Illinois Congressional Races

Dan Seals Interview

Dan graciously gave me 30 minutes of his time and I’ve turned into a podcast.

Download it here as an mp3 or if you use the rss feed, it should show up as a podcast–you can add it to your podcasting client as I expect there to be several more soon, though hopefully my interviewing will improve.

Dan is pretty amazing and I have to say all of the noise about him is well justified. Remember, he’s a Daily Kos/MyDD/Swing State Project netroots candidate so be sure to donate.

The Big Bad Chicago Machine

seems a bit hypocritical when one is being supported by Tom DeLay, Grover Norquist, and the Republican establishment at the center of the Culture of Corruption in DC.

Roskam isn’t an independent operator or a Mr. Smith going to Washington, he’s a movement conservative who has had Tom DeLay and Grover Norquist to raise money and campaign with him. DeLay is at the center of the Abramoff investigation and Norquist is being shown to be one of the conduits for money for Abramoff with his non-profit Americans for Tax Reform, that

Hiram did a good round up on this last year. The issue isn’t, as the Roskam campaign has tried to deflect it towards, that Roskam worked for DeLay in the 1980s. The issue is that Roskam has been a movement conservative receiving support from just such movement conservatives in both 1998 and 2006. The two most prominent supporters are neck deep in the Abramoff scandal.

Roskam brags about his award from Norquist’s Americans for Tax Reform on his web site.

So, on one hand, we have Tammy Duckworth being supported by DCCC chief Rahm Emanuel who was a Daley aide, but isn’t under investigation as far as anyone knows, while two of the most prominent supporters of Peter Roskam during this election cycle are actively under investigation by federal prosecutors.

Patterson made a crack about six degrees of separation in regard to Roskam’s position on Social Security, but the charges about machine politics with Duckworth are far more like six degrees of separation especially since Durbin and Obama recruited her originally. On the other hand, Peter Roskam is strongly supported by two of the major figures in what many scholars such as Norm Ornstein and Tom Mann view as the biggest Congressional scandal in over a century.

Maybe John Patterson Can Win a Prize

I generally like Patterson (and Krol)–he does good work, but in the Roskam Social Security story, he’s let the campaign off on the issue of Social Security Privatization. The interesting thing about it is that Roskam hasn’t even appeared on Jeff Berkowitz’s Public Affairs–a fairly friendly venue, though one in which Jeff would pin him down on as many issues as possible.

Talking Points Memo is running a contest to pin down Republican candidates who have not taken clear positions on Social Security. Two of the first candidates are Tom Kean and Illinois’ own Peter Roskam.

The post by Patterson is gone (nothing nefarious, they don’t archive all of their posts at Animal Farm), but the basic point was Roskam’s campaign replied, but no answer was given regarding Social Security instead offering a reason why Roskam was not at the vote though he made most of the votes that day in Springfield.

A fine way this could shape up.

So, if you can get him on record on Social Security Privatization, Josh has some gifts for you–or even if you can just get him avoiding the question on tape….

Pavich Goal

He’s shooting to hit $25,000 for his ACT Blue Donations today!

As of this minute, he’s at $20,099.99

Okay, someone donating to this campaign likes hitting odd numbers, but more to the point, no one, and I mean no one has contributed through ArchPundit so I challenge you all to help him hit that goal!

There have been donations to Duckworth, Seals and Laesch which are fantastic too. If you prefer those that’s great, and let me remind you, Bean is shooting for a similar number through tonight!

Cook Moves IL-06 to Toss Up

CQ has it as a lean Republican

The Cook Political Report Take:
OUR TAKE FROM THE TRENCHES
House Editor Amy Walter looks at the political landscape in the House.

House Rating Changes
June 29, 2006

In today’s update, the number of competitive seats remains the same, but four Republican seats move from Lean Republican to Toss-Up (FL-22, IL-06, CT-04 and NC-11) and the open Democratic seat in OH-06 moves from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic.

On May 19, the last time we updated the Competitive House Race Chart, we expanded the number of competitive Republican-held seats from 24 to 36 and reduced the number of Democratic-held competitive seats from 11 to 10.

In our latest evaluation, the overall number of competitive races stays the same, but it has become clear that four races in Republican-held districts have become more competitive, while one open Democratic race has become less competitive.

Moved from Lean Republican to Toss Up are: Clay Shaw (FL-22), Chris Shays (CT-04), Charles Taylor (NC-11) and IL-06 (Open: Henry Hyde)

Moved from Democratic Toss-Up to Lean Democratic is OH-06 (Open: Ted Strickland)

While the numbers suggest that this district is not as vulnerable as the three other Republican-held open seats in toss up (CO-07, IA-01 and AZ-08), it is clear that the contest to replace GOP Rep. Henry Hyde in this suburban Chicago district is going to be very close.

A recent poll taken for Democratic nominee and Iraq war vet Tammy Duckworth showed that she was tied with Republican state Sen. Peter Roskam at 40 percent. Roskam is a solid candidate with a hefty bank account and real base in the district. But, even Republicans admit that the political environment makes this a much more difficult race for Roskam. Duckworth will be portrayed as a carpetbagger with no real legislative experience. Yet, her profile as a war veteran who has no voting record to exploit makes her a tough target.

Full Cook Ratings here

Help Out Your Congressional Candidates

Markos gives Dan Seals a little love, okay, a lot

I’ve been having a hard time balancing out coverage of 5 competitive House races and then the statewide races, but Dan appears to be doing far better than anyone expected.

That said, I’ve set up a page at Act Blue for you to donate to any of the five campaigns–actually Hare’s isn’t up there yet, so the four competitive races are there. Today is the last day of the quarter so help where you can.

Bean needs $5300 TODAY to meet her goal and I’m sure Duckworth and Pavich are trying to hit goals (if the campaigns send me where they are as the day progresses, I’ll keep updating throughout the day). David Loebsack of IA-02 is listed as are the other Democratic Illinois challengers and IA-01 and IA-03. Finally, you can donate to the 8th and 10th CD Democrats there, and the Lake County Party.

I’ll also have a state race page up in a bit–this is the end of the half-year reporting period and the last time until about a month out for it to show up and build momentum.

Give. Give. Give. And then volunteer. And if you can’t give at all, just volunteer.

No, Scheuer’s just an idiot

Sorry Jeff, anyone running a campaign who relies upon some clown who doesn’t sign a contract or pay someone money is an idiot. It’s pretty much the definition of idiocy.

The number of morons who think they’ll represent themselves as a consultant or operative in campaigning is astounding and to be that naive and then not to check up on the guy is one of the dumbest things I’ve ever heard. It’s dumber than doing pay for play radio at the minimum price and then having the host attack you after they cash the check.

My college advisor complained about my coverage of his petition snafu, which was a far smaller number. And he’s even more pissed at himself for not monitoring the situation better. I certainly don’t owe it to Bill Scheuer to be nice to him because I support Bean.

This isn’t a mistake someone who just fell off the turnip truck makes, it’s the sort of mistake someone still on the turnip truck makes. Maybe someone did pull one over on him and if there is some evidence great. Right now, it’s Bill Scheuer and a conspiracy theory. Given the Constantine guy doesn’t appear to be the guy who actually showed from the articles.

But how could you possibly trust your entire campaign to some clown you don’t know anything about, you haven’t signed a contract with and you haven’t paid? What was the other plan? If he has union support, he should have been able to get some troops and some suggestions for a reputable consultant. Or at least done a google search for Anthony Constantine Illinois which before this story broke turns up the only guy who fits any sort of political description is an employee in Lipinski’s office. Or I go to the Board of Elections database and see the only donations/expenditures to this company are related to the 23rd Ward.

You might be able to convince me someone committed fraud, but so do people who send out the Nigerian e-mails. The people who fall for those are idiots too.

If you take the Progressive Punch ratings, Lipinski comes in at 79, Bean comes in at 75 out of 100. Bean is in a 56% Bush District. Lipinski is in a 59% Kerry District. Bean’s vote on bankruptcy reform was inexcusable, but I also can see that any of the Republicans who ran would have done the same thing.

Further, Lipinski’s environmental commitment is especially questionable given he has a good friend in one of the worst polluters in the nation, Holcim.

Finally, trade issues count less to me than social issues. CAFTA was a bad bill, but I’m rather agnostic on it similar to Brad DeLong. Where Bean deviates from Democratic positions the most are less obnoxious to me than where Lipinski deviates.