Illinois Congressional Races

Pre-Primary: Sullivan D-IL-03

ArchPundit March 10, 2006 No Comments

Raised: 18544.84
Spent: 33872.55
COH: 13832.48

John had a tough time because he was working during the day until the first of the year. The problem right now is he doesn’t have enough for a killer mail piece–and so against my general philosophy of throwing money in at the last minute to candidates–go donate and volunteer now!

Two things here–Lipinski hasn’t done bumpkus in running for office except perhaps planting a clown. He hasn’t done any mailing, nor any other voter outreach besides parades. He’s relatively vulnerable. Second, I think John has his weaknesses as a candidate to date, he’s it and he’s right on the issues. If John can get his message out to Democratic voters, he wins. This isn’t a choice between progressives, but between two conservatives and a moderate-liberal Democrat.

Pre-Primary: Roskam R-IL-06

ArchPundit March 10, 2006 3 Comments

Raised: 73538.29
Spent: 102352.55
COH: 806928.04

I’m assuming the Cheney fundraiser money was after that date so there should be a big next report.

Michael Flanagan and John Fund show up in the donations.

Funniest line items. 6666.67

Pre-Primary: Stover D-IL-19

ArchPundit March 10, 2006 No Comments

Gotta like the guy simply because he’s running against Shimkus.

First report so not much to say:

Raised:15940.22
Spent:10143.81
COH: 16796.41
Self Loans: 11,000

Pre-Primary: Pavich D-IL-11

ArchPundit March 10, 2006 No Comments

Since he’s unopposed this isn’t a high impact report.

He gave back $6500 which is the only oddity–refunds of donations that were too large. It’s not that uncommon, but still unusual.

Raised:11145.18
Spent: 27117.03
COH:174939.53

Things that bring a smile to my face–$5000 each from UAW and SEIU. His fundraising is probably centered on March more than anything so this isn’t a very important report–the Union money is key and it’s primary money so he can go back to the well on March 22nd.

Pre-Primary: Lipinski D-IL-03

ArchPundit March 10, 2006 3 Comments

Raised: $41395.00
Spent: $36165.88
COH: $181590.69

This is just pitiful. Obviously I’m a Sullivan fan, but Lipinski should have been able to raise a half-million without much effort. He obviously isn’t making calls of any significant amount. Just more evidence of why he’s a hack.

The only reason Sullivan has a shot is because Lipinski is a horrid, horrid candidate.

A Comparison of A Grassroots Campaigns

ArchPundit March 10, 2006 19 Comments

Jeff Smith in 2004 was also an original Dean’s Dozen candidate in Missouri-03

For a total Jeff raised $437,519.86 which underperformed his target of $500,000, but he had enough to do most of what he wanted.

TV Ad Buys/production for the Cycle

$85,620

Radio Ad/Production Buys for the Cycle

$41,500

Direct Mail
$105,080

DVD/VHS Production

$12,000

$242,000 in media of different types. He also ran an incredibly effective ground operation.

My point is, complaining about the spending from Duckworth doesn’t hold any water with me. It should have been expected and it’s not extreme in any sense. Campaigns make choices and in the case of the Cegelis campaign they made a choice where their resources were going to go. Christine insisted to me, she was being very effective with the dollars in running the ground operation. That’s fine, but that’s a choice.

Duckworth’s media buys to date

TV (AKP)
$129,500

Direct Mail
$122,600

Total so far
$252,100

That’ll increase between the first of the month and the 21st, but the dollars so far aren’t something out of the ordinary other than the speed in which the money was raised.

One commenter said that Christine has sent out at least one piece now–and that makes sense, but she doesn’t have that much left to spend on it.

Media Retainer/Consultant/Legal/Accounting (Adelstein-Liston)
$23500

That’s a strategic choice and while I’m sure there will be some general mailings now, that’s a choice that the campaign has to live with and it has nothing to do with anything external.

I doubt it can be done–a strong field organization works with a savvy cost effective media strategy and in this case, the media strategy isn’t there. Now, if I’m wrong, Christina will win on the 21st, but either way the outcome that day will be due to strategic choices she made, not because of someone else in the race.

Pre-Primary: Duckworth D-IL-06

ArchPundit March 10, 2006 11 Comments

Raised: 396828.11
Spent: 379213.93
COH: 121957.52

For the cycle that puts her at $517747.12

Before everyone starts the screaming (not if, but when) a half million bucks in a hotly contested primary isn’t much. She may hit $600,000, but that’s still not above expectations in many such races. Hell, McSweeney and Salvi are spending that much of their own money.

Any reasonable grass roots campaign would have planned to go toe to toe with an establishment candidate who was going to spend that much or more. There are only two things that are unusual. First, that the DCCC is this involved (Lapp sent in $250–I’m not thrilled about that, but it’s also to be expected and not nearly as much as Matsui sent to Carnahan in 2004) and how quickly Tammy has raised the cash.

The only other odd thing is how much of it can towards the media portion–because candidates who run over many months have some set costs, a higher proportion goes to those–in this case Duckworth is able to push it into more media. Her direct mail costs just aren’t that high for this sort of race.

More in a bit.

Pre-Primary Bizarre Report Winner John Kelly

ArchPundit March 10, 2006 7 Comments

He ‘raised’ $49,000, but didn’t disburse any money?

There appear to be three corporate donations which are illegal in federal elections.

His self loan is dislcosed in receipts, but no loan report is present.

Signs are reported as in-kind, but over $2100

A $15,000 in kind mailing from a printing company?

It could be incompetence or this clown is about to have a longer relationship with the FEC than his campaign has lasted.

His campaign wages are listed as in-kind?

I assume this is all just jumbled together crap, but this is beyond the typical incompetence for new campaigns.

Someone else is going to have to unravel the relationships between his donors and Lipinski, but this is a friggen disaster. If this guy isn’t a plant, he’s a clown.

Pre-Primary: Cegelis D-IL-06

ArchPundit March 10, 2006 7 Comments

Raised: $90317.44
Spent: $55197.62
COH: $74540.64

Decent raised amount, spending not so important now, but no general mailings to the public. None.

Rothenberg Touts two Illinois Congressional Candidates

ArchPundit March 8, 2006 No Comments

Peter Roskam:

Republicans have rallied around Illinois state Sen. Peter Roskam (R) in their effort to hold onto the seat of retiring Rep. Henry Hyde (R), which is considered politically competitive. Well-spoken and likable, Roskam sounds like a well-versed, mainstream conservative who fits this district well.

Roskam worked on Capitol Hill years ago for both Hyde and Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Texas), so he understands Congress and Congressional campaigns. He?s one of those rare politicians who one minute sounds like a policy wonk and then next talks like a strategist and campaign consultant. I found him refreshing for his candor and insight.

Dan Seals

Democrat Dan Seals is running against Rep. Mark Kirk (R) in Illinois and has little or no chance of winning. But if state and national Democrats have any sense, they?ll find a way to use the African-American businessman?s obvious skills and appeal. A graduate of Boston University, he holds a master?s degree from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and an MBA from the University of Chicago. He currently works for GE Commercial Finance.

Seals may well have a tough time, but he can use his first race to build up a reputation and he is in place in case there is a complete meltdown.

Roskam, many will huff and puff about and let me say straight up, beating Roskam is important to me, very important, but don’t confuse that with thinking he easy to demonize as a right wing zealot. In person, he’s mild, calm, and somewhat likeable. I can’t stand his speaking style personally, but it is very easy going and very, very attractive to many voters. He is very conservative, but he’s also a very good candidate.