended that she was even asked–“What? Do I look THAT Stupid?”
18. Ted Nugent. Hell, if you are going to lose, really lose.
19. Gilberto Simoni. About as much chance of being US Senator as he is of winning the Tour de France. Given that, that citizenship thing would be a non-issue. The Black Knight of Cycling and the biggest whiner ever. Not to mention doping scandals.
Sigh…Illinois Republican Senate Nomination Cattle Call Comment Period 7-15
Let’s throw out some names and have some fun with this.
Jack!
Uberveis (and if he is the nominee Glenn had better be working on that Edelweis spoof)
Biggert
Barthwell
Durkin
Kathuria
Borling
Wright
Corrinne Wood
Norm!
Nalepa
Kirk Dillard
Clark Pellet
Cook County Commissioner Elizabeth Gorman
Bloomington Barack Meet-Up
First, they should all be there.
Second, have a Guiness and an Ala Baldini for me.
Your Barack Obama for Senate Meetup is happening on Wednesday,
Jul 21 @ 7PM! Please RSVP below and let us know if you plan to
join other Barack Obama Supporters.
Your Meetup in Bloomington, IL is at:
Lucca Grill
116 E Market
Bloomington, IL 61701
309-828-7521
If Barack hasn’t made the pilgrimage yet, his scheduler needs to put it on for the next swing through Bloomington. Jack—Jack Kennedy that is stopped there and it was long the traditional home of labor in McLean. And damn good pizza.
As You Know By Now
On to lucky contestant number 13!
Rumors I Can’t Confirm
I’m heading out for a bit, I’m sure we’ll know more later.
One Bizarre Twist Is Going Away
Jack! is officially getting out of the race according to the Leader. Open thread for a pool when he’ll try and run again.
Update: What?
UPDATE 2: It’s now clear that Jack! didn’t send in the papers. I have nothing concrete, but something smells.
Ditka to Appear with Cross at Navy Pier
The event has been planned previously to the Senate speculation and had nothing to do with Ditka originally. Ditka will appear and Tom Cross will throw his support behind him, but this does not mean Ditka is necessarily in the race, though obviously it means he is seriously considering it.
UPDATE: Here’s the info from Draft Ditka
HOT: Ditka Confirmed to Attend HRO Event
DraftDitka.com is proud to announce that Coach Mike Ditka is set to appear at the House Republican Organization Fundraiser at Navy Pier.
Press Event/Media Availability is set for 6:30 P.M.
House GOP Leader Tom Cross, HRO Chairman Skip Saviano and Deputy House Leader Brent Hassert are set to endorse a Ditka Candidacy.